This article is part of our Run 'N' Shoot series.
Through 11 weeks, there's little doubt the Panthers and Cardinals are the two best teams in the NFC. In fact, if I had to pick the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl and could choose those two or the field, I'd take those two (and let you have the field). Who'd have thought anyone would say that in the preseason?
Carson Palmer going ham without Michael Floyd against a top defense made an MVP statement. Let's see if Tom Brady can do the same Monday night.
• Was anyone more impressive in Week 11 than the Bucs? Doug Martin showed a terrific combination of speed and power, running all over Philly for 235 yards. Perhaps not coincidentally, Jameis Winston also had his best game as a pro, posting five TDs, zero INTs, 8.5 YPA and a 131.6 QB Rating. Since Tampa Bay's Week 6 bye, Winston has 11 total TDs versus just two INTs, forcing many who argued Marcus Mariota should have been the top choice in the 2015 Draft to reconsider. Martin's running undoubtedly helped Jameis on Sunday, but don't sleep on the impact of Vincent Jackson's return to the lineup. Jackson didn't set the world on fire (4-56-1 on six targets), but he enabled Winston to spread the ball around and not lock in exclusively on Mike Evans (4-63-1 on seven targets). Now 5-5, Tampa's arrow is certainly pointed up.
• The Falcons were as disappointing as the Bucs were impressive. They might have started 5-0 and
Through 11 weeks, there's little doubt the Panthers and Cardinals are the two best teams in the NFC. In fact, if I had to pick the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl and could choose those two or the field, I'd take those two (and let you have the field). Who'd have thought anyone would say that in the preseason?
Carson Palmer going ham without Michael Floyd against a top defense made an MVP statement. Let's see if Tom Brady can do the same Monday night.
• Was anyone more impressive in Week 11 than the Bucs? Doug Martin showed a terrific combination of speed and power, running all over Philly for 235 yards. Perhaps not coincidentally, Jameis Winston also had his best game as a pro, posting five TDs, zero INTs, 8.5 YPA and a 131.6 QB Rating. Since Tampa Bay's Week 6 bye, Winston has 11 total TDs versus just two INTs, forcing many who argued Marcus Mariota should have been the top choice in the 2015 Draft to reconsider. Martin's running undoubtedly helped Jameis on Sunday, but don't sleep on the impact of Vincent Jackson's return to the lineup. Jackson didn't set the world on fire (4-56-1 on six targets), but he enabled Winston to spread the ball around and not lock in exclusively on Mike Evans (4-63-1 on seven targets). Now 5-5, Tampa's arrow is certainly pointed up.
• The Falcons were as disappointing as the Bucs were impressive. They might have started 5-0 and currently occupy the sixth seed in the NFC, but it's hard to characterize them as playoff-worthy when they lose to Matt Hasselbeck at home after a bye. Matt Ryan finally had a three-TD game in 2015, but three INTs and 6.1 YPA is awfully disappointing when he has Julio Jones at his disposal.
• The Lions entered their Week 9 bye 1-8, a lame-duck head coach and the NFL's worst defense in YPA, QB Rating and rushing TDs allowed. In the two games since, I tried to take advantage in DFS, yet they stomped on the Packers and Raiders, the latter after I trusted Derek Carr in cash games for the first time this year (sigh). So what do we make of Detroit's defense now? The season stats still look ugly, but I'm inclined to think they fixed something over the bye, and Lions D might actually be a cheap, under-the-radar fantasy play on Thanksgiving against the turnover-prone Mark Sanchez.
• Fantasy football can be maddening and leave you feeling foolish. Nothing is worse, though, than watching Spencer Ware run all over the Chargers (11-96-2) when you started Charcandrick West in dozens of DFS lineups. Devonta Freeman killed DFS owners, too, but after he left with an injury, at least you could convince yourself he wouldn't have had a big day because Tevin Coleman couldn't muster anything in his place (17-48-0 and 0 receptions).
•Joe Flacco's torn ACL and Justin Forsett's broken arm put a symbolic end to a dreadful 2015 for the Ravens. With the bye weeks in the rear-view mirror, it will be hard to see using anyone on Baltimore in fantasy other than Javorius Allen (in a high floor, low ceiling, low-end RB2 sort of way).
• Is there any doubt the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East? As an NFL fan, I sure hope they win the division, ensuring the best playoff matchups possible.
• With Keenan Allen in the lineup, Philip Rivers was on pace to break the all-time single-season yardage record. Without him (and, in fairness, there have been other injuries in San Diego as well), Rivers has been unusable in fantasy. With the bye weeks behind us, it's safe to cut Rivers in shallow leagues.
