This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Here are the most popular picks for Week 3 of the Circa Million.
- Patriots -2.5 at Jets -- 1548 picks, 1135 net
- Lions -3 vs Falcons -- 1440 picks, 858 net
- Commanders +6.5 vs Bills -- 1349 picks, 702 net
- Titans +3.5 at Browns -- 1344 picks, 683 net
- Buccaneers +5 vs Eagles -- 1199 picks, 433 net
The Dolphins just missed the cut with 1,189 picks, but interestingly the Broncos had 1,023 backers, making this game quite the battle as far as the pool is concerned. On a net basis, the top four remain the same, while the Colts slip into the 5th slot with 626 more picks than the hosting Ravens.
As is common so far, there is not much line value in the top picks. The Commanders are down to +6 in most spots as of Saturday night and actually +5 at Circa while the Lions have extra juice at -3 and reduced juice at -3.5. There is not much of a theme to the consensus picks here either as we have a road favorite, a home favorite, a road dog and two home dogs.
There is a bit of a weather angle on the top of the board however as the Commanders and Colts (in Baltimore) are catching points in what looks like somewhat sloppy conditions. On the other hand, the forecast looks messy here in New Jersey and the short favorite Patriots are the most popular Week 3 pick. It is easy to see why as New England has taken 14 straight outright in this series and the Jets have not shown much in the way of offense this season (or ever) with Zach Wilson at QB. What's more, there is this nugget from Steve Makinen over at VSiN.com. "Teams that start 0-2 SU in the NFL are 23-23 SU but 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010."
Circa Sports Million V Picks
We will attempt to claw our way up the leaderboard with the following picks.
- Chargers +1
- Titans +3.5
- Lions -3
- Panthers +6.5
- Eagles -5
The masses agreed with two of our picks, the Titans and Lions. We are banking on the Titans ability to muck up many of their games combined with the Browns questionable ability to exploit Tennessee's weak pass defense. The Panthers have looked awful so far, but it is Andy Dalton to the rescue this week! We hope. The line is down Seahawks -5 as of late Saturday.
Week 2 Redux
Composite Week 2 results in the Circa Millions saw a modest dip from Week 1. It was suboptimal for contest players that three games pushed on the Contest Lines; Falcons-Packers and Saints-Panthers in addition to the lightly played Thursday Eagles-Vikings game. Circa awards a half point on the push games which is better than a loss of course but not helpful going towards weekly and year end prizes as you will certainly need to get over 70 percent to cash. The consensus picks went 7-6-3.
Just two of the 5274 entries are at a perfect 10-0, while two more have gone 9-0-1. Another two are 8-0-2 which puts them tied in points with the 20 more who have gone 9-1.
We went a "not helpful" 2-2-1 on the week, pushing with the Falcons, losing with the Bears and Giants and winning with the Steelers and the Rams. Thank you Sean McVay. We sit with 6.5 points at 6-3-1 overall. There are quarterly prizes after Week 4, which makes the upcoming slate "moving week" like Saturday on the PGA tour.
Net-net players hit 51.20 percent on the picks on the week, down from 52.76 percent in Week 1. The overall Win% is now 51.98 percent, counting the ties as half wins.
The total picks on the consensus side of each game slipped a bit in Week 2 as well, but still hit at a 55.4 percent clip.
As for betting "systems" that tail the top 5 picks, they went 3-1-1 outright when ranked by the total number of picks. "Good teams win, great teams cover" according to Brent Musberger, so put the Giants in that camp. Or not, as evidenced by being thoroughly outclassed by the Niners on Thursday. The G-Men comeback did provide a great escape for the 1292 Circa Survivor contestants that used them in Week 2.
The Week 2 winners that were favored and did also cover were the Chiefs and Dolphins while the Titans won outright as 3 point dogs. While the Falcons pushed at -1 on the contest line, they most likely lost for actual bettors as they climbed to as high as -3 by game time. Weighting betting amounts by the quantity of picks and using a "unit" of 10 percent of that quantity produced the following results.
Again, this counts the Falcons as a push. Weighting by the net number of picks only went 2-2-1 as it replaced the Dolphins with the Broncos. Denver looked great for a half, then for the second straight week saw their offense virtually disappear after intermission. The "system" results were as follows.