The biggest loser last week was the Rams, but they weren't a popular Survivor team, so the carnage was limited. The Eagles also lost, but again, the damage was small.
In my pool, five were eliminated (four on the Rams, one on the Eagles). Of the original 451 entrants, 34 remain (7.5 percent).
On to Week 14.
Before picking a Survivor team each week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also check out the weekly projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 65.6% | 400 | 80.0% | 13.12 |
| BROWNS | Titans | 16.6% | 190 | 65.5% | 5.71 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 5.2% | 372.5 | 78.8% | 1.10 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 4.5% | 379 | 79.1% | 0.93 |
| Seahawks | FALCONS | 3.6% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 0.82 |
| BILLS | Bengals | 3.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.93 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 2.6% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 1.10 |
| Eagles | CHARGERS | 1.8% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.74 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 1.7% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.65 |
| RAVENS | Steelers | 1.2% | 250 | 71.4% | 0.34 |
| Commanders | VIKINGS | 1.1% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.48 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 0.8% | 257.5 | 72.0% | 0.22 |
| LIONS | Cowboys | 0.2% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.07 |
| Colts | JAGUARS | 0.1% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS.
Week 14 has a few things to consider. The first is that many of the best bets likely are not available to most Survivors. The Seahawks, Rams, Ravens and Broncos have been used by many. That means we must dig a little deeper to find the least uncomfortable pick.
The second thing is it's time to start looking ahead. Normally, we caution against looking at future matchups, but this time of year it makes sense. The Buccaneers, for example, still have the Falcons and Dolphins to play. It might pay to hold off on them this week for future weeks ... like Week 17, when the Bucs play the Dolphins on a slate dominated by seemingly even matchups. We'll get into future considerations more next week.
The third, and most important, is the pot-odds factor. (For details about our pot-odds strategy, start by reading here and here). This week, the Buccaneers are overwhelming favorites at nearly 66 percent owned. A quick glance tells us at similar odds to the Rams, Broncos, Seahawks and Ravens that they are a good pot-odds fade to those lightly owned teams. The problem is those teams have light ownership because they're largely unavailable (see point No. 1 above).
So, that brings us to the Browns. The Browns' Vegas odds are only 65.5 percent as 4-point favorites. Is a 50-point difference in ownership vs. the Buccaneers enough to offset the difference in odds of winning (80 vs. 66 percent)?
In the interest of time and clutter, we'll skip the step-by-step math and report that the risk factor in taking the Browns instead of the Buccaneers is 2.1, while the reward factor is 2.8. So, yes, the pot odds are in the Browns' favor vis-a-vis the Buccaneers. (This assumes, of course, that the noise in the above Yahoo numbers isn't significant. More on this next week.)
In other words, fading the Buccaneers for any of the above mentioned teams, including the Browns, is a strong play.
If you want to survive and advance, sure, take the Bucs. If you want to greatly improve your chances of winning, you're better off taking another team and fading Tampa Bay.
We've used the Ravens (Week 2), Rams (Week 5) and Seahawks (Week 10), so the Browns are the choice.
Considering a team not listed below? Sound off in the comments and we'll hash it out.
Picks in order of preference.
My Picks
Seattle Seahawks (at Falcons)
The Seahawks have to make a long cross-country trip, but they've played well on the road this year. They also usually dominate inferior opponents (see last week vs. Minnesota). Their game two weeks ago at Tennessee was closer than expected only because of a fluky kickoff return TD (even so, they were never truly threatened). Seattle's defense is humming and the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons are next up for potential wrath.
Los Angeles Rams (at Cardinals)
The Rams were upset at Carolina last week and likely will be re-focused and motivated to dismantle a poor Cardinals squad. Since starting the season 2-0, the Cardinals have lost nine of 10. The Rams are much better on both sides of the ball and while they're the road team, Phoenix is less than hour from L.A. by air. Rams fans could outnumber Cardinals fans at the insurance-company stadium.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Steelers)
The Ravens are coming off a tough loss to the Joe Burrow Bengals that snapped a five-game winning streak. The Steelers just got ran over by the Bills to the tune of 249 rushing yards, the most they've given up at home since 1975 (that was by the Bills too, 310 yards — what in the name of Jack Lambert is going on?). Derrick Henry's rushing average is way off last year's mark and is set to finish with about 600 fewer rushing yards last year, but he's still on pace for 1,300 yards and has 10 rushing scores. He should find running room against the Steelers. Lamar Jackson too. The bigger problem for Pittsburgh might be its lack of offense. In his last three games, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 131.3 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Ravens also have extra time to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Titans)
This is a battle of rookie quarterbacks: first overall pick Cam Ward vs. fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders. This isn't a bet on Sanders, but rather on Cleveland's defense, which should get after Ward all day. The Browns have arguably the league's best defense — certainly the best pass rusher in Myles Garrett — while the Titans have inarguably the league's worst offense. With snow in the forecast at Cleveland, the Titans are in a tough spot. It wouldn't be surprising if Garrett wraps up the single-season sack record Sunday — with four games to play.
Denver Broncos (at Raiders)
Winners of nine in a row, the Broncos play to the level of their competition and are perhaps due for a loss. It probably won't come this week as the Raiders' level is so low Denver likely won't need another late-game comeback. The 2-10 Raiders have lost six in a row and haven't topped 20 points in their last eight games. The Raiders might play the Broncos tough again as they did in a 10-7 Thursday night Week 10 loss, but it's doubtful their inept offense can overcome a stout Broncos defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Saints)
The Buccaneers are getting healthier and snapped a three-game losing streak last week. The 2-10 Saints have nothing going for them, though they did win at Carolina a few weeks ago. Another road upset isn't likely, especially considering the Buccaneers blew out the Saints, 23-3, in Week 8. Tampa Bay can ride its defense in this one if the offense sputters. With a win, the Bucs also would go a full game up in the division on the Panthers.
Washington Commanders (at Vikings)
This is a desperation play, but if Jayden Daniels returns, the Commanders suddenly seem much more formidable than the Vikings. Even if J.J. McCarthy returns from his concussion, the Vikings' passing game isn't good. If McCarthy is out again, Max Brosmer ... well, he can't be worse than he was last week at the Seahawks, but he can be bad enough to lose to Washington.
NOTABLE OMISSION
Green Packers (vs. Bears)
The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at home, which seems a bit high. Green Bay has a much better defense, but the Bears have an explosive offense and won't just roll over. Add in the divisional rivalry factor and that the game will determine first place in the NFC North, are we really willing to rest our Survivor pick on the Packers? The same Packers who lost at home to the Panthers? Those who haven't used the Packers (Week 6 for us) will have a Week 18 opportunity in what likely will be a must-win game vs. the Vikings.
