This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We are unfortunately running out of regular season football, but we still have Week 16 and the top five picks in the Circa Sports Million.
Browns -2.5 at 
Texans, 1444 picks, 926 net: We have line value, with the Browns a cheap -3 around pick deadline time and we have Joe Flacco, perhaps the greatest Browns QB of all, at least since their 1999 rebirth. I only half joke. He now has 11 wins at Cleveland Browns Stadium, tied with Ben Roethlisberger for 2nd highest as both only trail Baker Mayfield with 19. Of course most of Elite Joe's wins came as the Ravens QB and he will not get to add to his total this week as the game is in Houston. The Browns opened the week +2.5 but then it flipped fairly quickly as it became apparent CJ Stroud would miss the game. Cleveland still has value giving under a field goal. The Texans faced a virtually identical situation and point spread in Week 14 and won at Tennessee behind excellent defense and just enough from backup QB Case Keenum. They face a much taller task against the Browns. We will ride with Team Flacco.
Dolphins PK vs 
Cowboys, 1262 picks, 219 net : Long before the Monday Night Football theme song covered Phil Collins, we had the original version on Miami Vice. Something has to give in this game.. The Cowboys look like the 2007 Patriots at home, then turn into the 2023 Patriots on the road. The Dolphins torch all things mediocre and bad (well, except the Titans) and have struggled vs the upper echelon. Tyreek Hill returns and it is a rare chance to get Miami at home without having to give points.. "I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Lord. And I've been waiting for this moment for all my life, oh Lord"...OK that is a bit of an exaggeration, but we took the Dolphins. Also a bit of an exaggeration: the urban myth around In the Air Tonight.
Seahawks -2.5 at 
Titans, 1256 picks, 697 net: At the risk of sounding like a broken record; Line Value! Geno Smith returns to start at QB for the Seahawks and they now sit at -3.5. Meanwhile Ryan Tannehill returns at the Titans helm in place of the injured Will Levis. My personal eye test does not suggest much impact from either QB change, but the numbers say I need to see an ophthalmologist. Smith carries a 6.07 Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt (ANY/A) vs 5.39 for Drew Lock, and a 55.9 Total QBR vs Lock's 46. Levis (5.79, 36.2) beats out Tannehill (4.31, 33.2) as well. We will roll with Seattle even with their short week off an emotional win on MNF.
Falcons -1 over 
Colts, 1221 picks, 197 net: Both teams sit firmly in the NFL mediocrity glob. The Colts have won 5 of 6, have played well on the road and would make the playoffs if the season ended today The Falcons just lost to the lowly Panthers, underuse their high level skill players on a weekly basis, sit at 6-8 and out of the playoffs and will finish the season with Taylor Heinicke back at QB. The Colts get RB Jonathan Taylor back, but not WR Michael Pittman. The line has drifted more towards the Falcons as they started the week as very short underdogs and now are -2.5. Atlanta has the urgency factor as they need to win out and get help to make the postseason. We had the Falcons as our sixth best pick but they made our card in place of the Bucs as we did not want to guess as to who ultimately starts at QB for the Jags.
Bucs PK vs 
Jaguars, 1146 picks, 413 net: Lots of contestants did actually want to guess who starts at QB for the Jags. Answer: Trevor Lawrence. The Bucs come in off three straight wins, vs the Jags at three straight losses. Yes, we originally had the Bucs, but upon further review, I like the Jags in this spot. The spread itself has flipped up and back around PK, I reserve the right to flip along with it.
Yes, we have Browns, Seahawks, Dolphins and Falcons, so four of our picks landed in the top five. No, that does not particularly help us move up in the standings. We have not gone the Game Theory route. We want to pick winners and will take line edges we like. We passed on the Broncos -6 in the pool even with the line up to -7 and even -7.5.
Our other pick?
Commanders +3 at 
Jets: It is the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl of NFL games, minus the absolutely terrifying Spuddy Buddy. When two awful teams meet, I like getting the points. Jacoby Brissett looked excellent in a late cameo at Commanders QB, which makes you wonder whether they salvage the season if they went that route early on. Terry McLaurin felt like he had more Fantasy points in two drives with Brissett than the rest of the season combined. Sam Howell will still start, which has meant lots of passing volume and not enough to show for it. The bar vs the Trevor Siemian-led Jets is unlikely to be too high.
Week 15 Review
Week 15 went very meh for the Circa Millions V pool as a whole, as the masses hit on just 47.77% of their picks, the worst showing since Week 7.
The Titans jumped out to a 13-0 lead vs a Texans team missing CJ Stroud, their top receivers and several other key players and came back for a 19-16 overtime win. That tripped up 1350 net picks and yours truly, by far the biggest lean on one side in Week 15. The consensus picks overall went just 7-8-1, though the top 5 did go 3-1-1.
We went 3-2 on the week, hitting on the Colts, Bills and Ravens while getting plowed with my Giants in New Orleans and the aforementioned Titans loss. That lands us at 7-3 in Q4 and 42-32-1 (56.7%) overall. Yeah, good enough to profit if I bet all our picks and got the same spreads, but tied for 957th place in a tough crowd. SAINTS31-1 spiked a 5-0 Week 15 and leads us by 12 points and has a 2 point lead over 2nd place. I am resigned to the fact that we will not take home the $1 million. The top 100 spots all cash, and the bottom of that group has 48 points. A hot runout maybe gets us there, though it would take a Festivus Miracle. Cashing in Q4 remains more the goal, as our 7 points tied for 491st and just three entries have gone 10-0.
The top 10 (plus ties) after Week 14 had a good week net-net, though two players accounted for the entirety of the overperformance.