•Thomas Rawls doesn't strike me as an elite physical talent (he's an undrafted rookie), yet he flashes a terrific combination of vision, elusiveness and speed. He's a better player than Marshawn Lynch now, and no matter how the rest of this season unfolds, I'd be surprised if Rawls didn't enter 2016 as Seattle's starting tailback.
• My access to injury information as of this writing is limited, but from what I know now, I'd rank my FAAB choices like this: Spencer Ware, Thomas Rawls, Javorius Allen, Tevin Coleman. (Rawls is instantly first though if Lynch is out for the year.) But shame on you if you didn't have some of these guys stashed on your bench already. (As a subscriber and Twitter follower just reminded me, (@MarkStopa), I stashed DeAngelo, Rawls and Tevin on my five-man bench in the Stopa Law Firm League the week before Le'Veon Bell got hurt. That approach can often feel hopeless, but it makes your year when it works.)
• Anyone using Jacob Tamme can safely cut him now that Leonard Hankerson has returned. Tamme's splits with and without Tamme in the lineup are significant, as we saw again Sunday (1-16-0 on three targets even though Matt Ryan threw 46 times).
•DeAndre Hopkins thinks Revis Island is a great place to visit on an NFL Sunday (5-118-2). Revis is still a top corner and grades out highly on PFF, but Hopkins beat him deep twice on Sunday (one resulted in a long TD, a second was overthrown) after Revis was beaten deep similarly last week. This might be the first signs of an elite player slowing down -- when his mind thinks he can play tight press coverage and catch up if the receiver goes deep but his body doesn't quite enable him to do so.
•Eddie Lacy looked good while posting 22-100-0 on Sunday, finally resembling the back we saw the past couple years. James Starks, meanwhile, looked like the career backup he's always been (8-14-0). Appearing healthy for the first time in weeks, expect Lacy to be the guy to own. He's instantly a top-15 fantasy RB again.
• Here are my thoughts upon my first glance at this week's prices on DraftKings. As always, I'll concentrate on the cheap options; you don't need me to tell you to play the studs.
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger at Seahawks, $6,700: This matchup looks bad on paper, but that's what we want for DFS tournaments. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant are healthy and coming off a bye and Seattle got lit up by Carson Palmer a few weeks ago, so we know it can happen. I'll roll the dice on Ben's 300-yard, three-TD upside.
T.J. Yates vs. Saints, $5,300: Do you think the Saints fixed their problems on defense over the bye? It can happen, see Detroit, but I doubt it. Houston doesn't have much of a running game, so it's hard to see Yates not throwing for at least two TDs against this defense.
Running Back
T.J. Yeldon vs. Chargers, $4,800: San Diego is dead last in the NFL defending the run. Yeldon has yet to have a breakout game in his rookie season, but he's a solid bet to return 3x value in this spot.
Eddie Lacy vs. Bears, $4,700: Lacy is still cheaper than James Starks despite Sunday's box score. I doubt that will be the case again in 2015, and I'd be surprised if Lacy isn't much more expensive next week.
Shaun Draughn vs. Cardinals, $3,800: I know this matchup and the 49ers offense are both terrible. But Draughn is getting starter's touches and had eight catches as the Niners played from behind on Sunday. In a full-point PPR format, that gives Draughn a nice floor, making him a viable (dare I say it) consideration for cash games if you want to pay up for studs elsewhere.
Wide Receiver
Martavis Bryant at Seahawks, $5,600: Bryant reminds me a bit of Michael Floyd, who lit up Seattle with deep routes two weeks ago. This is a reasonable price for a guy with Bryant's upside.
Sammy Watkins vs. Chiefs, $5,200: Watkins was a $7,000 player in Week 1. He's had a tough season, but he's now healthy, and the Chiefs are ranked last in the NFL at defending WRs in DK's scoring format. If Watkins looks good Monday night, he will be heavily owned in Week 12 at this price.
Stevie Johnson at Jaguars, $4,500: Pay attention to the injury statuses of Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green and Malcom Floyd. So long as those three are all nicked up and/or not playing, Johnson is Philip Rivers' top target. In DK's full-point PPR, Johnson is a viable choice in cash games again this week.
Marquess Wilson at Packers, $3,900: Wilson has been a reliable fantasy contributor whenever Alshon Jeffery has been on the shelf, as we saw again on Sunday against a good Denver secondary. If Alshon can't get healthy by Thanksgiving, Wilson should be a fixture in DFS lineups at this price.
Devin Funchess at Cowboys, $3,900: Funchess led the Panthers in targets and yards in Week 8. Carolina's top draft pick is about to break out, yet this price doesn't reflect it.
Note: Wilson and Funchess are both stone-minimum salary on the Yahoo DFS game this week. Yes, please.
Defense
Lions vs. Eagles, $2,200:Mark Sanchez is a turnover machine, is headed to Detroit on a short week and the Lions improved defense is nearly minimum salary. Sign me up.
