NFL Reactions: Week 11

The theme that I realized this week is one that could have value when planning DFS lineups. Over the weekend, we saw the Packers, Lions, Commanders, Ravens and Eagles all sell out to stop the opposing rushing attack. Each team seemed to do so because they had very little respect for those team's passing attacks. Each of these defenses had varying levels of success in snuffing out the rushing attack. But the Lions and the Packers gave up huge fantasy performances to the passing attacks of their opponents. Sometimes that (along with being contrarian) is why we fade the best running backs in DFS when they may appear to have a favorable matchup. Obviously, this comes with mixed results. But when playing in tournaments, it's just the type of strategy that occasionally pays off.

I'll always try to give actionable advice at the end of each reaction. In addition to the fantasy takes, hopefully, some of these observations can also give you some ideas if you're thinking about placing some Week 12 NFL bets https://www.rotowire.com/betting/nfl/odds/week-12 . Let's take a look at the Sunday afternoon action. 

Sunday Takeaways

• Saquon Barkley had his first bad fantasy performance in eight weeks when playing the Lions. With Detroit paying very little attention to Daniel Jones and the passing attack, they held Berkeley to 35 yards on 17 touches.  Despite the frustration of the floor game, there's very little to worry about Barkley in terms of his potential going forward. This was the first time since early in the season that he failed to record at least 15 PPR points. Based on volume and ability, I still have no hesitation leaving him ranked as a top-three running back the rest of the way. 
• I don't know how Dallas puts the genie back in the bottle. Tony Pollard is playing at a ridiculous level over the last three weeks. Even though Ezekiel Elliott was back in the lineup against the Vikings and scored two touchdowns, Pollard raised the offense to an incredible level of production as both a runner and receiver.  If the Cowboys are serious about making a run at the Super Bowl, Pollard needs to be a big part of the equation. Fantasy managers may still have some level of concern as to Pollard's usage the healthier Elliot becomes, But at this point any potential downside he has is overwhelmingly outweighed by the upside. 
• Since the Bears turned Justin Fields loose just over a month ago, we had yet to see any teams make wholesale adjustments to try to stop him. That finally happened Sunday against the Falcons. Fields carried the ball 18 times, which was one more than David Montgomery. But Fields was unable to break  a run of longer than 17 yards and ended up with just 4.7 yards per carry. Of course, he cashed in for fantasy as he scored over 20 points yet again. Going forward, we'll need to closely monitor his matchups, but Fields should still have enough of a rushing floor to be a top-six quarterback each week. After the game, there was an announcement that he may have hurt his non-throwing shoulder, but as of now, we'll wait for more updates before drawing any other conclusions.
• D'Onta Foreman has been an excellent player since taking over the starting job in Carolina. He had a bad game a few weeks ago against the Bengals.  But in that game, negative game script took away his potential for a strong performance. But this week's game was always going to be difficult. With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Carolina was facing a Baltimore defense that was very used to seeing Mayfield during his days in Cleveland. And although the Baltimore run defense has been just good this year, they recently added Roquan Smith. That made it nearly impossible for Foreman to have a  productive day against the defense that would sell out to stop him. Going forward, he'll have excellent upside in positive matchups but scary downside against the better defenses in the league. 
• Since Week 3, Lamar Jackson hasn't had his trademark upside. He's been held to fewer than 19 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. In the two games he surpassed that total, he hasn't reached 25 fantasy points. With the high-draft investment that it took to acquire him on draft day, he's been a disappointment after a hot start to the season. At this point, he should be considered a solid floor play because of his rushing. But  largely due to a lack of weapons, it would seem unreasonable to think that he'll have more than an occasional ceiling game going forward. 
• For both Derrick Henry last Thursday and Nick Chubb on Sunday, we learned a valuable lesson about projecting fantasy football. Even if the numbers show us that a player has an advantageous matchup, that is often not the case. For both of these running backs, the opposing defenses sold out to limit them and had some success.  Of course Henry still paid the bills by running for and passing for TDs. But as a result, both of their quarterbacks had excellent fantasy performances against those same defenses that didn't respect those passing attacks. So for both Chubb and Henry, they remain elite fantasy options, but be aware of defenses that have the ability to sell out like Green Bay and Buffalo did against these running backs. This advice is most useful in DFS, as they can never be benched in redraft leagues.
• Gabe Davis had his second straight game with double-digit PPR points. On the season, he's reached double digits in five of the nine games he's played. He has three games with at least 17 PPR points.  To this point, he hasn't been the upside player that many had hoped for. He's also been a wildly inconsistent scorer. But in a season in which offense is way down, a lot of receivers have had the same fate. Ultimately, when making lineup decisions including Davis, I often use Josh Allen as a tiebreaker. Not many secondary WRs have Davis' ceiling.
