This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It feels like the cream is rising to the top in the NFL. Or at the very least, the "surprising" losses aren't becoming all that surprising. Yes, games like the Cowboys/Cardinals and Jaguars/Texans lead to the quintessential "any given Sunday" type of outcome, but I'm feeling a bit more confident when it comes to when and where upsets could take place.
That being said, the Week 4 slate is gnarly overall. No fewer than 11 games are within 3-3.5 points as of Tuesday's initial breakdown, and that doesn't include a bunch of potential injury updates that could narrow the lines even further.
Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 4 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week.
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks For Each Game
|Date||Game Matchup||Week 3 Picks|
|Thursday, September 28||Lions vs. Packers||Lions -1, under 45|
|Sunday, October 1||Falcons vs. Jaguars||Jaguars -3, over 43|
|Sunday, October 1||Dolphins vs. Bills||Dolphins +2.5, under 53.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Vikings vs. Panthers||Vikings -3.5, over 45.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Broncos vs. Bears||Bears +3, under 46|
|Sunday, October 1||Ravens vs. Browns||Browns -2.5, over 41|
|Sunday, October 1||Steelers vs. Texans||Steelers -3, over 42|
|Sunday, October 1||Rams vs. Colts||Colts -2, under 45.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Buccaneers vs. Saints||Saints -3, under 39.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Commanders vs. Eagles||Commanders +9, under 45.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Bengals vs. Titans||Bengals -2.5, under 42|
|Sunday, October 1||Raiders vs. Chargers||Chargers -5.5, over 47.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Patriots vs. Cowboys||Cowboys -7, over 42.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Cardinals vs. 49ers||49ers -14, over 43.5|
|Sunday, October 1||Chiefs vs. Jets||Chiefs -9.5, over 42.5|
|Sunday, October 2||Seahawks vs. Giants||Giants -1.5, under 46.5|
Predictions for NFL Week 4
In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 4 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.
Week 3 Record ATS: 12-4
Week 3 Record on Totals: 8-8
Season Record ATS: 22-25-1
Season Record on Totals: 24-23-1
Lions vs. Packers
|Lions vs. Packers||Lions -1||Detroit -118; Green Bay -102||45|
The crowd is going to be electric for Jordan Love's primetime debut, but I don't know how much that matters if the Packers can't get back the likes of running back Aaron Jones (hamstring) and wide receiver Christian Watson (hamstring). The availability -- or lack thereof -- of left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) and Jaire Alexander (back) also loom large, although I'd argue neither are as important as the aforementioned dynamic offensive weapons.
I think the Packers will be capable of passing against the Lions' shoddy secondary and Detroit also has it's fair share of injury woes along the offensive line, but I'm not convinced the Packers will be able to get Jared Goff and company off the field enough for it to matter much.
Spread Pick: Lions -1
Total Pick: Under 45.5
Falcons vs. Jaguars
|Falcons vs. Jaguars||Jaguars -3||Jacksonville -148; Atlanta +124||43|
This is your first of a handful of London matchups this season. It's technically a neutral matchup, but it's essentially Jacksonville's home away from home. Both teams are coming off rather embarrassing losses, but in the case of the Jaguars, the offense just hasn't gotten in sync yet. I entered this season assuming Trevor Lawrence and company was an easy lock for a top-10 offense, but through three weeks that appears to be a misguided call.
I don't think the Jaguars really get back on track against a Falcons defense that has dramatically improved thanks to a number of offseason additions. That being said, it's hard to imagine head coach Arthur Smith really winning many games with his lackluster playcalling. I think the Falcons can sit on the ball enough and make this one ugly, but I lean towards the team that has made the cross-continental trip on more than one occasion.
Spread Pick: Jaguars -3
Total Pick: Over 43
Dolphins vs. Bills
|Dolphins vs. Bills||Buffalo -2.5||Buffalo -135; Miami +114||53.5|
I took the under last week between the Dolphins and Broncos. It's going to be an all-time bad call, but how was I to know that head coach Sean Payton had already lost his team in three weeks? The Broncos might be a horrendous organization, but I definitely don't think Buffalo is.
The Bills bounced back from the Week 1 momentum loss to the Jets and have fittingly annihilated two lesser teams in the Raiders and Commanders. There's no such disparity in talent and coaching this go-around, however. I can't help but think back to when Skylar Thompson nearly won the Dolphins a playoff game at Buffalo eight months ago, in large part due to the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the coaching of head coach Mike McDaniels.
I'd like to know if Waddle is able to play after missing last week with a concussion, but either way the Dolphins are just on a different level right now.
Spread Pick: Dolphins +2.5
Total Pick: Under 53.5
Vikings vs. Panthers
|Vikings vs. Panthers||Vikings -3.5||Minnesota -185; Carolina +154||45.5|
No one is going to watch this game, and for good reason. I anticipate Bryce Young (ankle) won't play in Week 4, even though there are reports he could be available. It's just a confidence thing at this point, and even though the Minnesota's defense has been Swiss cheese, you just can't risk further deteriorating Young's mental fortitude in a season that's already lost. It's to the point that I think the Panthers have a better chance of winning right now if Andy Dalton is under center.
