NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

It was great to end the final week of the regular season on such a high note. Between the outstanding final record against the spread or the 7-5 record in best bets including multiple positive-odds calls, I really couldn't have envisioned a better Week 18 given the fluky nature of everything.

I talked about it back in Week 17 so I won't rehash some things too much, but it was an honor to do this piece every single week. A couple years ago I half-seriously pitched Chris Liss while subbing on SiriusXM that I should join the RotoWire Staff Picks assembly. I was a far-too-eager kid at the time just trying to show that my NFL wits belonged among a group of knowledgeable figures that I admired, and I think Chris recognizing the very real possibility that I'd be out over my skis politely shut down the notion. "Make your picks every Tuesday and keep track of them for the full season, and then do it some more," was essentially what the rebuttal boiled down to. It felt like at the time a flat dismissal, and one that was fair given my short track record. I had been making picks against the spread with my radio friends at TheScore 1260, Jim Lerch and Paul Esden, as part of my weekly segment on The Manchild Show with Boy Green for years at that point, and had even won the picking pool against an impressive collection of NFL insiders and brilliant gambling minds, but we were making those picks Thursday evening with all the information essentially laid out. To do so Tuesdays, and to be committed to writing out the thought process behind each pick, was another sort of labor entirely.

It was a lot and then some. Because I'm me, I'll likely go back and count just how thorough this project was, but despite the massive endeavor, I absolutely loved documenting it all. As someone that has become much more schedule-oriented thanks to the chaos that's created by shepherding a two-year-old through the perils of being a toddler, this became a weekly grounding point of sorts. And one that I'll miss come February. We'll be carrying this column all the way up to the Super Bowl, but over the next two weeks especially there are enough games on the playoff slate for plenty of meat to still be picked off the bone.

With the help of RotoWire interns Matteo Magcalas, Luke Nemoir, Andrew Olson and Rishi Kothinti, I did document my win/loss record against the spread for every team. That'll be data that should be beneficial for next season, but it's also something I'll bring up in the playoff matchups here too. Obviously so much has changed since the 2023 campaign kicked off back in September, but I find value in just about every data point provided it's utilized in the correct manner.

Super Wild Card Weekend Betting Picks For Each Game

DateGame MatchupSuper Wild Card Picks
Saturday, January 13Browns vs. TexansBrowns -3, under 44
Saturday, January 13Dolphins vs. ChiefsChiefs -4, over 44
Sunday, January 14Steelers vs. BillsBills -10, under 35.5
Sunday, January 14Packers vs. CowboysCowboys -7.5, over 50.5
Sunday, January 14Rams vs. LionsRams +3.5, under 51.5
Monday, January 15Eagles vs. BuccaneersEagles -3, under 44

Predictions for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Record ATS: 11-5
Week 18 Record on Totals: 7-9
Season Record ATS: 139-126-7
Season Record on Totals: 130-137-5

In this article, we also take a look at Super Wild Card Weekend and our predictions for each NFL game. Each team listed last will play at home.

Browns vs. Texans 

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Browns vs. TexansBrowns -3Cleveland -148; Houston +12444

I went 11-6 picking against Cleveland's spreads this season. Since Week 13 when Joe Flacco took over, I was one half-point bad beat away from getting six consecutive correct calls. Nick Chubb was one of my favorite recommendations as a first-round pick this year, and Jerome Ford was one of the most rostered players across all leagues to begin the campaign. All of this to say, I think I know the 2023 Cleveland Browns better than I know most teams currently.

It's ironic that there's going to be such a glaring media focus on a franchise signal caller taking on his former team in a critical playoff matchup, and yet technically it's occurring twice with Deshaun Watson here, although obviously he won't play. It certainly seems to have worked out for the Texans, who clearly have their guy in C.J. Stroud, and at least for this week, it's worked out well specifically for Browns fans who don't have deal with the nauseating Watson's theatrics and still get to see their team succeed under Flacco. There's going to be a number of questions to answer once this magical ride ends, but I don't think there's a single fan in Ohio who cares about that right now.