• Brian Robinson has been helpful for the Washington Commanders. But his fantasy usefulness is becoming questionable. He's rushed for fewer than four yards per carry in favorable matchups against the Eagles and Texans the last 2 weeks. He's had fewer than six PPR points in three of his last four games. And he's yet to reach 15 points in any game. And after having an advantage in work over Antonio Gibson earlier in the season, this is pretty much a split backfield now. And with Gibson seeing the receiving work, Robinson gets a lot of the low-value touches. right now, it's difficult to imagine him as more than a TD-dependent flex option.
• Since Week 1, Dameon Pierce has had two disappointing fantasy performances. Both of them came against difficult run defenses. In matchups against Tennessee and Washington, he found very little room to run. Also, the Texans struggled to score points, so red-zone opportunities were limited. The good news is that he only has one difficult remaining matchup going forward. In week 16, he'll have a rematch against the Titans. Otherwise, his schedule remains favorable. So no need to get frustrated about this performance.  He should remain a top-15 running back the rest of the way. 
• Miles Sanders has had two straight games with fewer than six fantasy points. But on the season, he's had double-digit scoring in the majority of his games. The main issue he had is that he faced the difficult run defenses of the Commanders and the Colts. The good news is that his schedule lightens up significantly. In five of the next six games, he has very positive matchups. He still receives at least 15 touches in most matchups. He also runs behind an excellent offensive line. And he definitely may be needed more in the offense as cold winter weather starts to become a factor. He still should be viewed as a top-20 fantasy option at running back. 
• Jonathan Taylor put together back-to-back double-digit fantasy performances for the first time this season the past two weeks. However, it was troubling that he was only able to rush for 3.8 yards per carry against the Eagles. As we mentioned earlier in the article, when defenses sell out to stop a RB in what they perceive to be a limited offense, they can have success. Although Taylor was good enough for fantasy managers in this game, he'll have two very tough matchups over the next four weeks. Obviously, fantasy managers are starting Taylor every week. But at this point, expectations in difficult matchups should definitely be tempered. 
• Chris Olave had his first 100-yard game in four weeks and his first touchdown in five weeks against the Rams. There's no doubt that he already has the looks of a superstar. The biggest issue is that he has inconsistent quarterback play from the Saints. Andy Dalton is difficult to trust, as we never know what we'll get from him from quarter-to-quarter. Regardless, Olave has had an excellent scoring floor. He should be considered a top-30 weekly fantasy option with upside. 
• For the first time this year, Najee Harris strung together a pair of good games. Unfortunately, Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring injury and was ruled out of the game. But if Warren's forced to miss time, Harris will likely go back to having a large role in the offense. And based on his recent performances, the potential volume puts him back in the equation as a top-20 fantasy running back.Of course, we can assume fairly reasonably that we won't be seeing the dominant performances that Harris displayed as a rookie.
• Tee Higgins had not topped 60 yards and three of his last four games. He certainly wasn't able to carry the passing attack after Ja'Marr Chase suffered a hip injury over the last two games. However, he showed up in a big way when the Bengals needed him in a divisional matchup against the Steelers. He consistently won downfield and over the middle of the field, showing the skills that led him to be drafted as a top-15 receiver in fantasy drafts. Based on what we've seen, he will have volatility, but very few receivers have the upside that Higgins possesses. 
• I don't pay close enough attention to know how much merit there is to the narrative that Kirk Cousins doesn't show up during big-stage games. But if that really is a thing, it's certainly reared its head against the Cowboys. Playing at home, the Vikings weren't able to score more than a single field goal while the starters were on the field. On the season, he has exactly two touchdown passes in four games and one or fewer scoring passes in the rest. Despite going into the season with a lot of hype, there's no reason to rank him inside the top-12 quarterbacks the rest of the way.

Injuries

• Joe Mixon sustained a concussion, but the two TDs that Samaje Perine scored were both in the first half when Mixon was available.
• Kyle Pitts sustained a knee injury and didn't return against Chicago. Coach Arthur Smith failed to give an update after the game. 
• Wan'Dale Robinson had posted over 100 yards against the Lions, but was ruled out of the game quickly after injuring his knee in the second half. That would seem to make his status very problematic with an upcoming matchup against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
• Matthew Stafford suffered a head injury in the first half against the Saints.  He wasn't formally diagnosed with a concussion, though that could change as we move forward.
• Jaylen Warren injured his hamstring in the first quarter against the Steelers and didn't return.
• Chase Edmonds was forced from the matchup against the Raiders with an ankle injury and was ruled out at halftime.