Run 'N' Shoot: Injury Sunday

Any recap of Injury Sunday, a.k.a. Week 8 of the NFL season, has to start with Pittsburgh, where Le'Veon Bell's torn MCL is obviously a devastating blow to the Steelers and his fantasy owners. With Bell expected to miss the rest of the season, DeAngelo Williams immediately becomes a low-end RB1 in fantasy. Remember, this is a guy who dominated the Steelers' backfield touches while Bell was suspended in Weeks 1-2, going 21-127-0 and 20-77-3, respectively. All of your remaining FAAB should be spent here.

The other big change in Pittsburgh is the surprising play of its defense. Thought by many to be a sieve that would turn many Steelers games into shootouts, Pittsburgh's defense actually looks like an above-average unit, as it's among the league leaders in points against. That unexpected improvement on D, coupled with Bell's injury and a Week 11 bye, lowers the fantasy ceiling of all Steelers offensive players just a bit. I'm not giving any of them away by any means, but I'm no longer expecting Pittsburgh games to all be played in the 30s, either.

• I was never a Panthers or Ravens fan, but it was impossible not to be a fan of Steve Smith. If Sunday was his last NFL game, and it probably was (it's hard for anyone to come back from a torn Achilles' tendon, and Smith is 36), I'll remember him as the toughest NFL player, pound for pound, I ever saw -- a guy who consistently found ways to produce even when nobody thought he could. I don't have a vote, but Smith belongs in the Hall of Fame. It's a shame we have to wait several years for his HOF speech -- it's going to be epic.

• If you play tournaments in DFS, Giants-Saints was either thrilling or maddening, as you either stacked players from that game, and went directly to the bank, or did not, and realized by about 2:30 EST on Sunday that you had no chance of winning. In our seasonal leagues, I'm not sure this game moved the fantasy needles of many players, though. ODB appeared healthy, and that makes all the difference for Eli Manning. For New Orleans, the biggest news was the season-ending injury for Khiry Robinson. What was a three-headed monster at RB will now have Mark Ingram getting an even larger share of the pie, and C.J. Spiller belongs on fantasy rosters, too.

• Realizing I'd rather own Mark Ingram than Adrian Peterson ROS (AP isn't catching passes like Ingram is) probably means I should give a top-10 list. Here goes: Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Ivory, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, DeAngelo Williams, LeSean McCoy.

• Which is the best unit in the NFL, the Patriots offense or the Broncos defense? After that smackdown of Aaron Rodgers, I might have to pick the latter. A 5.8 YPA, 5:9 TD:INT, league-leading 29 sacks, 69.6 QB rating -- any way you spin the stats, this defense is flat-out awesome.

• That's now seven TDs for Tavon Austin. Despite his diminutive size, the scores are no fluke -- the Rams are calling plays for Austin as if they want him to be fantasy-relevant, which is how it should work when you invest a first-round pick on a receiver. John Brown may have more upside in any given week, but with Austin the top guy in St. Louis and Brown sharing touches with Larry Fitzgerald and an emerging Michael Floyd, I'd rather own the Rams speedster in yearly leagues than Brown.

• I've gushed over Mike Evans a couple of times now, but Alshon Jeffery is right there with him in the fantasy ranks. Alshon is in a great situation -- he's a terrific talent, has a QB who locks onto him, the Bears' bad defense will ensure his volume remains high and Chicago's schedule is favorable. Look at what Alshon will enjoy in the fantasy playoffs: Wash, at Minn, at TB. Sign me up.

• If Le'Veon Bell's injury taught you nothing else, it should be to go stash Tevin Coleman and Thomas Rawls on your bench.

•Matt Ryan has to be one of the most disappointing fantasy players (among those who have remained healthy) in 2015. Despite having Julio Jones at his disposal, Ryan has yet to post a three-TD game all season. The last two weeks, the Falcons managed just 10 and 20 points against two of the NFL's doormats. I gave Atlanta a pass for the Week 7 showing on the road, but scoring just 20 points at home in an overtime game against a Bucs defense that came into the game allowing nearly 30 PPG is inexcusable. If Ryan is your QB, you need to aim higher.

• After Week 1, when the Titans killed the Bucs, Twitter exploded with "Mariota over Winston" arguments, basically laughing at the Bucs for drafting the Florida State product. The last three weeks, though, Winston has played really well, posting five total TDs with zero turnovers, as the Bucs were a defensive collapse in Washington away from three straight wins. It seems the Mariota vs. Winston argument will wage on for years to come.