Ironically, it's because of Flacco that I feel confident the Browns win this one. The Texans are a young team and while some would point to that as a negative, I feel like the collective roster is playing as if they don't understand they're supposed to stink. That kind of self confidence is so vital, but I think it's only countered by a veteran-laden group that has seen every situation such as these Browns, and specifically Flacco. Sure he'll likely have a turnover or two, but a once moribund offense has blossomed under his command and suddenly has too many win conditions to counter.

Spread Pick: Browns -3
Total Pick: Under 44

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Dolphins vs. ChiefsChiefs -4Kansas City -218; Miami +18044

I really struggled with this line. I've thought for years the Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins were incredible at beating up on bad teams, but struggled against actual competition. For at least a second consecutive year that's proven to be true with last Sunday's sad showing against the Bills yet another mark on the losing ledger.

We'll never really know the answer to this question unfortunately, but I wonder what this game would be like if Miami was healthy. Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (knee) both will probably play, but the loss of Bradley Chubb (knee), Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) and Jerome Baker (wrist) is incredibly difficult for a defensive unit that was already perilously top heavy to begin the year.

Even still, the way the Chiefs' offense has sputtered in the past five weeks makes me a bit uneasy they'll be able to generate points consistently against this banged-up unit, and there's reportedly a realistic possibility snow will be in the forecast. Patrick Mahomes is brilliant of course, and the likes of Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have to be due for at least league-average play in a game soon, but the bizarre usage of Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce's apparent slip in play are more than just caution signs to ignore. Mahomes can make magic happen, but in a game where points may be hard to come by, the Dolphins' explosive capabilities are a tremendous equalizer.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -4
Total Pick: Over 44

Steelers vs. Bills 

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Steelers vs. BillsBills -10Buffalo -520; Pittsburgh +39035.5

I'm just assuming T.J. Watt (knee) won't play in this one, but I don't think it really matters. The Bills should win.

That being said, Josh Allen is far too turnover prone and the Steelers play such a boring style offensively that I hate picking against the spread for this. And Buffalo absolutely should win this game, but the odds are way too dramatic for a postseason game with Mike Tomlin coaching. If you told me the final score was 13-10, but only because Mason Rudolph threw a final touchdown with nine seconds left, I'd just frustratingly nod my head. This is going to be a dumb game and a dumb outcome, but I just hope it leans in my favor.

I've had a lot of success betting first-drive outcomes on a few sportsbooks recently, and that's about the only action I want in this. You could also parlay a team's individual scoring, and possibly even tease it depending how open some of these sportsbooks get to attracting new NFL customers, but nothing like that is available at the moment.

Spread Pick: Bills -10
Total Pick: Under 35.5

Packers vs. Cowboys

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Packers vs. CowboysCowboys -7.5Dallas -375; Green Bay +29550.5

Readers of the column know I'm a Packers fan through and through. That's probably why my 5-12 record against the spread for Green Bay was tied for the worst of any team. While I absolutely am superstitious, I don't think I was intentionally picking a certain way to cause a reverse jinx of sorts. This is just a young team that's prone to have maddeningly frustrating 180s week to week.

Realistically, I know the Packers won't win this game. Joe Barry is one of the worst coordinators of the past decade and the Cowboys are averaging 38 points at home. A "good" game defensively for the Packers would likely be holding Dak Prescott and company to 28 points. I do think Jordan Love and his ragtag group of receivers could score in stride, but again realistically, they're bound to make a mistake or two in a series, which might be all it'll take against a ferocious Dallas offense.

For what it's worth, I've mocked Mike McCarthy for years that when the pressure is at its highest, he'll always come up short. Yes, he won a Super Bowl nearly 15 years ago, but you don't blow a 19-7 lead with five minutes to go against the Seahawks, lose as a 15-1 No. 1 seed by three scores to a 9-7 Giants team or fail to cover Colin Kaepernick really, ever and get to coast by on your reputation as a good ball coach. This might be too impossible of a game for even McCarthy to lose, but rest assured, a no-show is coming. It always does.