Provided Kirk Cousins is still on the roster come Sunday, the Vikings' offense alone is good enough to win this game pretty handily. As a Packers fan, it would delight me to no end to dance on Minnesota's grave, but I don't think they are as bad as their record reflects. They have predictably struggled in one-score games after being a historic outlier in that area last year.
Spread Pick: Vikings -3.5
Total Pick: Over 45.5
Broncos vs. Bears
|Broncos vs. Bears||Broncos -3||Denver -162; Chicago +136||46|
Let's make a deal. I'll write as many words as cares given between the Bears and Broncos last week. Oops, I've already said too much.
Love yourself more than getting action on this game.
Spread Pick: Bears +3
Total Pick: Under 46
Ravens vs. Browns
|Ravens vs. Browns||Browns -2.5||Cleveland -148; Baltimore +124||41|
I'm surprised after last week's shocking loss that the Ravens are getting the benefit of the doubt from the oddsmakers. Depending on the status of Gus Edwards (concussion) and Justice Hill (foot), Baltimore could be down to it's No. 4 and 5 running backs in Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake, and that doesn't include all the injuries to the starting offensive line and secondary.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's offense looked like it didn't miss a beat with Jerome Ford stepping in for the injured Nick Chubb (knee). Perhaps more importantly, Deshaun Watson put together one of his better games in a Browns uniform. This game will be played in Cleveland, and I feel pretty confident the Dawg Pound will help the Browns climb in the ultra-competitive AFC North division.
Spread Pick: Browns -2.5
Total Pick: Over 41
Steelers vs. Texans
|Steelers vs. Texans||Steelers -3||Pittsburgh -162; Houston +136||42|
It appears as if the Texans are the Seahawks of last year -- a team that looked miserable on paper but just seems to mesh with its quarterback and hang around long enough to win.
That being said, shouldn't T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith take advantage of an offensive line that missed four of its top five projected starters each of the past two weeks? I feel like that alone should be enough for the Steelers to pick up the win, but then again, Kenny Pickett is a master at allowing inferior teams to stay in the game.
Spread Pick: Steelers -3
Total Pick: Over 42
Rams vs. Colts
|Rams vs. Colts||Colts -2||Indianapolis -125; Los Angeles +100||45.5|
The Rams' offensive line wasn't very good to start the season and lost left tackle Alaric Jackson (thigh) in Monday's loss to the Bengals. It's comical to type out, but Jackson might be as critical to the Rams as Anthony Richardson (concussion) is to the Colts, especially after watching Gardner Minshew more than handle his own last week against the Ravens.
There has to be a place to find this kind of information, but I do wonder if the Rams will travel back to Los Angeles or hang around the Midwest for the Week 4 matchup in Indianapolis. If the Rams do fly home, that's an awful lot of travel, especially on a short week. Given how close the margin is between the two squads, that could be the difference.
Spread Pick: Colts -2
Total Pick: Under 45.5
Buccaneers vs. Saints
|Buccaneers vs. Saints||Saints -3||New Orleans -162; Tampa Bay +136||39.5|
I've been the patron saint -- pun somewhat intended -- of the "Derek Carr actually isn't that bad" crowd, but I don't think the drop-off to Jameis Winston is that significant. The Saints have an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver with Chris Olave blossoming into a top-10 target before our eyes.
The Buccaneers sure look like they will be a scrappy team each and every week, but cornerback Marshon Lattimore has typically been a Mike Evans stopper throughout his career. I'm not sure there's going to be a whole lot of offense and I'd love to buy a half point to escape the push, but I'm leaning towards the Saints in New Orleans.
Spread Pick: Saints -3
Total Pick: Under 39.5
Commanders vs. Eagles
|Commanders vs. Eagles||Eagles -9||Philadelphia -410; Washington +320||45.5|
This feels like a massive overreaction to Week 3. Yes, the Eagles are awesome, and they will probably be looking to exact some measure of revenge after surprisingly losing to the Commanders last season. Still, it's not like Washington is as bad as the Jets, who are 9.5-point home dogs against the Chiefs.
Sam Howell looked miserable against the Bills last week, and he will probably look bad against the Eagles' fantastic defense in Week 4 too, but this is way too many points for an NFC East divisional matchup that has proven to be anything but chalk in recent years.
Spread Pick: Commanders +9
Total Pick: Under 45.5
Bengals vs. Titans
|Bengals vs. Titans||Bengals -2.5||Cincinnati -130; Tennessee +110||42.5|
I was really curious how the market would react to Joe Burrow playing Monday. Given the Bengals left open the possibility that the star quarterback wouldn't play almost up until kickoff, we never really got a chance to see how much the line would truly move.
Based off Tuesday's mark, I feel like Vegas is discounting a Bengals offense that has been pretty slow out of the gates to begin the season. It was great to see head coach Zac Taylor finally get Ja'Marr Chase moving around more before the snap, and it's not as if Tennessee's secondary is going to pose much of a threat.
