NFL Picks: NFL Player Props and Expert Picks for Week 12

NFL Picks: NFL Player Props and Expert Picks for Week 12

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Betting: NFL Best Bets, Teasers, and Player Props for Week 12

Last article: 0-5, -5.55 units 

Season: 66-101, -44.82 units

Sports betting is now live in Maryland, so bettors located in MD are now able to take advantage of the  BetMGM Maryland Bonus Code for first bet insurance up to $1,000. Ohio is next in line to launch sports betting, and those located in the Buckeye State can jump in on the BetMGM Ohio Bonus Code.

49ers -3 / Eagles -1, -120 (DraftKings)

Good spot for a 6-point teaser, as the 49ers offense has been rolling since the addition of Christian McCaffrey, while the Packers don't seem capable of outplaying the Eagles in Philadelphia. Both the 49ers and Eagles look like solid home favorites, while we get to cross over several key numbers by using the teaser. A third option (moving the teaser from -120 up to +160) would be taking the Jets -1 at home vs. the Trevor Siemian led Bears.

Jeff Wilson over 83.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

Tall number, but a very favorable situation for new Miami RB Jeff Wilson. The Dolphins are listed as 14-point home favorites over the Texans, who rank dead-last in the league in rushing yards allowed (178.9), almost 25 yards per game more than the second-worst team (Detroit). Meanwhile, Wilson's backfield mate Raheem Mostert is not expected to play this week after being listed as doubtful with a knee injury. With Wilson averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry this year (even better with Miami), and likely to get a lot of work in a great matchup with a favorable game script, he's a candidate to go over a hundred yards for the second week in a row.

Lamar Jackson over 52.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

This is one of the smaller totals I've seen on Jackson over the last few years, which probably doesn't make sense as often as he's been carrying the ball recently. Jackson has recorded double-digit rushing attempts in six of his last eight games, and has covered this total at the same rate (six for his last eight). With Jackson averaging almost seven yards per carry, and likely to carry the ball 10+ times, there's good value at this number.

Joe Burrow over 278.5 passing yards, -110 (FanDuel)

With the Bengals offense ranking 4th in passing yards per game, and the Titans defense ranking 30th in passing yards allowed (while ranking #2 in rushing yards allowed), there seems little doubt that Burrow will be throwing a lot, and he seems likely to find some success. He may even be helped by Samaje Perine taking over as the Bengals starting RB, as Perine generally comes in on third-down passing situations. Good spot for the overall QB4, facing a team who ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to QB's, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to WR's.

Latavius Murray under 62.5 rushing yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Murray takes over as the Broncos RB1 this week after the release of Melvin Gordon, which has pushed his rushing total into the 60's. It should be noted however that Denver has split carries with running backs all year (even with Javonte Williams starting), and there are rumors circulating that Marlon Mack will see a decent portion of the carries this week (perhaps partially because Murray has been limited in practice with a wrist injury). We also must consider that Murray is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, so even good volume may not be enough to send him over here.

Marlon Mack anytime touchdown, +600 (FanDuel)

While Latavius Murray (+140) is clearly more likely to score a touchdown (three TD's in his last four games, despite splitting time with Gordon), this seems like a very large price for a running back who could potentially see half the carries, and it was generally a toss-up between Murray and Gordon as to which player might score a rushing TD in any given week. Worth a chance at this big price, especially with the Panthers having allowed 13 rushing TD's over 11 games. Another option would be taking both of the Murray/Mack combo, with two-thirds of the bet on Murray and one-third on Mack.

DeAndre Hopkins over 7.5 receiving yards, +115 (DraftKings)

Hopkins has covered this total in four out of five games since his return this year, and he figures to be plenty busy this week with Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz both missing from the lineup, while Moore's replacement Greg Dortch has been limited by a thumb injury (gametime decision). While the Cardinals do get Marquise Brown back this week, he may be eased in slowly after his lengthy absence. Strong chance of Hopkins racking up some receptions today.

Joshua Palmer over 58.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Palmer has emerged as one of the prime receiving threats on the Chargers following injuries to both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and he was able to take advantage of Williams' early exit last week, producing an 8-106-2 receiving line on 10 targets. In fact, that marked the third time in his last four games that Palmer has logged double-digit targets. With Williams remaining out for his game, expect to see Palmer busy once again.

Patrick Mahomes over 12.5 rushing yards, -125 (DraftKings)

While always a moderate running threat, Mahomes has been spiking in that department recently, breaking off several long runs over the last few weeks. He has now covered this number in seven of his last eight games, and has recorded a single long run that covered this number (by itself) in each of his last three games. Strangely, Mahomes' "longest rush" prop is listed at 9.5 yards, with his total rushing yards offered just three yards higher (huh?). Strong play.

Brandon Aiyuk over 53.5 receiving yards, -110 (DraftKings)

Aiyuk has covered this total in five of his last six games, and could potentially see a little extra volume this week, as Deebo Samuel has been limited this week with a hamstring injury. The Saints rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to WR's, so it's not a particularly tough matchup. Good chance that Aiyuk can cover this modest total once again, as he had recorded 80+ receiving yards in four straight games prior to last week.

Randall Cobb over 3.5 receptions, +142 (FanDuel)

With the Packers lacking receiving depth, Cobb returned from injury last week and immediately became one of their top receiving options, catching all six of his targets for 72 yards. Big price on a modest reception total for Cobb, especially in a game where the Packers are likely to be playing from behind.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Walter Hand
Walter is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, and longtime successful fantasy player in both football and baseball.
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