Spread Pick: Cowboys -7.5
Total Pick: Over 50.5

Rams vs. Lions

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Rams vs. LionsLions -3.5Detroit -180; Los Angeles +15051.5

The Sam LaPorta knee injury is so tough because I understand why head coach Dan Campbell had his guys playing in a matchup that was likely always going to matter zilch for seeding purposes, but it could be the reason they're one-and-done in the postseason.

To be fair, I think the Rams could have beaten the Lions even if LaPorta had been playing, but now Los Angeles can almost singularly focus on Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime Jared Goff drops back. I actually think the Lions are going to try and limit the impact Aaron Donald might have meaning we're going to see a lot of horizontal offensive plays and quick three-step passes. Jahmyr Gibbs should thrive in that scenario, but if Detroit becomes reliant on using David Montgomery to bludgeon carries, they're going to quickly burn up valuable possessions to score.

And make no mistake, this Rams offense is going to put up points. I'm not sure anyone in the NFC has an answer for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but it certainly isn't this Detroit secondary, nor do I think Aidan Hutchinson and the front four do enough to really make things difficult for Matthew Stafford to process his reads. 51.5 points is an awfully high number especially given a missed field goal is a foregone conclusion for Los Angeles, but there will be points in bunches to cap off an excellent Sunday of football.

Spread Pick: Rams +3.5
Total Pick: Under 51.5

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Eagles vs. BuccaneersEagles -3Philadelphia -148; Tampa Bay +12444

Of all the choices to play Monday, this is the dumbest one in my mind and feels like clear favoritism from the NFL to the Eagles. An extra day absolutely matters for Jalen Hurts (finger), DeVonta Smith (ankle) and A.J. Brown (knee) even if all three were likely going to play anyway, and from a storyline perspective, can "two teams that play bad often stop playing bad" really isn't a fun selling point.

I think the Buccaneers are a good enough team that they'll keep this one close against the Eagles. Overall across the Super Wild Card slate I didn't like a whole lot of teaser options, but I'd be a bit surprised if Philadelphia can suddenly turn a month-and-a-half rut around and beat Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White and Mike Evans by multiple scores at home. Hurts and company might be playoff tested, but it sure seems like they aren't handling adversity well right now and I'm not exactly sure how that changes.

That being said, it does seem unfathomable to me the Eagles outright lose. To go from one bad call away from winning the Super Bowl to first-round exit to the NFC South winner is just a sentence that can't be true, right?

Spread Pick: Eagles -3
Total Pick: Under 44

Super Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Super Wild Card Weekend best bets at the best NFL betting sites. Like I had mentioned in the open, we went 7-5 in best bets last week including four different plus-money hits. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans, specifically with a long-term focus in mind, and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 3. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend at BetMGM.

  • Cowboys/Packers SGP -- under 15.5 total first-quarter points, under 32.5 first-half points and Cowboys moneyline (-105)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for Super Wild Card Weekend. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

  • First scoring play between DAL/GB -- Dallas field goal (+375)
  • Perfect Call -- Browns, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, Eagles moneyline parlay (+1499)

WynnBET Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

WynnBet has a strong menu of Super Wild Card Weekend wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

  • Eagles and Browns both cover 2.5-point spread (+243)

DraftKings Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Super Wild Card Weekend Here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

BetRivers Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on Super Wild Card Weekend,

  • Chiefs defeated in Divisional Round (+175)
  • Bills defeated in Conference Round (+245)

PointsBet Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for Super Wild Card Weekend. You can try "PointsBetting" for Super Wild Card Weekend to maximize your return.

  • First team drive DAL/GB at least five-plus rushing yards (-175)
  • First team drive TB/PHI at least five-plus rushing yards (-170)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Bartel
Joe Bartel is RotoWire's Operations Specialist and football contributor among many other things. When not at the office, he's probably playing a variety of Gen 4 console games or rooting on his beloved Green Bay Packers.
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