Run 'N' Shoot: Big Blow for Big Ben

Week 3 saw several, huge fantasy performances, but any recap has to begin in Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger's serious knee injury changes the fantasy landscape and the balance of power in the AFC. I'd reduce expectations for the Steelers stars (Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown) about 20 percent as long as Mike Vick is under center (four to six weeks as of this writing), and the Bengals now look like the clear favorite in the AFC North.

• With three games in the books, it's starting to become clear which defenses we can exploit for fantasy and DFS purposes. My favorites: Bears, Saints (allowing 9.9 YPA, 119 QB rating -- truly insane stuff), Raiders, Eagles (Brandon Marshall's 10-109-1 line was one of the most predictable aspects of Week 3), Jaguars.

• When Gary Barnidge goes 6-105-1 on 10 targets (on the heels of Oakland giving up a two-TD game to TE each of the first two weeks), streaming tight ends against the Raiders is the right answer until further notice.

• It's not all bad for Oakland, though. Young, emerging players on offense -- David Carr, Latavius Murray and Amari Cooper are all exceeding expectations (well, my expectations, anyway) -- are making the Raiders relevant for the first time in a long time. Combined with their typically bad defense, they might actually be a fun fantasy team in 2015.

• Apparently the demise of Larry Fitzgerald was greatly exaggerated. Ditto Steve Smith Sr. I still say both are sell-highs, especially Smith, who started fast last year, too, only to fade badly down the stretch. Fitzgerald has more staying power so long as Carson Palmer stays healthy.

• This is the Keenan Allen we saw in 2013. Don't sell high; hold.

•Colin Kaepernick, four INTs on 19 pass attempts. Woof. The post-game quotes from Tyrann Mathieu were interesting, as he basically said the Niners passing offense has been dumbed down so much the Cardinals knew what routes they were running. Yikes. Week 4's matchup against the Packers will tell us a lot; can Kaepernick post stats in garbage time against a mediocre defense?

• It's official. Adrian Peterson is back.

• What's wrong with Andrew Luck? Many have noted the Colts atrocious pass-blocking, and I don't disagree. But the lack of a receiving options out of the backfield is hurting Luck, too -- both in real life and fantasy. Remember, last year Ahmad Bradshaw had six receiving TDs; Luck is getting nothing like that this year.

•Tyrod Taylor had his second flawless performance in three weeks -- 9.6 YPA, three TDs, no INTs, no sacks against Miami. Especially with Ben and Brees down, Taylor looks like a sure-fire QB1 in fantasy.

•LeSean McCoy's hamstring clearly isn't right, and Karlos Williams looks like a star in the making. With the real possibility that McCoy takes a week off, Williams (12-110-1 on Sunday) needs to be owned in all formats.

• Eventually, an NFL defense is going to force the Falcons to throw to someone besides Julio Jones (20 more targets on Sunday), right? Right? Presuming that happens eventually, expect Leonard Hankerson to benefit, not Roddy White (one target, zero catches the last two weeks). It's past time to cut White for Hankerson in fantasy.

•Andre Johnson has 7-51-0 on the season. After one target and no receptions on Sunday despite Andrew Luck throwing 30 times, I'd say it's safe to cut him in standard leagues.

• I was surprised to see Yahoo's Scott Pianowski, who I've long considered one of the best in the fantasy industry, cut Kendall Wright in the Stopa Law Firm League last week and even more surprised to have just one other owner bid against me in FAAB. I consider Wright the top receiving option on an improving offense -- a good recipe for him to be a top-20 fantasy WR. I'd rather own Wright than Martavis Bryant.

• Apparently Thomas Rawls (16-104-0, including an average of 3.56 yards after contact -- the second-highest total for any RB all year) is the handcuff for Marshawn Lynch, not Fred Jackson. With Lynch's hamstring iffy at best, Rawls is a top waiver target this week. Go get him.

• We knew Jimmy Clausen going into Seattle would crush Matt Forte's fantasy prospects for Week 3, but how does Forte not catch a single checkdown? Forte has to be considered a significant downgrade regardless of opponent so long as Jay Cutler is sidelined.

•Ted Ginn had 4-93-0 on six targets and just missed a long TD. That's 22 targets in 3 weeks, probably the highest number of targets of anyone on waivers in your league. Keep him in mind in deeper formats.

• Don't be misled by the Patriots box score. Dion Lewis is still the back to own; LeGarrette Blount's stats will be entirely game-flow dependent (i.e. when New England is running clock or facing a bad run defense).

• Let's take an early look at some Week 4 values on DraftKings:

Quarterback

Andrew Luck vs. Jaguars, $7,800: Luck's big game should come this week, on the home turf, against a Jacksonville defense that can't stop anyone.

Russell Wilson vs. Lions, $7,100: Detroit is far better against the run than the pass. I like Wilson's chances of posting a three-TD game.

Tyrod Taylor vs. Giants, $5,800: How many good games in a row does Taylor have to post for his price to increase? I'll have Taylor in several Millionaire Maker lineups again this week.

Derek Carr vs. Bears, $5,300: See Tyrod Taylor.

Running Back

Eddie Lacy vs. 49ers, $6,900: Lacy's health has him several hundred dollars less than he'd usually be. Let's see how he looks Monday night and during the week. If he's good, this is a great price against a bad Niners defense.

Latavius Murray at Bears, $6,300: Breakaway, young back on emerging offense plus putrid Bears defense = fantasy value. Murray will be a fixture in my Week 4 Millionaire Maker lineups.

Joseph Randle at Saints, $5,500: I hate chasing last week's points, but Dallas clearly wants to be run-oriented, and the Saints defense is terrible.

Melvin Gordon vs. Browns, $4,900: The Browns run defense is awful, allowing an NFL-high 158 yards/game. This will be Gordon's breakout game.

Karlos Williams vs. Giants, $3,400:LeSean McCoy's hamstring isn't right. If he sits, this is going to be a ridiculous bargain. Even if he plays, Williams has scored a TD in each game so far; why not again?

Wide Receiver

Randall Cobb vs. 49ers, $7,400: This price was locked before Cobb plays the Chiefs, where I expect him to go off. Plus, the Niners give up more than 10.0 YPA through three games. Cobb deserved an $8K price tag in this spot.

Amari Cooper vs. Bears, $6,300: Same rationale as Latavius Murray; one of the two will go off this week.

Donte Moncrief vs. Jaguars, $5,000:T.Y. Hilton is $6,700 (a price I actually like), and Moncrief may be a better player than Hilton. I expect a big game from Luck on the home turf against a bad Jaguars defense.

Leonard Hankerson vs. Texans, $3,700: This price will look absurd if Houston forces the ball away from Julio Jones.

Ted Ginn at Bucs, $3,400: Ginn is going to score from deep eventually; he's getting targeted a lot for someone with this price. The Bucs leaky secondary is as good a spot as any. Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are good values, too.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett vs. Raiders, $4,500: Oakland gives it away to opposing tight ends. See Gary Barnidge. Even with Jimmy Clausen under center, I like Bennett in this spot.

Charles Clay vs. Giants, $3,300: Clay is posting stats every week. He and Taylor make a cheap GPP stack.

Coby Fleener vs. Jaguars, $3,200: Fleener didn't find the end zone in Week 3, but because Indy wasn't facing a good pass rush, he didn't have to pass-block and was able to get involved in the passing game. So long as Dwayne Allen is out again, I like Fleener in this spot, particularly in GPP, where nobody will play him.