This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: NFL Week 6 Player Props To Target
Last week: 9-12, -3.71 units
Season: 31-44, -17.17 units
Jaylen Warren over 19.5 rushing yards, -120 (DraftKings)
Steelers RB1 Najee Harris has been ineffective this season, which has resulted in Jaylen Warren receiving more work, and Warren has frankly looked better than Harris in recent weeks. Coach Mike Tomlin even went on record this week saying, "We've been playing Jaylen more, and will continue to do so." Warren is actually just a couple of yards from having covered this number in each of his last three games, and appears set for an expanded roll as the season moves forward.
Jaylen Warren over 10.5 receiving yards, -110 (DraftKings)
Warren also appears to be favored in the passing game over Harris, catching 4-of-5 targets for 39 yards last week as the Steelers spent the entire game in catch-up mode, which could very well happen again with the Steelers being a 10-point underdog. Good chance of Warren catching a couple/few passes and covering this number today.
George Pickens over 45.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
The ultra-talented Pickens seems to have taken over as the Steelers top passing target, right at the same point when Kenny Pickett took over for Mitch Trubisky. Pickens has caught 6-of-8 targets each of the last two weeks, leading the Steelers in yardage both times with 102 and then 83 yards over those two games. Despite that, his yardage prop is being offered twelve yards lower than Diontae Johnson's. Seems good value in this game where the Steelers will almost certainly be playing from behind.
Kenny Pickett over 22.5 completions, -105 (DraftKings)
The Steelers have gone kind of pass-happy since Pickett took over, and he's been pretty accurate so far, completing 10-of-13 passes in his partial-game debut before completing 34-of-52 passes last week. With Najee Harris and the running game lacking some juice, and with the Steelers listed as a 10-point underdog at home, I would expect more of the same as the passing game goes.
Justin Jefferson over 89.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Jefferson seems to be back on the beam after posting roughly 150 receiving yards in each of his last two games (on 13 targets each time). He now faces the Dolphins, who rank 28th in passing defense, and Jefferson should be heavily targeted in this game once again. Good spot for the Vikings best player.
Rhamondre Stevenson over 102.5 rushing + receiving yards, -114 (FanDuel)
I gave this same prop out at 71.5 yards last week, where Stevenson broke out with his biggest game of the year, helped along by an injury to his counterpart Damien Harris. Stevenson figures for a ton of work once again, not only due to the absence of Harris, but also with newcomer Bailey Zappe handling QB duties. I'm expecting to see a whole lot of Rhamondre today, and it clearly helps that he'll be seeing three-down action, with Stevenson being the Patriots top receiving back. Have to think Stevenson continues his breakout this week.
David Njoku over 3.5 receptions, +105 (DraftKings)
Njoku has really take off of late, becoming one of the Browns primary receiving threats since QB Jacoby Brissett took over. Now having recorded 9, 5, and 6 receptions over his last three games, he seems a clear favorite to record four catches as the Patriots defense focuses on stopping the Browns running game.
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Deon Jackson over 59.5 rushing + receiving yards, -114 (FanDuel)
Big opportunity for Deon Jackson this week, as Colts RB's Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have both been ruled out for this game. Jackson looked excellent last week, somewhat surprisingly working as the lead in a split backfield between he and veteran Phillip Lindsay. Perhaps most notably, he caught four passes out of the backfield, where the Colts are generally pretty active (in the Nyheim Hines role). Looks like Jackson will spearhead the Colts rushing attack once again, and should also be active through the air. Anything resembling last week's effort probably gets it done here. Good pickup in fantasy for this week, also.
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Travis Etienne over 35.5 rushing yards, -115 (DraftKings)
I mentioned last week that Etienne appeared to be gaining ground on James Robinson for the lead rushing tole in this offense, and he promptly produced his best game of the year, covering his rushing total before halftime. Not much adjustment on this number, and I would expect he'll cover it once again as his rushing role continues to grow. He also may be in for a positive game script here, as the Jaguars have handled the Colts pretty well over the last few years.
Rondale Moore over 45.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Rondale Moore was rumored to be a fixture in the Cardinals passing attack this year, and that may indeed be the case, as he collected 7-of-8 targets for 68 yards last week, in just his second start back from a hamstring injury, and with his production/usage ticking up dramatically from the first game. Also note that Greg Dortch (who had been putting up good numbers in Moore's absence) completely disappeared for the second week in a row. The Cards appear committed to Moore, and he gets a good matchup here vs. a Seahawks defense that has allowed some big passing plays this year.
Josh Allen over 48.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Josh Allen has been putting up good rushing numbers of late, and note that he logged 11 carries in each of his games vs. Kansas City last year. He seems likely to be on the run once again in this shootout-style game, and I would guess he covers this number on similar volume (Allen is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year).
Patrick Mahomes over 23.5 rushing yards, -135 (DraftKings)
Mahomes has covered this number three weeks in a row (on just four carries apiece), and essentially doubled that output in both games vs. the Bills last year. As mentioned last week, Mahomes will routinely take off if/when the situation calls for it, and he should get plenty of chances to run this afternoon.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, -115 (DraftKings)
Buffalo has looked like the better team much of the year, and of course fared well in Kansas City in both games last year. I think the key to this game is pass defense, as the Bills are excellent in that department (5th in league), whereas the Chiefs have been poor in pass defense, ranking 24th. Lean Bills in this week's featured game.
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