This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Bills' loss to the Jets was the only major upset last week, but it probably didn't wreck too many Survivor pools, as they were not one of the more heavily picked teams. In my pool, only two entrants died at the hands of the Bills.
Most were on the Chiefs, who hung on to beat the Titans. Had the Chiefs lost, now that would have been a pool-wrecker. Ten of the remaining 15 entrants in my pool last week had the Chiefs (wonder if they read this article). Of the original 410, my poll is down to 13 Survivors.
On to Week 10.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIANTS | Texans | 29.8% | 249 | 71.35% | 8.54 |
| CHIEFS | Jaguars | 27.7% | 402.5 | 80.10% | 5.51 |
| 49ERS | Chargers | 11.0% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 2.96 |
| RAIDERS | Colts | 8.8% | 249 | 71.35% | 2.52 |
| EAGLES | Commanders | 8.3% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 1.54 |
| DOLPHINS | Browns | 3.2% | 172 | 63.24% | 1.18 |
| TITANS | Broncos | 2.8% | 137 | 57.81% | 1.18 |
| Cowboys | PACKERS | 2.2% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.73 |
| BEARS | Lions | 2.2% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.91 |
| BILLS | Vikings | 1.3% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.42 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 1.3% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.54 |
| Buccaneers* | Seahawks | 0.3% | 131.5 | 56.80% | 0.13 |
| RAMS | Cardinals | 0.2% |
The Bills' loss to the Jets was the only major upset last week, but it probably didn't wreck too many Survivor pools, as they were not one of the more heavily picked teams. In my pool, only two entrants died at the hands of the Bills.
Most were on the Chiefs, who hung on to beat the Titans. Had the Chiefs lost, now that would have been a pool-wrecker. Ten of the remaining 15 entrants in my pool last week had the Chiefs (wonder if they read this article). Of the original 410, my poll is down to 13 Survivors.
On to Week 10.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIANTS | Texans | 29.8% | 249 | 71.35% | 8.54 |
| CHIEFS | Jaguars | 27.7% | 402.5 | 80.10% | 5.51 |
| 49ERS | Chargers | 11.0% | 271.5 | 73.08% | 2.96 |
| RAIDERS | Colts | 8.8% | 249 | 71.35% | 2.52 |
| EAGLES | Commanders | 8.3% | 437.5 | 81.40% | 1.54 |
| DOLPHINS | Browns | 3.2% | 172 | 63.24% | 1.18 |
| TITANS | Broncos | 2.8% | 137 | 57.81% | 1.18 |
| Cowboys | PACKERS | 2.2% | 201 | 66.78% | 0.73 |
| BEARS | Lions | 2.2% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.91 |
| BILLS | Vikings | 1.3% | 206 | 67.32% | 0.42 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 1.3% | 142 | 58.68% | 0.54 |
| Buccaneers* | Seahawks | 0.3% | 131.5 | 56.80% | 0.13 |
| RAMS | Cardinals | 0.2% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.08 |
| Saints | STEELERS | 0.1% | 131.5 | 56.80% | 0.04 |
* At Munich
The Eagles have value because they are the week's biggest favorite but only the fifth-most picked Survivor team. (That, of course, is because most surviving entrants have already picked them.) However, two teams at the top — Giants and Chiefs — each have roughly 30 percent of the pool. So, you'd need both to lose to make this a straight Eagles pot-odds play, but now you're talking about getting two independent events to go your way. All of which is to say, the Eagles are a fine pick to survive, but you're probably not significantly gaining on the pool this week by doing it. Don't feel compelled to take the Eagles.
The good news is there are decent options this week, even for those who have already taken the top teams.
My Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars have their moments, but they likely won't have enough in this one. The Chiefs usually play well at home, and the Jags are mediocre at best. Maybe Trevor Lawrence goes nuts, but even then, Patrick Mahomes can answer him pass for pass. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are probably not available in most pools. It's actually a little surprising that they're still available for nearly a third of the entrants at Officefootballpools.com.
Philadelphia Eagles
The only slight hesitation, perhaps, is this is a division game. But the Eagles are clearly superior to a Commanders team averaging 17.7 points per game.
New York Giants
This could be the quickest game of the year if both teams just run, run, run. That's about all the Texans have. But Dameon Pierce ran 27 times for 139 yards last week against the Eagles and the Texans still lost by double digits. The Giants at home coming off a bye seems safe enough.
Las Vegas Raiders
It's perhaps a little surprising that the Raiders aren't more popular this week. That's probably because the Raiders are so ugly. But the Colts are even uglier. Maybe new Colts coach Jeff Saturday is some sort of grand motivator/teacher who in less than a week's time can get Indy to play out of its mind for one Sunday. If not, the Raiders, despite looking terrible at times, should win at home. After firing Frank Reich, the Colts don't have a coach who has called offensive plays. Even if that's less an issue than it seems, Sam Ehlinger is still the quarterback, which is definitely a big issue, as is Jonathan Taylor's gimpy ankle. The Colts have failed to top 20 points in eight of nine games this season.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have flaws, but after a bye last week they face a Chargers team that has major health problems. Without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last week, Justin Herbert had 5.7 YPA against the league's worst pass defense in the Falcons. If the Chargers were at full strength, I'd stay away from this game. But they're not.
Dallas Cowboys
The Packers are not good, and this week only gets harder. They return home, only to find the Cowboys waiting, well rested coming off a bye. At first glance, this might look like a game where the downtrodden team can get right at home against a better opponent that perhaps takes it too lightly. That doesn't appear likely. Playing the Packers at Lambeau makes it a big game — the Cowboys won't overlook it and have had two weeks to prepare. The Packers moved the ball well last week against the Lions but couldn't score. This week, it will be that much harder to move the ball.
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
If the Bills are still available, this is not the place to use them. Josh Allen's elbow injury is a problem, and the 7-1 Vikings have something to prove on the road against a popular Super Bowl pick.
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