This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 4 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Now that we have three weeks in the books, we have more cluster injuries, but more of a sense of where teams stand.
The key here is figuring out what games will go under and what team totals will go under.
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Latest Odds For This Week in The NFL
For more, take a look at NFL Week 4 odds.
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) O/U 47.5
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints O/U 44.5
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U 48.5
Buffalo Bills (-3.0) @ Baltimore Ravens O/U 53.5
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) O/U 42.5
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) O/U 50.0
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) @ Houston Texans O/U 46.5
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) O/U 43.5
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3.0) O/U 40.0
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0) O/U 48.5
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) O/U 41.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-1.0) O/U 44.5
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (-11.0) O/U 41.0
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.0) O/U 44.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 45.5
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.0) O/U 44.0
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Seattle Seahawks 
at Detroit Lions 
This game has the biggest line movement of the week with the Lions originally opening a -1 home point favorite. This line moved to -5.5 on September 20th and has crept up to -6.5 as of Monday morning. I can see this line getting to -7 which is hard to imagine for the Lions (the last time they were this high of a favorite at home was October 27, 2019, against the Giants). The Lions have been a heavy OVER team at home which is why the total has moved from 46 to 48 and now 50.
The Lions have been competitive in every game and the game against the Eagles in Week 1 has strengthened the bettors' view of them. The Seahawks' offense has been dreadful so far, but they did put up 23 points against the Falcons.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Arizona Cardinals 
at Carolina Panthers 
The game is interesting because both teams have performed below expectations. The Cardinals are still facing injuries to the wide receiver position which has led to Kyler Murray's struggles. Their defense is also one of the worst units in football. The Panthers finally broke their 9-game losing streak with a home win against the Saints, but it was still ugly.
This line opened Cardinals -2.5, went to 3, down to 1.5, and back up to -3 before flipping to the Panthers -1. The total has dropped from 46.5 to 44. This game might end up a shootout, as the Panthers' offense vs. the Cardinals' defense could result in points. The Cardinals will have to push the ball in the air to keep pace.
NFL Week 4 Line Movement: New England Patriots 
at Green Bay Packers 
This game is our quarterback injury of the week with Mac Jones out with a high ankle sprain. The Packers opened -5 and climbed to -6.5 about a week ago. Once the lines officially opened for Week 4, the Packers moved to -8.5, and now sit at -11.0. The 6-point line move for the change in quarterbacks (Mac Jones to Brian Hoyer) is standard.
The total has also moved, dropping from 42.5 to 41.0. It is rare you see a double-digit favorite with such a low total which makes it hard to cover. The concern in this game is that the Patriots just are not able to mount any offense and end up with 10 points or less.
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NFL Week 4 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs 
at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
One of the teams impacted the most so far this season has been the Bucs. The injuries/suspensions to the offensive line and wide receiver positions have made their offense look pedestrian with 19, 20, and 12 points scored in the first three games. Last year, they scored 31, 48, and 24 points through the first three games. On the positive side, their defense has allowed just 9 points per game.
The line was originally Bucs -2.5, but moved to Chiefs -1.0 on September 20th. It has climbed to -3.0 as of September 26th morning. The Chiefs and Bucs are coming off close losses and they are 2-1. The total has dropped significantly from 48.5 to 45.5 which is hard to imagine based on what both teams were expected to be. The OVER could be in play here, with the Bucs getting Mike Evans and Julio Jones back.
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