This article is part of our Run 'N' Shoot series.
Were the finishes to Sunday's early games any good or what?
• Several wild endings in Week 5 have made the AFC playoff picture as clear as it's ever been in mid-October. The Patriots, Broncos, Bengals and Colts are going to win their divisions, with two of the first three earning byes (sorry, Indy -- you're playing on wild-card weekend). The Jets, Bills, Chargers and Steelers are fighting for the two wild cards, with the loser of Monday night's Chargers-Steelers game facing a huge, uphill battle the rest of 2015. Everyone else in the AFC is dead and buried.
• The Chiefs' 2015 funeral was Sunday against the Bears, especially with Jamaal Charles out for the year. Playoff teams don't lose at home to Chicago. If you need to replace Charles in fantasy, then Charcandrick West, not Knile Davis, is the waiver claim. That said, we have no idea if West is any good, so Davis is worth stashing in deeper formats on the chance West doesn't pan out. As a Charles owner in Stopa Law Firm League, I'm pretty jaded. Do I have to talk about this any more? Let's move on.
• The Ravens' name-brand defense is now completely dead. They're a defense to exploit in fantasy, not avoid.
•Josh McCown has thrown for 340-plus yards and two TDs in three straight games, but his schedule the next four games is brutal -- Denver, at St. Louis, Arizona, at Cincinnati. There's no way I'd play
Were the finishes to Sunday's early games any good or what?
• Several wild endings in Week 5 have made the AFC playoff picture as clear as it's ever been in mid-October. The Patriots, Broncos, Bengals and Colts are going to win their divisions, with two of the first three earning byes (sorry, Indy -- you're playing on wild-card weekend). The Jets, Bills, Chargers and Steelers are fighting for the two wild cards, with the loser of Monday night's Chargers-Steelers game facing a huge, uphill battle the rest of 2015. Everyone else in the AFC is dead and buried.
• The Chiefs' 2015 funeral was Sunday against the Bears, especially with Jamaal Charles out for the year. Playoff teams don't lose at home to Chicago. If you need to replace Charles in fantasy, then Charcandrick West, not Knile Davis, is the waiver claim. That said, we have no idea if West is any good, so Davis is worth stashing in deeper formats on the chance West doesn't pan out. As a Charles owner in Stopa Law Firm League, I'm pretty jaded. Do I have to talk about this any more? Let's move on.
• The Ravens' name-brand defense is now completely dead. They're a defense to exploit in fantasy, not avoid.
•Josh McCown has thrown for 340-plus yards and two TDs in three straight games, but his schedule the next four games is brutal -- Denver, at St. Louis, Arizona, at Cincinnati. There's no way I'd play him, or any other Browns, against the Broncos this week, but remember McCown as a bye-week starter in a good matchup.
• How did the Lions make the playoffs in 2014? Matthew Stafford stinks, and the Detroit defense is somehow even worse (9.2 YPA, 116 QB rating are off-the-charts figures). Other passing defenses that should have you licking your chops in fantasy:
49ers: 8.9 YPA, 298 yards/game, 108 QB Rating
Saints: 9.1 YPA, 273 yards/game, 108 QB Rating
Chiefs: 13 TDs (only 2 other teams are above 10), 102 QB Rating
Bucs: 12 TDs, 102 QB Rating
Bears: 11 TDs, 105 QB Rating
Browns: 7.9 YPA, 10 TDs, 101 QB Rating
These defenses are so bad they'll ensure volume for their own offenses. That's why Mike Evans might be my favorite buy-low now. The Bucs are last in the NFL in points allowed, and, for all his bad decision-making, Jameis Winston is willing to throw it downfield. Plus, the Bucs schedule doesn't have a tough matchup on it. The huge games for Evans are coming; go make sure his owner realizes it.
• The Jaguars are the AFC's version of the Bucs -- terrible defense ensures volume for young QB and his wideouts. Jacksonville has a similarly appealing schedule, too. Who cares if much of the production will come in garbage time?
• Without LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams and Sammy Watkins, Buffalo's offense was stuck in the mud for much of Sunday's game. Once they got down-double digits, the Bills went with the Russell Wilson gameplan, giving it to Tyrod Taylor and letting him make something happen by himself. That works against lesser teams like the Titans, but it won't work against the Bengals this week. Bills fans have to hope two of those three guys are healthy by Sunday.
• I've watched three of their games from start to finish and I still have no idea if the Giants are any good.
•Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders benefit from a Broncos offense that directs most of its targets to the two of them, but with Peyton Manning clearly not the same, a running game that can't get out of neutral and a defense that limits volume, neither will approach his projected TD totals from the preseason. I'd rather own Randall Cobb, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans and Julian Edelman than either Denver wideout.
•Andy Dalton is the second-ranked QB in fantasy football. Andy Dalton! As I look at the Bengals schedule and the use of Jeremy Hill (or lack thereof), I'm not sure I see a reason to sell Dalton high, either. Let's put it this way: I've been chatting with Yahoo's Mike Salfino about prospective trades involving Drew Brees in Stopa Law Firm League. He owns Dalton. Would you trade Brees for Dalton straight up? Even with the Saints' porous defense ensuring Brees' volume, I'm thinking about it.
• Here are some values that jumped out at me as I peeked at DraftKings' pricing for Week 6:
Quarterback
Philip Rivers vs. Packers, $6,300: When Green Bay is on at home (and you know they will be), Rivers will be chucking it all game. This is my favorite game to stack for Week 6.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Bengals, $5,600: Near minimum salary for a guy who runs a lot when the Bills are trailing, as they may well be this week? This price should be 1K higher.
Blake Bortles vs. Texans, $5,200: There's no such thing as style points in fantasy. Bortles has been huge at a rock-bottom price for consecutive weeks. I see no reason he can't do it again.
Running Back
Dion Lewis vs. Colts, $5,800: Lewis' price finally went up, but even here, it's several hundred dollars too cheap. Lewis is the NFL's most elusive running back, per PFF, by a country mile, and his use out of the backfield gives him a great floor in full-point PPR.
Ronnie Hillman vs. Browns, $4,600: Cleveland has the NFL's worst run defense. I wouldn't trust Hillman in cash, but in a GPP, this could be the week he busts out.
LeGarrette Blount vs. Colts, $4,400: The Patriots game plan based on their opponent's weaknesses perhaps more than any other team. Historically, they've gone smashmouth against the Colts. Will this be a Blount week? I don't think so; Lewis has been too good. But what if it is? Even if not, this is a cheap price, one Blount could easily earn if the Pats get a big lead and run late.
Wide Receiver
Donte Moncrief vs. Patriots, $5,000: The Colts are at home, Andrew Luck should be back and they'll throw a lot to keep up with the Patriots. This is one of the week's best values.
Eric Decker vs. Redskins, $4,900:Brandon Marshall is $7,100. Is he really that much better than Decker? Heck, I'd argue Decker is the better player irrespective of the $2,200 savings.
Marquess Wilson vs. Lions, $4,000: Wilson has at least six catches, 80 yards and eight targets each of the last two weeks. Detroit's pass defense is terrible, and Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are hurt. I'll have exposure to Wilson this week.
Ty Montgomery vs. Chargers, $3,500: A good way to get action on a high-scoring game without spending a pretty penny. I like Montgomery more at home, too, where the Packers score more often.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski vs. Colts, $7,600: Do you think Gronk is going to be quiet in consecutive games? This strikes me as a week to Gronk in DFS.
Zach Ertz vs. Giants, $2,900: The Giants have become Raiders-esque against opposing tight ends, getting burned by that position week after week. If you need some salary relief, this is a solid way to do it.
