This article is part of our Survivor series.
Survivor was pretty uneventful last week, as it has been the last few weeks. The Commanders almost blew the win against the Saints, but that was about it.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 15.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Saints | 40.80% | 750 | 88.2% | 4.80 |
| FALCONS | Giants | 20.20% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.04 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 15.80% | 825 | 89.2% | 1.71 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 8.00% | 355 | 78.0% | 1.76 |
| Cardinals | PANTHERS | 3.70% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 1.22 |
| Rams | JETS | 3.10% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.14 |
| COLTS | Titans | 2.30% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.84 |
| Lions | BEARS | 1.90% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.51 |
| Buccaneers | COWBOYS | 1.10% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.38 |
| RAVENS | Steelers | 0.80% | 250 | 71.4% | 0.23 |
| Vikings | SEAHAWKS | 0.40% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.16 |
| RAIDERS | Jaguars | 0.40% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| Eagles | COMMANDERS | 0.20% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.07 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 0.20% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| 49ers | DOLPHINS | 0.20% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 0.10% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
The Packers doubled up the Falcons in popularity this week and are 25 percentage points higher than the Bills at slightly worse odds. But whether there is a pot-odds play depends solely on your individual pool. As has been said the last few weeks, check the teams available to your competition and make your best guess about
Survivor was pretty uneventful last week, as it has been the last few weeks. The Commanders almost blew the win against the Saints, but that was about it.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 15.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Saints | 40.80% | 750 | 88.2% | 4.80 |
| FALCONS | Giants | 20.20% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.04 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 15.80% | 825 | 89.2% | 1.71 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 8.00% | 355 | 78.0% | 1.76 |
| Cardinals | PANTHERS | 3.70% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 1.22 |
| Rams | JETS | 3.10% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.14 |
| COLTS | Titans | 2.30% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.84 |
| Lions | BEARS | 1.90% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.51 |
| Buccaneers | COWBOYS | 1.10% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.38 |
| RAVENS | Steelers | 0.80% | 250 | 71.4% | 0.23 |
| Vikings | SEAHAWKS | 0.40% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.16 |
| RAIDERS | Jaguars | 0.40% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| Eagles | COMMANDERS | 0.20% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.07 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 0.20% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| 49ers | DOLPHINS | 0.20% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| CHIEFS | Texans | 0.10% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
The Packers doubled up the Falcons in popularity this week and are 25 percentage points higher than the Bills at slightly worse odds. But whether there is a pot-odds play depends solely on your individual pool. As has been said the last few weeks, check the teams available to your competition and make your best guess about which teams they'll take the rest of the way. That should at least inform your decision.
For questions on teams not listed below, hit up the comments.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Buffalo Bills
The only potential hiccup for the Bills at home is that they perhaps overlook the Patriots after a big win last week at Detroit. But that doesn't seem likely. It's a division game and the Bills are still in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Plus, the Patriots are pretty bad. Buffalo has been widely used, which is why less than 16 percent of the public has it this week.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers should pound the Saints at home on Monday. Spencer Rattler is expected to start at quarterback for New Orleans. He almost rallied the Saints to victory after taking over in the second half last week, despite going 10 of 21 with a 6.4 YPA. Even with a week of practice, it's not likely to go as well on the frozen tundra.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have the backing of only eight percent of Survivors, probably because most already used them. But this is a good spot for Cincinnati. The Browns will turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week after Jameis Winston totaled 10 turnovers in the last four games (nine interceptions). Nick Chubb is out too. The Bengals get a good opportunity to take out some frustrations on a woeful in-state rival at home.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are coming off a tough loss, but at least their attention should be squarely on bouncing back against a bad a Bears team. Most Survivors have long since used the Lions, however. If not, this is a good spot.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams won ugly against the 49ers last Thursday, but the extra rest should have them ready for a Jets team that has lost nine of it last 11. Granted, the Jets won last week, but it was against the Jaguars, who were without Trevor Lawrence.
Atlanta Falcons
I almost made the Falcons the Notable Exception, but after working through it, I guess I unintentionally talked about myself into them. Twenty percent of the public is on the Falcons, but those picks likely were made before the team named rookie Michael Penix the starter. I like Penix as much as the next guy (more, probably), but do you really want to rest your Survivor pick on a rookie, sight unseen? It's risky. Then again, considering how poorly the now-benched Kirk Cousins has played, Penix might be the reason 20 percent took the Falcons. Atlanta plays host to the Giants, who basically don't have a quarterback. Drew Lock has a heel injury and Tommy DeVito has a concussion, leaving Tim Boyle under center. So, whom do you trust more? A gimpy Drew Lock, if he can play, and/or an uninspiring Tim Boyle, or Michael Penix? Well, when it's put like that ... The game is in Atlanta, the Falcons still have playoff hopes and Penix's arrival might bring some life to the Falcons, even though they're playing on a short week.
NOTABLE EXCPETION
None, now that I'm on the Penix train.
