It was a costly Week 10 in Survivor. The most popular pick, the Panthers, choked at home against the Saints, and the Bills were upset by the Dolphins. The Panthers' loss isn't as surprising (they were fourth on our list) as the Bills, though.
In my pool, 20 were knocked out, 14 on the the Panthers and six on the Bills. Of the original 451 entrants, 42 remain (9.3 percent).
On to Week 11.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 52.5% | 675 | 87.1% | 6.77 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 16.1% | 400 | 80.0% | 3.22 |
| Texans | TITANS | 15.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 3.80 |
| Packers | GIANTS | 5.1% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.24 |
| Cowboys | RAIDERS | 3.6% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.39 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 2.8% | 215 | 68.3% | 0.89 |
| 49ers | CARDINALS | 1.8% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.77 |
| DOLPHINS | Commanders* | 1.0% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.42 |
| FALCONS | Panthers | 0.9% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.33 |
| Chargers | JAGUARS | 0.6% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.27 |
| BILLS | Buccaneers | 0.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.18 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 0.4% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.12 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 0.3% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.11 |
| RAMS | Seahawks | 0.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.04 |
| EAGLES | Lions | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.03 |
Home teams in CAPS
*Commanders-Dolphins at Madrid
This is an interesting week for Survivor. Pot-odds are in play, but with a couple wrinkles.
The Patriots are by far the most popular team. Comparing the Patriots to the Ravens gives a risk factor of 1.7 and a reward factor of 2.0 (those looking for the step-by-step math process, can plug the numbers into this formula, but for the sake of brevity, we just cut to the chase). So, the reward outweighs the risk — easy decision to take the Ravens and fade Patriots. If it hits, more than half of your remaining pool (theoretically) is out.
However, the Ravens are not widely available, with many Survivors having won with them in Week 2.
The Packers and Texans are tied with the next-best odds. The risk for taking the Packers is 2.1 while the reward is 2.4 (2.37 to be exact). So, that's a clear pot-odds play. But like the Ravens, many Survivors already used the Packers (Week 6 for us).
OK, what about the Texans? The Texans carry the same risk as the Packers (2.1), but because they're ownership is 10 percentage points higher than the Packers, the reward for taking them over the Patriots drops to 2.0. Still, it's basically even EV (2.1 vs. 2.0). And in this case it's probably worth it.
First, Houston's odds should improve if C.J. Stroud (concussion) plays, reducing the Texans' risk (assuming Vegas hasn't totally baked that into the mid-week odds already).
Next, the Patriots play in a divisional game Thursday night. On paper, they should destroy the Jets. But divisional TNF games have been a Survivor killer all season.
As detailed in last week's Notable Omission that advised fading the Broncos, Thursday divisional games have resulted in the Seahawks needing a walk-off field goal to beat the Cardinals in Week 4, the severely injured 49ers upsetting the home Rams in Week 5, the Giants spanking the Eagles in Week 6 and the Bengals upsetting the Steelers in Week 7. Last week followed that M.O., with the Broncos barely squeaking out a win against the Raiders.
Maybe the Patriots buck the trend, but fading them for the Texans in hopes of knocking out half your pool is a fair gamble.
Picks are in order of preference. We've used the Ravens and Packers, so it's the Texans.
My Picks
Baltimore Ravens (at Browns)
The Ravens have won three in a row and their season is back on track after starting 1-5. They're also healthy after a deluge of early season injuries, especially on defense where they've held four consecutive opponents to less than 20 points. The Browns are 1-4 with Dillon Gabriel under center, scoring nine offensive touchdowns in that span. The only possible hesitation is the game is at Cleveland where the Browns have three of the last four against the Ravens, but that's not an actionable concern.
Green Bay Packers (at Giants)
It's possible the Giants get a dead-cat bounce after firing coach Brian Daboll, but the QB situation makes them nearly impossible to trust against the Packers. Jameis Winston, who hasn't played since a three-interception game Week 15 last year, is expected to take off his mascot costume and start for the Giants. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost two in a row and desperately need a win with divisional games on tap the next three weeks. A bad Giants defense should be just what the Packers need to get back on track.
Houston Texans (at Titans)
The Texans are coming off a huge comeback win against the Jaguars. They did it without C.J. Stroud, who was out with a concussion. Stroud could play this week, but it might not matter against the Texans, who easily have the worst offense in the league. The Titans have scored eight scrimmage touchdowns this season, averaging 12.2 points. (You have to go back to the 2011 St. Louis Rams (10.9) to find a team that finished the season averaging fewer offensive points.) Making matters worse for Tennessee, the Texans have the league's best defense, allowing 16.7 points and 261.3 yards per game, both fewest in the league. This could, and should, get ugly.
Dallas Cowboys (at Raiders)
The Cowboys are definitely capable of kicking this, but their offense should have no problem going up and down the field on the Raiders. How will the offensively challenged Raiders keep up?
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Bengals)
At home against the Bengals is a good spot for the Steelers. The Bengals have the worst defense in the league (last in points, yards and rushing yards per game), which should help the Pittsburgh offense get back on track. After losing at Cincinnati (in one of those aforementioned Thursday night games), the Steelers should exact revenge against a Bengals squad that hasn't won since.
NOTABLE OMISSION
New England Patriots (vs. Jets)
How can the Patriots lose at home to the Jets? It might defy explanation, but Thursday night divisional games have defied explanation all season. New York has won consecutive games and won't be intimated by their AFC East foe. The Patriots are coming off a big road victory at Tampa Bay and could be in line for a letdown. The Pats have feasted on the dregs of the league this year, and last week's win came against a severely beaten-up Bucs. Like last Thursday, the better team might pull it out, but with more than half of Survivors on the Pats, it's worth betting on the Jets.
