Run 'N' Shoot: Football is Back!

Finally! The NFL season has arrived -- and with it comes the return of my "Run 'N' Shoot." Let's get right into it, with some random thoughts filling my head as we approach Week 1.

• The Steelers have the NFL's best receiving back (Le'Veon Bell), arguably its best receiver (Antonio Brown), two young, rising wideouts (Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant), and an atrocious defense. So why can't Ben Roethlisberger finish as a top-2 fantasy QB? Andrew Luck will be No. 1 in fantasy and is my pick for NFL MVP, but I see Ben challenging Aaron Rodgers for that second spot in fantasy. Pittsburgh will be a fun team and a ridiculous fantasy carnival all year long -- think 34-30 almost every week.

• While we're talking under-valued fantasy QBs, it's time to eliminate your preconceived notions about Colin Kaepernick and take a second look. This is a totally different Niners team than years past. The defense is awful, pushing the team's Over/Under win total in Vegas all the way down to 6.5. As a result, Kaepernick's volume is going to be far higher than ever, and between Torrey Smith (age 26, coming off an 11-TD season), Vernon Davis (a 13-TD season in 2013), the ageless Anquan Boldin and improvements in the backfield, I like Kaepernick's chances of finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB. If that sounds nuts, it was just two years ago at this time Kaepernick was ranked similarly to Peyton Manning.

• Did I really just say the Niners backfield is "improved" without Frank Gore? Yes, yes I did. And Indy's is worse with him. Someone besides Gore will lead Indy RBs in fantasy points in 2015.

• You know the coolest thing about this time of year? Everyone can dare to dream. Even Bills fans. Who cares that we haven't made the playoffs this century? Maybe Tyrod Taylor is the B-level QB we need to turn a ridiculously talented roster into a Super Bowl contender. Yeah, yeah, I'm a homer. Insert your jokes in the comments, go ahead. But with rushing upside pushing 600 yards and 6-7 TDs, Taylor can easily be a QB1 in fantasy. I don't like stashing QBs on the bench in one-QB leagues -- generally, you can always find players on waivers in that format -- but Taylor is an exception. Go get him and see what happens in Buffalo.

• That's three QBs I like -- here are two I'm down on ... Peyton Manning (I have a weird feeling Brock Osweiler starts games this year) and Sam Bradford (too hyped after meaningless preseason).

• Everyone is so down on LeSean McCoy, and I understand why (hamstring injury, wasn't great last year). But Alfred Morris' rushing stats with Robert Griffin under center compared to other QBs (nearly a full YPC difference) is proof that rushing QBs like Taylor will give McCoy more rushing lanes with which to work than if Matt Cassel had won the job. I'm not necessarily targeting McCoy, but I'm not pushing him down my rankings like so many others in the industry have done lately.

• I've read plenty of concerns about who is going to catch passes in Carolina after Kelvin Benjamin went down, but they have Greg Olsen, a solid defense and Cam Newton can run. What about Baltimore? Steve Smith Sr. looked old most of last year, Kamar Aiken is 26 and while that's not old, it's too old for him to be breaking out now, and the other options (Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, Crockett Gillmore) are young and raw. It's hard for me to invent a scenario where Joe Flacco is any good in 2015.

• My top fantasy wideout for 2015? Julio Jones.

• If the Steelers are a 2015 fantasy carnival, the Browns are fantasy purgatory. No QB, no targets in the passing game, a three-headed RB committee and a good defense, limiting the volume of everyone ... ugh. I'm on record as saying we can't ignore an NFL team for fantasy purposes (and I do remember the 2014 Browns were decent at run-blocking before Alex Mack got hurt), but unless one of the Browns' RBs emerges, 2015 might not produce a relevant fantasy player from Cleveland all year.

• I'm starting to believe the Cowboys' 2015 rushing leader isn't on the roster. I stashed Ahmad Bradshaw in a ridiculously deep league the other day -- maybe someone like that gets the call here.

•Eric Decker over Brandon Marshall every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Big receivers like Marshall don't age well -- we started to see it last year. Decker, meanwhile, should be a sneaky-solid fantasy WR2 all year -- not a stud, but one of those guys you plug into your lineup and never take out.

• The industry routinely drafts Jimmy Graham before Travis Kelce. Why? With Graham going into an entirely different system in Seattle, how confident can we be in Graham's volume? Or usage? I'd take Kelce over Graham straight up, so Kelce's lower acquisition cost makes this comparison a no-brainer.

•Danny Woodhead is the worst kind of fantasy leech -- he's not good enough to have value in his own right (except perhaps in deeper, PPR formats), but he'll hurt Melvin Gordon week after week.

•Jameis Winston looked bad this preseason, but so what? He's unlikely to get benched, and even if he's bad, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are good enough that they'll rescue him. I still say it's 50/50 he and Marcus Mariota become fantasy viable this year. Get ready to pounce if the early returns are positive.

• I don't understand the fantasy industry's love-affair with Lamar Miller. The coaching staff didn't give him 20 carries in a single game last season. It's going to be hard for him to justify his ADP with such scattered usage. Worse yet, there's a real fear the coaches find someone they actually like. What happens then?

• There's a non-zero chance the Redskins QB who starts the most games in 2015 is Colt McCoy.

• I have no feel for Steve Johnson in San Diego. Johnson going to his third team in three seasons is certainly a red flag, but he's just 29, was a perennial 1,000-yard receiver and with Philip Rivers as his QB, is headed into the best situation of his career. The possibilities for Johnson in 2015 run the gamut -- from being his team's best receiver (real life and fantasy) to borderline worthless.

• Every year, the turnover among NFL playoff teams is about half, meaning six of the 2014 playoff teams will miss out in 2015. So who's missing the dance this year, and who will take their place? In the AFC, I'll say Denver, Baltimore and Cincy can't repeat, with Buffalo, Kansas City and San Diego taking their place. In the NFC, look for Detroit, Carolina and Arizona to miss out, with the Eagles, Vikings and Saints replacing them.

Super Bowl: Packers over Bills.
MVP: Andrew Luck
Rookie of the Year: Todd Gurley
Coach of the Year: Rex Ryan

• I'll be back each week to chat all things NFL. Enjoy Week 1, friends.