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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Sunday Night Football Week 4
The Chiefs (2-1) head down to Raymond James Stadium to do battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) in a primetime rematch of Super Bowl LIV. Both teams are coming off close Week 3 losses, and Tampa Bay could once again be playing with a short-handed receiver corps.
The Chiefs dropped a 20-17 decision to the Colts in which Kansas City blew a fourth-quarter lead and was shut out overall in the final 15 minutes. Meanwhile, the Bucs were down their top three wideouts against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which led to them falling by a 14-12 score.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Sunday Night Football Week 4
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs +100 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Buccaneers -110 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chiefs +1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Buccaneers -0.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 45.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Under 46 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The line for this game has evolved from the Chiefs opening as narrow favorites when it was first released prior to Week 3 to its current number of Buccaneers -1. However, there's actually been more drastic movement than that would imply, as KC was as much as a three-point favorite early in the week before a sharp descent began Tuesday that's culminated in the two teams swapping underdog/favorite designations.
The total has also undergone some major shifts. It opened at 48.5 in the middle of last week before dipping all the way to 44 in the immediate aftermath of Week 3. After a few more rises and dips, it's settled at 45.5-46 at most sportsbooks, despite the uncertainty surrounding the Buccaneers' receiving corps.
The movement of the spread here is arguably the more eye-catching of the two, considering how lackluster the Buccaneers have been on offense thus far and the likelihood Tom Brady has to play short-handed yet again.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Picks This Week
The normally prolific Chiefs had a bit of rare offensive discord in Week 3 against the Colts, when cameras caught Patrick Mahomes arguing with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy heading to the halftime locker room about a lack of offensive aggressiveness late in the second quarter. Mahomes' discontent proved to be prescient, as KC ultimately fell to Indy by a 20-17 margin.
Whether that will lead to a busier night for Mahomes against the Buccaneers remains to be seen, but the Packers, playing with a short-handed receiving corps, did hit some plays against Tampa Bay in Week 3. Mahomes should have a full arsenal of pass catchers at his disposal, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has an abdomen injury, expects to play. The Bucs have notably given up some production to tight ends as well – Tampa Bay has allowed a 19-165 line to the position on 25 targets – so Travis Kelce could certainly have a bigger role than versus Indy, where he started fast but finished with only a 4-58-1 line on eight targets.
The biggest story surrounding this game besides the Mahomes-Tom Brady matchup is the health of the latter's receiver corps. Brady will definitely have Mike Evans back from his one-game suspension, but the availability of the rest of his wideout crew is mostly up in the air.
Late Saturday night reports indicated there's optimism about both Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) being able to play, although whether they'd handle a normal amount of snaps remains to be seen. Russell Gage (hamstring) is also questionable but likely to play, while Breshad Perriman (knee) is doubtful.
The Chiefs have allowed a modest 227.3 passing yards per game through three weeks. KC has also gotten good pressure (10 sacks) and has done an excellent job limiting big plays, allowing an AFC-low 8.1 yards per completion. Then, Kansas City has also been very stingy versus the run, yielding 86.7 rushing yards per game and the third-fewest RB yards per carry (3.43). Consequently, they appear to have the caliber of unit to give a suspect Bucs offensive line that's conceded six sacks through three games and facilitated only 3.72 RB yards per carry plenty of trouble in both phases.
This is a game where both offenses, despite the big names, should have some issues sustaining drives at times. The Bucs simply haven't been in good form on that side of the ball, however, and the injuries that have largely been at fault aren't completely out of the picture even if Godwin and Jones can play. Consequently, I'm in the camp of a Chiefs upset by a very narrow margin.
Chiefs at Buccaneers Best Bets: Chiefs moneyline (+100 at PointsBet Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
This isn't the right opponent for the Chiefs offense to bounce back completely against, nor is it the right set of conditions for Brady and company to get on the right track either. The scoreboard won't necessarily be kept humming here, but the talent on each squad will allow for a decent amount of points to be scored. However, with Mahomes simply having the healthier arsenal of weapons, I'm seeing a narrow win for KC as a result.
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