Allen Robinson hasn't been a consistent producer during his career. He's had three seasons of high-end production with four seasons of underwhelming numbers. For the first time in his career, he'll have a good quarterback throwing him the ball. Can he bounce back with a strong season?
Upside
During 2019 and 2020 while playing with Mitchell Trubisky, Robinson averaged 100 catches, 1,200 yards, 6.5 touchdowns and 153 targets. With Robinson being masterful at securing contested catches at all levels of the field, he'll be a natural fit with Matthew Stafford, who not only has a strong arm but has never shied away from letting his receivers make plays. Sharing targets with Cooper Kupp, it's unlikely Robinson will get 150 targets. However, even if he gets 125 targets, he could have another 1,200-yard season while flirting with double-digit touchdowns, putting him in WR1 territory.
Downside
It's easy to explain away Robinson's terrible 2021 season because he endured bad quarterback play in Chicago, where he was reportedly unhappy playing on the franchise tag. He had career lows with 5.5 targets per game and 6.2 yards per target, and there was little chance for him to be productive in that scenario. Although a 28-year old receiver often has productive years ahead of him, fantasy managers have to wonder if he started to enter a decline phase. And the bottom line is that last year happened, so there is clearly downside potential. Even if that's the case, going to the Rams offense
Allen Robinson hasn't been a consistent producer during his career. He's had three seasons of high-end production with four seasons of underwhelming numbers. For the first time in his career, he'll have a good quarterback throwing him the ball. Can he bounce back with a strong season?
Upside
During 2019 and 2020 while playing with Mitchell Trubisky, Robinson averaged 100 catches, 1,200 yards, 6.5 touchdowns and 153 targets. With Robinson being masterful at securing contested catches at all levels of the field, he'll be a natural fit with Matthew Stafford, who not only has a strong arm but has never shied away from letting his receivers make plays. Sharing targets with Cooper Kupp, it's unlikely Robinson will get 150 targets. However, even if he gets 125 targets, he could have another 1,200-yard season while flirting with double-digit touchdowns, putting him in WR1 territory.
Downside
It's easy to explain away Robinson's terrible 2021 season because he endured bad quarterback play in Chicago, where he was reportedly unhappy playing on the franchise tag. He had career lows with 5.5 targets per game and 6.2 yards per target, and there was little chance for him to be productive in that scenario. Although a 28-year old receiver often has productive years ahead of him, fantasy managers have to wonder if he started to enter a decline phase. And the bottom line is that last year happened, so there is clearly downside potential. Even if that's the case, going to the Rams offense should provide him excellent opportunities to bounce back. If he's in decline, he could end the season in the range of 800 yards and five touchdowns.
The Verdict
I'm in the camp that Robinson was in a toxic situation with the Bears last year. He's also at an age in which he should still have prime production. It's hard to imagine Sean McVay not getting the best out of his new receiver. With an ADP of WR22, I don't see many scenarios where he ends the season outside the top-15 WRs, making him an excellent value.
