NFL Waiver Wire: Week 1 Deep Dive

Welcome to the 2024 NFL season and we are only a day away from opening kickoff. For new subscribers/readers to this series, we'll run through a few quick principles of the article before diving into player analysis. This is a complementary article to the traditional waiver wire column aimed at catering to deeper leagues. The exact definition of a deep league is a moving target based on the host site, so we'll list both FFPC and ESPN roster rates. There won't be any overlap between this article and the other waiver article in that a player won't be repeated here.

It's also worth laying out the goal of the waiver wire at this point in the season. Ideally, fantasy managers are churning the bottom of their roster to find the best stashes for later in the campaign and not relying on the wire to plug in immediate starters. In truly deep formats, that may not be realistic and it's possible injuries or surprising role shifts have changed the outlook of rosters. Given that, we'll also highlight some potential immediate contributors.

Quarterback

Geno Smith – 13% ESPN

For those needing immediate help at QB, Smith is a pretty clear option. The Seahawks are expected to get more aggressive through the air with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb modernizing the play calling. Denver offers a decent secondary, but not to the extent where I'd avoid streaming against them.

Sam Darnold – 4% ESPN, 59% FFPC

Darnold is a premium stream thanks to his matchup against the Giants and arguably the worst secondary in the league. He also has an excellent playcaller (Kevin O'Connell) on his side and an elite pass-catching duo in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (ankle).  

Bo Nix – 14% ESPN

Now isn't necessarily the time to roster Nix as there aren't many scenarios where he's startable and still on the wire (superflex or two-QB leagues). The chance of him starting the season so well that he'll be a priority waiver target after Week 1 is also fairly small. I'd keep Nix in mind but would save my FAAB/waiver priority.

Running Back

Samaje Perine – 4% ESPN, 40% FFPC

Once it became clear that Javonte Williams was safe to make the roster in Denver, Perine was the logical candidate to land elsewhere. That turned out to be the case, and Kansas City was an ideal place for him to settle. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the reserve/non-football injury list and will miss at least the first four games to clear a path for Perine to operate as the pass-catching back. Carson Steele is also a name to keep in mind in the KC backfield, though coach Andy Reid recently kept expectations for him in check.

Emanuel Wilson – 1% ESPN, 7% FFPC

The Green Bay backfield became intriguing once AJ Dillon (neck) hit IR to end his season. MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) will be the player to roster in the long-term, but he didn't practice Tuesday after appearing to be trending in the right direction. Wilson may be the only remaining healthy back behind Josh Jacobs for an opening matchup against the Eagles.

Dalvin Cook – 1% ESPN, 20% FFPC

I'd limit interest in Cook to very deep formats. He's signed to the Dallas practice squad and may not be elevated for Week 1 against Cleveland. Even if is active, Cook isn't likely to be heavily involved in the offense right away. That makes him a stash and there should be better options available in most leagues. Don't get fooled by the name value.

Cordarrelle Patterson – 1% ESPN, 8% FFPC

The discussion for Patterson is very similar to that of Cook, with the exception that we know Patterson will be active in Week 1 and will likely have some role in the Pittsburgh offense.

Kimani Vidal – 4% ESPN
Will Shipley – 1% ESPN
Audric Estime – 2% ESPN

This trio of rookie RBs are all widely available in ESPN and hold more upside than any of the options mentioned above. They aren't priority adds for now, yet could become top waiver options with an injury ahead of them on the depth chart.       

Wide Receivers

Andrei Iosivas – 2% ESPN, 45% FFPC

Iosivas could very well be the best add of the week. He was listed ahead of rookie Jermaine Burton on the initial depth chart for the third receiver role. And Ja'Marr Chase's status remains unclear for Week 1 against New England. If he misses any action or is even limited on Sunday, Iosivas could be Joe Burrow's second target.

Jalen McMillan – 3% ESPN

McMillan's rise isn't quite as apparent as Iosivas's, but that's because his situation has been pretty clearcut. He's overtaken Trey Palmer for the third receiver spot and should be on the field a lot from his pro debut and moving forward.  

Wan'Dale Robinson – 7% ESPN
Jalin Hyatt –  7% ESPN, 48% FFPC

Malik Nabers is rightfully grabbing the headlines in New York, though one of Hyatt or Robinson will likely become relevant if we get a functional Giants' offense. Robinson is the steadier target in short-to-medium areas of the field while Hyatt is the deep threat capable of posting a solid fantasy score with one catch.

Van Jefferson – 1% ESPN, 5% FFPC
Roman Wilson – 1% ESPN, 68% FFPC

Like the Giants, the Steelers need someone to emerge opposite George Pickens after a failed attempt to land Brandon Aiyuk durint the offseason. In the short-term, I'd bet on Jefferson. But as the season progresses, I want Wilson. He was slowed by an ankle injury and missed the majority of training camp, so expect him to get eased into his rookie campaign with the chance to emerge as the schedule progresses. 

Olamide Zaccheaus – 0% ESPN, 1% FFPC
Noah Brown – 0% ESPN, 10% FFPC

Targets opened up after the Commanders traded away Jahan Dotson. Both players listed here have similar track records, though Zaccheaus has been with the team longer. For now, he would be my preference.

Josh Reynolds – 2% ESPN, 12% FFPC
Marvin Mims – 10% ESPN

Coach Sean Payton is difficult to predict, so I'd prefer to see a week of the Denver offense and come back to the wire based on conclusive evidence. Courtland Sutton is the only proven wide receiver remaining on the roster, leaving a lot of targets up for grabs. There's a strong chance a valuable option will emerge, but we may need some time to identify who that would be.

Tre Tucker – 8% ESPN, 11% FFPC

Tucker got strong reviews during training camp and is on an upward trajectory dating back to the end of last season. Through the first 10 games of 2023, he earned only 10 targets. In Tucker's final seven contests, he saw 24. That won't be enough to make him fantasy relevant immediately, but he could continue to expand his role as the season progresses.

Jalen Nailor – 0% ESPN, 5% FFPC

Nailor is an option to monitor if Jordan Addison (ankle) is unable to go.

Tight End

Noah Fant – 7% ESPN

Fant is a decent streaming target depending on which other tight ends are available. He's been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective since being a first-round draft pick in 2019, though he showed hints of efficiency last season (9.6 yards per target, 12.9 yards per reception).

Juwan Johnson – 14% ESPN

Johnson could reasonably be the second-most targeted pass catcher in the New Orleans offense with Alvin Kamara the most likely option to challenge him. Taysom Hill could take away snaps, which wouldn't be ideal as most of Johnson's value has come from volume rather than efficiency.

Jonnu Smith – 3% ESPN

There may not be a bigger difference in offenses between New England and Miami. Smith is now on the right side of that difference and the Dolphins lack a proven third pass catcher behind their standout wideouts. Whether Smith has the skill to take advantage is unclear, but the chance certainly appears to be there for the taking.

Zach Ertz – 2% ESPN

Ertz is far from the most exciting name and his fantasy usefulness will almost certainly disappear at some point this season. On the other hand, we covered some of the shortcomings among Washington pass catchers and Ertz can fill some of those holes right away.