Unlike recent season openers, there wasn't much Survivor carnage last week. Actually, there wasn't any carnage at all. Only three dogs won, though there were plenty of close calls and crazy comebacks. Maybe those who did not survive Week 1 forgot to submit a pick.
In my pool, 14 entrants failed to submit a pick. In all, 33 of the original 418 were eliminated, with 385 surviving (92.1 percent).
It's important to remember, however, Week 1 is a liar.
On to Week 2.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Browns | 28.63% | 675 | 87.1% | 3.69 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 17.81% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 5.13 |
| CARDINALS | Panthers | 13.37% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.61 |
| 49ers | SAINTS | 9.40% | 205 | 67.2% | 3.08 |
| Rams | TITANS | 6.96% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.14 |
| Bills | JETS | 5.15% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 1.31 |
| BENGALS | Jaguars | 3.38% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.24 |
| LIONS | Bears | 3.03% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.87 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 2.91% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.07 |
| STEELERS | Seahawks | 1.42% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.59 |
| PACKERS | Commanders | 1.34% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.49 |
| VIKINGS | Falcons | 0.90% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.30 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 0.75% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.36 |
| Broncos | COLTS | 0.75% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.34 |
| Buccaneers | TEXANS | 0.55% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.24 |
| Eagles | CHIEFS |
Unlike recent season openers, there wasn't much Survivor carnage last week. Actually, there wasn't any carnage at all. Only three dogs won, though there were plenty of close calls and crazy comebacks. Maybe those who did not survive Week 1 forgot to submit a pick.
In my pool, 14 entrants failed to submit a pick. In all, 33 of the original 418 were eliminated, with 385 surviving (92.1 percent).
It's important to remember, however, Week 1 is a liar.
On to Week 2.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Browns | 28.63% | 675 | 87.1% | 3.69 |
| COWBOYS | Giants | 17.81% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 5.13 |
| CARDINALS | Panthers | 13.37% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.61 |
| 49ers | SAINTS | 9.40% | 205 | 67.2% | 3.08 |
| Rams | TITANS | 6.96% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.14 |
| Bills | JETS | 5.15% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 1.31 |
| BENGALS | Jaguars | 3.38% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.24 |
| LIONS | Bears | 3.03% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.87 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 2.91% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.07 |
| STEELERS | Seahawks | 1.42% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.59 |
| PACKERS | Commanders | 1.34% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.49 |
| VIKINGS | Falcons | 0.90% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.30 |
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 0.75% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.36 |
| Broncos | COLTS | 0.75% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.34 |
| Buccaneers | TEXANS | 0.55% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.24 |
| Eagles | CHIEFS | 0.43% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.20 |
Home teams in CAPS.
There is no pot-odds play this week. There are a lot of (seemingly) good picks. Go with your favorite team.
MY PICKS
Baltimore Ravens
Both the Ravens and Browns gave away their games last week. The Ravens, though, looked much better than the Browns and are, of course, much more talented. After choking in the fourth quarter in Week 1, the Ravens likely will come out on fire in their home opener. However, similar logic was used last season after the Ravens dropped a tough opener to Kansas City and faced a bad Raiders team in Week 2. They lost that game. Let's hope history doesn't repeat.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys were left thinking about what might have been if not for a few CeeDee Lamb drops last week. The Giants' offensive line is so bad, especially without Andrew Thomas, that Russell Wilson (or Jaxson Dart, if it comes to that) has no time to look downfield and the running game (at least last week) is non-existent. Cowboys at home look reasonably safe.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills don't have much support this week despite being the second-biggest favorite because many are probably (foolishly, in our view) saving them for future matchups. But on the road at a division rival isn't the best matchup either. Still, unless the team has a collective letdown following last week's miracle finish, the Bills should prevail.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona gets a doormat for the second week in a row. The Cardinals are not great and had to eke out a win last week at the Saints, but they're good enough to do that again, this time at home, against a weak Panthers team.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams held the Texans to nine points last week and now travel to Tennessee to face rookie QB Cam Ward, who had a rough NFL debut. It likely will be rough for him again. The Titans pushed the Broncos last week, but not because of their offense. The Rams likely won't turn the ball over four times like the Broncos did last week against the Titans.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are probably good enough to beat the lowly Saints without Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings, but why test it when there are plenty of good options?
