This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 4 Picks, Previews and Predictions
Week 3 had some amazing and quite shocking results starting with the upset of the 12.5-point favorite Dallas Cowboys by the lowly Arizona Cardinals. Next, was the Houston Texans taking to the road and dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars. There was carnage in all of the eliminator contests led by these two upsets. Then there was the 70-point offensive explosion by the Miami Dolphins in their 50-point margin of victory over the Denver Broncos.
Home teams went just 9-7 straight-up, 8-7-1 against the spread, and 11-5 Under for 69% winning bets in Week 3 action. Home favorites were solid bets in Week 3 posting a 7-3 SU record and 6-3-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets including a 6-4 Under record.
Games in Week 3 with totals of 46 or fewer points saw the home teams go 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, and 9-3 Under for 75% winning bets. Games that had totals of more than 46 points saw the home teams go 3-1 SUATS and 2-2 Over-Under.
Is it Time to Not Bet on 0-3 Teams in Week 4?
It is widely known that there have been just six teams to start a season 0-3 and still make it into the playoffs since 1990. The San Diego Chargers narrowly avoided that playoff death sentence with a 28-24 win over the Minnesota Vikings, who had two red zone scoring chances on their last two possessions and failed miserably. The Chargers were my preseason value pick to win the AFC Conference and at prices now, they represent a tremendous betting opportunity offered at +1500 at DraftKings.
Since 1989, winless teams (0-3), that are favorites in week 4 action are 16-20 SU and 14-21-1 ATS for just 40% winning bets. That puts the Denver Broncos and Vikings on notice. The Broncos are priced as 3.5-point road favorites at the Chicago Bears and the Vikings are 4.5-point road favorites at the Carolina Panthers. These matchups feature 0-3 teams, and the home team has gone 5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS (31%), and 8-5 Under. The Bears and Panthers are in serious trouble to prevent going 0-4 SU to start the season.
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The Best Bet to Make for NFL Week 4
The New England Patriots, who are 1-2 on the season will take the road to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys, who are fresh off their humiliating loss to the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. The public will expect the Cowboys to have that bad taste in their mouth and take out last week's frustrations on the Patriots, who are 1-2 after a 15-10 win at the New York Jets.
The line opened for this matchup a few months ago with the Cowboys priced as 4.5-point favorites, but has moved higher to a current price as a 6.5-point home favorite. This week has seen the larger bettors going with the Patriots taking the points and accounting for 73% of the money bet on this game and more than 23,000 tickets placed.
The bounce back following a horrid loss is a myth in sports betting circles. The following algorithm underscores that fact and has earned a solid 47-40 SU record and 59-25-3 ATS record good for 70% winning bets spanning the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs that are facing a host that is coming off a road loss in the first half of the season.
Here is a second betting algorithm that highlights teams playing the second of back-to-back road games at the beginning of the season and has produced a 35-14-1 SU record for 71% winning money line bets and 34-13-3 ATS mark good for 72.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road warrior is a dog and from the AFC Conference, their record soars to 17-5-1 SU (77%) and 16-5-2 ATS for 76% winning tickets over the past five seasons.
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A Live In-Game Betting Strategy for the Total
In these games, the first and third quarters were the lowest-scoring ones averaging 9.5 and 9.3 points respectively. The second and fourth quarters were the highest-scoring ones averaging 13.6 and 14.3 respectively. So, if you like the Over in this game, which I do, then consider betting 65% of your normal bet size preflop at 43 points and then look to add 20% more at 40.5 points and the remaining 15% amount at 38.5 points.
My 8-Unit Best bet for Week 4 is on the New England Patriots +6.0 points as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Player Prop Bets for Week 4
These are my Pizza Money 1-Unit Prop Plays for Week 4
Washington RB Brian Robinson Over 52.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM
Buffalo RB James Cook to score a TD +115 at DrfatKings
Patriots WR DeVante Parker Over 38.5 receiving yards -110 at DraftKings