This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We've reached Week 8 of the Circa Million contest, and we'll dive right into the picks. The top five this week are as follows.
Vikings pick'em at 
Packers, 1,401 picks, 374 net -- The spread has fluctuated around even, with the Vikings very short favorites as of Saturday. These look like two teams headed in opposite directions so I get the Vikings love. I would only note in the "snow globe" that is the NFL it is never that simple. Shake it up and maybe the Pack show up at home.
Texans -3 at 
Panthers, 1,176 picks, 258 net -- The actual line has moved to Texans -3.5, so some edge with Houston. We bit. 
Broncos +7.5 vs 
Chiefs, 1,135 picks, 378 net -- The line edge with the Chiefs down to -7, a "revenge" angle with the Broncos having just lost this matchup two weeks ago, and just generally getting points in a divisional home game makes this a logical choice.
Titans +3 vs 
Falcons, 1,106 picks, 468 net -- This is yet another game with line edge as the Falcons are down to -2.5. Rookie Will Levis gets his first career start, but the Titans have not had the best quarterback play this year, so maybe the change helps? The Falcons are the definition of up and down in a schedule that has them very short favorites or underdogs just about every week.
Jets -3 at 
Giants, 1,095 picks, 409 net -- Both teams have played better as of late, the Giants notably with a less hideous offensive line and Tyrod Taylor getting his third straight start at quarterback. His small sample size Adjusted Net Yards per attempt of 6.41 would rank 10th in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify. Daniel Jones ranks 32nd of 32 qualifiers at 2.82 and Jets QB Zach Wilson is 30th at 4.09. Hey, I am a Giants homer but generally bullish on the Jets going forward. I'm not giving three here, though.
I find the sixth most popular pick, the Bengals, the most interesting. The contest line has the Bengals +3.5 at the 49ers but the actual line was back up at +5.5 by the time the picks were due with Brock Purdy clearing the concussion protocol. Despite that a sizable block took the Bengals at a disadvantageous line, including yours truly. My picking partner and I literally texted about it before submitting the picks and with us firmly mid-pack we sided with game theory -- or really just contest-specific strategy -- and went with Cincy on the theory that we wanted an unpopular pick sitting 10 games out of the lead. Plus 3.5 to 5.5 does not cross particularly key numbers. Apparently lots of others used that same strategy. When I traded equity options in what seems like a past life we used "fade the fading faders" as a euphemism for over-thinking a trade.
We will attempt to escape the middling glob (more on that below) with the following picks.
Eagles -6.5 at Commanders
Colts +1 vs Saints- Texans -3 at Panthers
Rams +6.5 at Cowboys
Bengals +3.5 at 49ers
Week 7 Review
So much for "Wisdom of the Crowds." Circa Million contestants put up their worst showing of the season in Week 7 -- by a lot. Players as a whole hit on just 44.1 percent of their picks and now in aggregate have hit barely over 50 percent. We went 2-3 and dragged it down ever so slightly. Paul the Octopus might have made better selections.
The top five selections went 1-4, the four picks with the highest net on one side all lost and the consensus choices overall went a hideous 4-9. Adding up the totals on the consensus side hit at an impossibly bad 29.3 percent and now in sum sit below 50 percent.
We sit at 18-16-1 on the season and my big discovery is one I have known since I was around eight years old and my dad had me pick the games in a competition he did with a friend. It is very tough to deviate much from .500, even for a group that should skew towards the "sharp" side, Here is a distribution of the scores of all 5,273 contestants, some of whom miss the deadline some weeks.
