NFL Picks: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 13

NFL Picks: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 13

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 13

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

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NFL Week 13 Odds

BYES: Ravens, Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Giants

Week 13 Schedule

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys -8.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED COWBOYS -3.5/45.5 

TOTAL HAS NOW MOVED TO 47.0-47.5; COWBOYS AS HIGH AS -9.0

Los Angeles Chargers -6.0 at New England Patriots O/U 40.5 OPENED CHARGERS -1.5/42.5

TOTAL HAS NOW MOVED TO 39.5-40.0; CHARGERS NOW -5.0-5.5 BASED ON KEENAN ALLEN STATUS

Detroit Lions -4.0 at New Orleans Saints O/U 45.5 OPENED LIONS -1.5/46.5

SAINTS HAVE NUMEROUS KEY INJURIES 

Atlanta Falcons -3.0 at New York Jets O/U 34.0 OPENED JETS -6.5/36.5

NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE FALCONS IN THIS SPOT, MONEY COMING IN ON JETS WHO ARE NOW +1.5 OR +2.0.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 O/U 39.5 OPENED STEELERS -6.5/40.0

TOTAL HAS POPPED UP TO 41.0-41.5

Indianapolis Colts -2.0 at Tennessee Titans O/U 43.0 OPENED TITANS -2.5/41.0

Miami Dolphins -9.5 at Washington Commanders O/U 50.5 OPENED DOLPHINS -3.5/49.0

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans -3.5 O/U 46.0 OPENED BRONCOS -4.0/44.0

TOTAL IS NOW 47.5

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.0 O/U 37.0 OPENED BUCS -1.0/40.0

SEEING PANTHERS MONEY COMING IN, BUCS INJURY ISSUES ON BAKER MAYFIELD, CHRIS EVANS

San Francisco 49ers -3.0 at Philadelphia Eagles O/U 47.0 OPENED EAGLES -2.5/45.5

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams -5.0 O/U 39.5 OPENED BROWNS -1.0/43.0

LINE HAS COME DOWN ON RAMS TO -3.5

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at Green Bay Packers O/U 42.5 OPENED CHIEFS -5.5/41.0

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 O/U 39.0 OPENED BENGALS -1.0/41.0

Week 13 Key Injury News 

Jaguars - OT Cam Robinson (knee out 3-6 weeks)

Bucs - QB Baker Mayfield (ankle, MRI negative)

Eagles - TE Dallas Goedert (hoping to play Week 13), OL Lane Johnson (groin), LB Zach Cunningham (hamstring), DT Fletcher Cox (groin)

Browns - DE Myles Garrett (shoulder), WR Amari Cooper (ribs, Xrays negative), QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion)

Saints - WR Chris Olave (concussion)

Panthers - Fired HC Frank Reich

Week 13 observations

We are reaching the point where line moves of 6 or greater are the threshold for a writeup. Most games have had line moves of at least 3 points with a lot based on quarterback situations. Weather will start to become a factor in outdoor games in the Northern states, so keep an eye on it.

Highest point spread – Dolphins/Commanders -9.5

Lowest point spread – Colts/Titans -2.0

Highest total – Dolphins/Commanders 50.5

Lowest total – Falcons/Jets 34.0

Four games with totals over 46.0 - Seahawks/Cowboys, Dolphins/Commanders, Broncos/Texans, 49ers/Eagles 

Four games with totals of 39 or less – Falcons/Jets, Panthers/Bucs, Browns/Rams, Bengals/Jaguars 

Three games with lines at least -7.5 or higher – Seahawks/Cowboys, Dolphins/Commanders, Bengals/Jaguars 

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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets

This game originally opened at Jets -6.5 and every game from here on out will probably have a significant line move based on the Aaron Rodgers injury and terrible backup quarterback play. 

The Falcons are now -3.0 favorites which seems low, even though this is a total of a 9.5-point line move. The total opened at a low number of 36.5 and has dropped to 34.0. I can see this total continuing to drop based on the terrible offenses and strong Jets defense.

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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders

The Dolphins opened as -3.5 road favorites and reopened last week at -6.5. There has been another three-point move in favor of Miami, bringing them to -9.5 road favorites. The total has also moved up from 49.0 to 50.5.  

The Commanders have lost three in a row and five out of their last six, including an embarrassing home loss to the Giants, 31-12. Their passing defense has been shredded repeatedly and now gets to face the fast-paced Miami Dolphins.

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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

The Broncos have won five in a row, yet find themselves as three-point underdogs in a game with an original open of Denver as -4.0 road favorites. The Houston Texans have been impressive under head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, and they are now favored by -3.0 or even crossing over to -3.5. 

The Texans lost at home to the Jaguars, 24-21, in a battle for control in the AFC South. Believe it or not, the Broncos, who are also 6-5, are now looking at a potential playoff spot.  Both teams are projected to have a 41 percent chance to make the playoffs. 

The total has seen an uptick going from 44.0 to 46.0. 

NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams

The Browns originally opened as one-point road favorites, but they just cannot buy a break as quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Myles Garrett, and Amari Cooper are listed as questionable. The Rams are now five-point home favorites for a full six-point line move. This number could climb as high as seven if all three players listed above are ruled out. 

The total has taken a hit as well going from the opening number of 43.0 and now sitting at 39.0. 

NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Another huge line swing to the other side in this one, as the Bengals originally opened as -1.0 road favorites. But injuries on the Bengals' side, along with a strong performance by the Jaguars (8-3) now have the Jags as -8.5 point home favorites. 

The Bengals are already without quarterback Joe Burrow and could also be down Tee Higgins, who is listed as questionable. The total opened low at 41.0 and has gone down to 39.0. 

If you're betting on the NFL this season, RotoWire has a full suite of betting pages and tools with everything you need from the latest NFL odds to weekly NFL picks along with a wide variety of NFL futures and NFL player futures

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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