I think the more interesting aspect of this game is the under. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans have been miserable offensively, and Derrick Henry hasn't seemed right to begin the year. I don't really see how we can assume they will suddenly get on track in Week 4.
Spread Pick: Bengals -2.5
Total Pick: Under 42.5
Raiders vs. Chargers
|Raiders vs. Chargers||Chargers -6||Los Angeles -250; Las Vegas +205||47.5|
Divisional games always get wonky -- especially in the AFC West -- but the Raiders just aren't on the Chargers' level offensively. Jimmy Garoppolo being in concussion protocol might not matter as much as you'd think -- especially if you believe in preseason darling Aidan O'Connell -- but I'm not convinced the latter is anything more than a backup.
The Chargers attempted to prepare for their yearly devastating injury by drafting Quentin Johnston in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The rookie is going to need to grow up in a hurry, especially after it was confirmed that Mike Williams suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's win over the Vikings. That loss is going to hurt, but the Chargers are probably one of the few teams in the NFL that have the necessary depth to withstand an injury like that. Let's just hope that's the only wide receiver injury Los Angeles has to deal with this season.
Spread Pick: Chargers -6
Total Pick: Over 47.5
Patriots vs. Cowboys
|Patriots vs. Cowboys||Cowboys -7||Dallas -285; New England +230||43.5|
This just feels like a classic bounceback game. I was incredibly confident the Patriots would beat the Jets last week, but somehow New England let Zach Wilson of all people hang around. Maybe this is the week Rhamondre Stevenson finally gets going, or it could even be an Ezekiel Elliott revenge game, but either way the New England offense moving the ball brings the over even more in play.
Head coach Mike McCarthy will lay a stinker or two each season, especially against bizarrely inferior teams, but rarely does he let it happen in consecutive weeks.
Spread Pick: Cowboys -7
Total Pick: Over 43.5
Cardinals vs. 49ers
|Cardinals vs. 49ers||49ers -14||San Francisco -950; Arizona +625||43.5|
The Cardinals are one of just a handful of teams to have a perfect record against the spread this season. Obviously it's because they've been given a touchdown or more in all three games, but there's something to be said about their resilience. I didn't think too highly of head coach Jonathan Gannon to begin the season, but he's way more competent than I gave him credit for.
That being said, the Cardinals got their signature win last week. The Niners are coming off a mini-bye, should get back Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) and have looked dominant against lesser teams in past weeks. It's a massive spread, but I do think San Fran covers this one. Buying a half point might be the call, though, just to avoid the push.
Spread Pick: 49ers -14
Total Pick: Over 43.5
Chiefs vs. Jets
|Chiefs vs. Jets||Chiefs -9.5||Kansas City -500; New York +380||42.5|
It's only Week 4, but the networks have to be allowed to flex games at this point, right? We're going to have two consecutive weeks of more footage of Taylor Swift in the suites than action on the field.
At this point, primetime games are an exercise in masochism for NFL fans. I'm almost positive eight late-evening games featuring Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson in four weeks is the 10th circle omitted from Dante's Inferno.
Spread Pick: Chiefs -9.5
Total Pick: Over 42.5
Seahawks vs. Giants
|Seahawks vs. Giants||Giants -1.5||New York -122; Seattle +102||46.5|
THREE PRIMETIME GAMES WITH DANIEL JONES IN FOUR WEEKS!?! I understand that the New York market is very important, but I wish the NFL cared more about actually showcasing entertaining football. The flip side could be true -- this might be the NFL's way of looking out for the significant others who have lost their partners during the NFL season.
While there are a couple other games that aren't worth wasting time analyzing, I think this one should at least have some offense. The Giants' secondary is painfully young and has looked overmatched in just about every game. Kenneth Walker and the Seahawks' ground game finally got going in Week 3, but I wonder if this might be more of a Geno Smith matchup. This game is far more important to the Giants, who sit perilously at 1-2 in one of the toughest divisions in football.
Spread Pick: Giants -1.5
Total Pick: Under 46.5
NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 4 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 8-6 in best bets last week, but the Cowboys and Titans absolutely killed us in what looked like easy-money locks. We'll try to rectify that this week. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the "best bets" section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.
BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 4
BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 4. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 3 at BetMGM.
- Colts -1 (-110)
- Steelers/Texans over 41.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 4
Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 4. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.
- Bengals to score most touchdowns including three-way option (+110)
- Seahawks/Giants under 47 (-110)
WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 4
WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 4 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.
- Vikings/Panthers over 45 total points (-110)
- Chargers moneyline (-250)
DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 4
DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 4 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
- Colts/Rams under 45.5 (-110)
- Highest-scoring game - Chargers/Raiders (+650)
FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 4
One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.
BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 4
BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 4.
- Jared Goff over 1.5 passing TDs (-129)
- Bengals moneyline (-130)
PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 4
For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 4 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 4 to maximize your return.
- Steelers -3 (-110)
- Chargers/Raiders over 47.5 (-110)
Look ahead at the NFL Week 5 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.