• The Lions entered Week 8 as the NFL's worst defense in YPA, QB Rating and rushing TDs allowed. The Chiefs' 45-point explosion should hence come as no surprise. There's no defense in fantasy I'd rather pick on.

• I'm never going to be first to jump aboard the bandwagons of old, no-pedigree guys like Ben Watson and Gary Barnidge. But after a huge game for the second time in three weeks - 9-147-1 - I suppose it's time to take Watson seriously. Yes, that's 34-year-old Ben Watson, more known before now for his outspoken views on Christianity than anything he's done on the football field.

• I'd love a cogent explanation why Duke Johnson didn't get more touches on Sunday. He looks to my eye like the Browns' most explosive (if not best) offensive player.

• The most shocking event I saw in Week 8 was Derek Carr carving up the Jets' defense: 333 yards, 9.3 YPA, 4 TDs, 0 INTs. Is Carr the NFL's Most Improved Player? Either way, the Raiders are suddenly more than a fun fantasy team; they're a legitimate contender for a wild card in the AFC.

• Here are Nate Washington's targets in the games he's started and finished this year: 11, 8, 9, 16, 6. On a Texans team without a good running back or defense, I see no reason that will change. I actually played Washington in my cash games in DFS this week, and only a Week 9 bye will stop me from doing so again.

As always, I perused the pricing on DraftKings for Week 9, and here's what jumped out at me:

Quarterback

Philip Rivers vs. Bears, $6,900: Rivers may slow down at some point, but it won't be against the Bears' leaky secondary.

If you want to go contrarian, i.e. not roster Rivers, there are a ton of near-minimum salary guys (all $5,300 or less) with good matchups, all of whom have 300-yard, three-TD upside. Marcus Mariota gets the Saints and their NFL-worst 20 passing TDs allowed. Tyrod Taylor and his teammates should be healthy off the bye and get a Miami D without Cameron Wake. Jay Cutler will shoot it out with Philip Rivers in a game that could easily be played in the 30s. Jameis Winson gets the Giants defense that looks like it had 10 men on the field every play against the Saints. I can make arguments for any of these players.

Running Back

Todd Gurley at Vikings, $6,900: The top running backs are typically more than $8,000, week after week. So why is Gurley -- now widely viewed as the top back in fantasy -- still under $7K? The Vikings' run D isn't bad, but it doesn't justify this discount.

Chris Ivory vs. Jaguars, $5,900: Whoever lines up at QB for the Jets this week, I expect New York to pound Ivory all game. Against a bad Jaguars defense, a 27-120-1 line is going to happen. Heck, maybe 27-120-2.

DeAngelo Williams vs. Raiders, $5,500: DeAngelo averaged 24 DK points the two weeks Le'Veon Bell was suspended earlier this year. Similar production in Week 9 would make Williams a bargain at this price.

Darren McFadden vs. Eagles, $4,300: Regardless of what I think of DMC or this matchup, this price is too low -- probably at least $1,000 too low -- for a three-down back.

Jeremy Langford vs. Chargers, $4,000: I have no idea if Langford is any good, but presuming Matt Forte misses this game, this is an awfully cheap price for a starting running back against the NFL's worst rush defense.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans vs. Giants, $6,800: Evans' Week 8 stats -- 3-48-0 -- don't reflect his usage (nine targets) or the defensive pass interference flags he drew. I'll have plenty of exposure to Evans against a Giants defense that just got lit up by Drew Brees,

Alshon Jeffery vs. Chargers, $6,700: An 8K player without an 8K price tag. Yes, please.

Stefon Diggs vs. Rams, $5,300: Diggs' price has risen more slowly than his consistent, WR1-type production justifies. This is at least $1,000 too cheap relative to the other wideouts on the board.

Stevie Johnson vs. Bears, $3,200: Keep an eye on Keenan Allen's injury situation this week. If he's out, this is an insane value for Johnson.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski vs. Redskins, $8,000: Any DFS lineup often begins with the question "Do I Gronk?" Invariably, I Gronk.

Jordan Reed vs. Patriots, $4,500: This is the best value on the board, so much so that my Week 9 cash lineup will start with me putting Reed into the tight-end spot. Reed is just a beast when healthy (with targets similar to those of Gronk), and in this spot, with Washington playing catch-up, he has a massive ceiling and floor. Just hope he makes it through the game uninjured.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Giants, $2,800: Rostering guys off a long injury is tough, but the Giants have been getting killed by tight ends all year, and Jenkins should immediately be Winston's second option in the passing game. I love Jenkins as a GPP this week.