This is setting up to be a very interesting Week 8. Injuries are really taking hold for several teams, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans likely totally remaking their wide receiver corps this week. We also get the projected return of Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. All of this news factors into the Week 8 Underdog selections.
For those new to Underdog and looking to get in on the action, use the promo code ROTONFL at the following link for a bonus on your first deposit.
Higher
DeVonta Smith vs. NYG – higher than 10.55 fantasy points
It's a bit risky to count on any portion of the Philadelphia Eagles' offense right now. They often find a way to get the job done, but whether it's on the ground or in the air and through which players the production will flow is very hard to project. The Giants' defense gives up production prolifically both on the ground and through the air, but Smith jumps to the top of my list because WR A.J. Brown has yet to practice this week (through Thursday). Even if Brown is active, it doesn't appear he'll be playing at full strength. That should push more targets toward Smith against a Giants' secondary that has allowed the most targets and yards to opposing wide receivers this season.
Tez Johnson at NO – higher than 44.5 receiving yards
Jaylin Noel vs. SF – higher than 33.5 receiving yards
We can group Johnson and Noel together, because the logic of the selections is the same despite the pair not being linked in any true way. Johnson will see his snap rate and opportunity in the Tampa Bay offense jump significantly in the absence of both WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He's worked as the deep threat in the Tampa Bay offense (13.0 aDOT, 17 yards per catch, three of his 10 catches have gone for more than 20 yards), so he'll reach this projection against the New Orleans Saints, both through the anticipated increase in volume or through his typical big-play ways.
As for Noel, both Houston Texans WRs Christian Kirk and Nico Collins appear likely to be out Sunday against the 49ers. That combination should allow Noel to both get on the field (Kirk) and benefit from vacated targets (Collins). He showcased that in Week 7 against the Seahawks, commanding seven targets despite playing only 44 percent of the snaps. That rate may be unsustainable, but Noel should be on the field more frequently Sunday.
Courtland Sutton vs. DAL – higher than 59.5 receiving yards
The Commanders simply didn't have the offensive pieces healthy in Week 7, but otherwise the Dallas secondary has been among the best matchups in the league for opposing wide receivers this season, allowing 9.93 yards per target to the position. Broncos WR Marvin Mims (27.5 receiving yards) is another tempting "higher" selection, but Sutton is the relative constant in the Denver offense, accruing at least six targets in five of seven games. While more would be preferable, six targets would give him a realistic chance of hitting this projection.
Zay Flowers vs. CHI – higher than 65.5 receiving yards
Assuming Lamar Jackson is back as anticipated, this Flowers selection is backed by both numbers and narrative. Jackson is expected to start for the first time since Week 4, and he will need to be heroic to save the Ravens' season. He has a strong chance to do so against a Chicago Bears' secondary that has allowed 7.73 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks (sixth-highest in the league) and 9.12 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (fourth-highest in the league). The risk is that Jackson spreads targets widely, so Flowers doesn't get enough opportunity, but he saw at least eight targets in three of Jackson's four starts this season, and in two of Jackson's three games. This feels like a spot for a statement game from the Ravens offense, and Flowers should contribute heavily.
Lower
Mark Andrews vs. CHI – lower than 34.5 receiving yards
We can stick with Baltimore, but going negative this time around. It didn't show up in the stat sheet, but Ravens TE Isaiah Likely took a step forward in his return from a foot injury in Week 6 by running 32 rates (82.4 percent of drop backs). Both the total and rate were season-high marks by a significant margin and should create some concern for Andrews. The Ravens' offense can sustain two tight ends as well as Flowers when Jackson is fully healthy, but Likely is the more probable of the two to deliver splash plays down the field relative to Andrews.
Mac Jones at HOU – lower than 225.5 passing yards
There's rightfully a lot of focus on the Texans' offensive woes, but their defense has been excellent. Most relevant for this selection is that they are something of a run funnel. That's not because the unit is bad against the run, but they do allow the fourth-fewest yards per attempt (6.42) to opposing quarterbacks in the league. That's not what 49ers QB Mac Jones wants to see after struggling through a Week 7 win over Atlanta.
Malik Washington at ATL – longest reception lower than 14.5 yards
There was some hype for Washington after Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill was lost for the season, but he's become the ultimate checkdown option in the offense instead of filling Hill's role. Washington has an aDOT of 3.5 this season, with the likes of Arizona Cardinals WR Greg Dortch and teammate Nick Westbrook-Ikhine among the only regulars posting a remotely comparable number. Atlanta is quietly a very tough matchup as well, allowing the third-fewest yards per target in the league (6.99)
