This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was a mixed bag because while the Eagles lost, they weren't available to most owners, thus didn't knock out too many. The Raiders also choked, but they weren't widely picked either — because they're the Raiders.
In my pool, two of 13 remaining entries lost (both on the Eagles). That leaves 11 survivors of an original 410.
On to Week 11.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Panthers | 50.3% | 571 | 85.1% | 7.50 |
| BILLS | Browns | 16.1% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.54 |
| 49ers* | Cardinals | 10.6% | 296.5 | 74.8% | 2.67 |
| GIANTS | Lions | 4.8% | 153.5 | 60.6% | 1.89 |
| Bengals | STEELERS | 4.0% | 189 | 65.4% | 1.38 |
| Commanders | TEXANS | 3.6% | 148 | 59.7% | 1.45 |
| Eagles | COLTS | 2.5% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 0.67 |
| SAINTS | Rams | 2.4% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.85 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 1.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.58 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 1.4% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 0.38 |
| FALCONS | Bears | 0.6% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.24 |
| PACKERS | Titans | 0.5% | 153.5 | 60.6% | 0.20 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 0.5% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.22 |
| VIKINGS | Cowboys | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
* At Mexico City
We've reached the point where the selection numbers above are not nearly as applicable as they were earlier in the season. Survivor pools have thinned considerably, which means
Last week was a mixed bag because while the Eagles lost, they weren't available to most owners, thus didn't knock out too many. The Raiders also choked, but they weren't widely picked either — because they're the Raiders.
In my pool, two of 13 remaining entries lost (both on the Eagles). That leaves 11 survivors of an original 410.
On to Week 11.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind this Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Panthers | 50.3% | 571 | 85.1% | 7.50 |
| BILLS | Browns | 16.1% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.54 |
| 49ers* | Cardinals | 10.6% | 296.5 | 74.8% | 2.67 |
| GIANTS | Lions | 4.8% | 153.5 | 60.6% | 1.89 |
| Bengals | STEELERS | 4.0% | 189 | 65.4% | 1.38 |
| Commanders | TEXANS | 3.6% | 148 | 59.7% | 1.45 |
| Eagles | COLTS | 2.5% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 0.67 |
| SAINTS | Rams | 2.4% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.85 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 1.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.58 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 1.4% | 271.5 | 73.1% | 0.38 |
| FALCONS | Bears | 0.6% | 148 | 59.7% | 0.24 |
| PACKERS | Titans | 0.5% | 153.5 | 60.6% | 0.20 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 0.5% | 131.5 | 56.8% | 0.22 |
| VIKINGS | Cowboys | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
* At Mexico City
We've reached the point where the selection numbers above are not nearly as applicable as they were earlier in the season. Survivor pools have thinned considerably, which means you need to consult your own pool as to who's been picked this week and who your opponents have available. Ownership percentages above also include second-chance pools, adding further noise.
However, we can still learn from the numbers above. Does it make sense to fade the highly popular Ravens? Let's compare the risk and reward ratios of picking the Bills rather than the Ravens.
A Ravens win/Bills loss is .85 (Ravens' Vegas Odds of winning, rounded) multiplied by .22 (Bills' Vegas Odds of losing), which is 18.7 percent. A Bills win/Ravens loss is .78*.15 = 11.7 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 18.7/11.7 = 1.60.
For the reward ratio, we'll again use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Ravens win/Bills lose, 16 people are out on the Bills plus another 11 non-Bills owners projected to lose, for 27 total losers. 100-27 = 73 remaining owners, $1,000/73 = $13.70.
If the Bills win/Ravens lose, it's 50 out on the Ravens, plus 11 more, for 61 total. 100-61 = 39, $1,000/39 = $26.64. The reward ratio of $26.64/$13.70 is 1.94.
So, the risk ratio of picking the Bills is 1.60, but the reward is 1.94. At this point in the season, that's enough value to warrant fading the favorite Ravens and going with the Bills — assuming you can knock out half of your pool.
However, your pool likely will have decidedly different ownership percentages. For example, in my pool, 37.5 percent picked the Ravens this week (though not all picks are in as of Wednesday morning). So, what's the minimum ownership of the Ravens to still do better than break even on the risk/reward scale? Well, $13.70 reward * 1.60 risk = $21.92 in equity. That means, after doing a bit of calculating, you need at least 44 percent of your pool on the Ravens for it to be worth picking against them. That is, if 44 people in our 100-person pool picked the Ravens, than 55 (44 plus the 11 other losers) would be out if they lost, leaving $1,000/45, which is $22.22 in pool equity.
So, that's the minimum. The higher the Ravens' ownership, the better it is to pivot. Anything less than that number, you can go with the Ravens without thinking about it.
Picks below are in order of preference. If none of the teams below are available, put your options in the comments and we'll hash it out.
My Picks
Baltimore Ravens
Panthers-Ravens is the biggest spread on the board (12 points). The Panthers are coming off a big home win against the division-rival Falcons but are 0-4 on the road this year. Hard to see how they're not 0-5 after this one. The Ravens are rested after a bye and getting healthier (Mark Andrews is expected to play). Baker Mayfield is back at quarterback after an injury to PJ Walker, but that's not necessarily an improvement for Carolina. More important, the Panthers can't stop the run. The Ravens were the top pick Week 1, so they might not be available.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have lost two in a row, including a gut-wrenching loss last week to the Vikings. At home against a sub-par team, this is a must-win for Buffalo. The Browns are 31st in the league in points allowed (26.4 per game) and have just eight takeaways (27th). An eight-point spread seems small. Maybe it's because of Josh Allen's elbow, but the Bills insist he's healthy enough to make all the throws (his six interceptions the last three weeks notwithstanding). If the Bills are still available, this is the place to use them — their three remaining home games are against division opponents. Editor's note: The Bills were the original top pick, but ... up to 6 feet of snow is forecast. You really can't allow your Survivor pick to hinge on the vagaries of snow. Editor's Note II: The Browns-Bills game was moved to Detroit on Thursday. Therefore, I'm back on the Bills, though I'll put them as the second pick.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Colts had an emotional win in Jeff Saturday's coaching debut, and a letdown against the Eagles wouldn't be surprising. And as great as last week's win was, it came against the Raiders, who are not good defensively (28th in points allowed per game). Philly is coming off a tough division loss to Washington and should rebound, even though it's on the road. The Eagles were a popular pick a few earlier weeks and probably are long gone. If not, this is a good spot.
New York Giants
A third of pickers had the Giants last week and survived. If you held off, this is not a bad spot to take New York. The Lions earned a one-point victory last week at the Bears but were outplayed, giving up 408 yards and benefiting from a pick-6. A lot of those yards came from the legs of Justin Fields. But Daniel Jones can run too, as can Saquon Barkley, of course. The only team that gives up more on the ground than the Lions is the Texans, whom the Giants ran all over last week.
Washington Commanders
Washington had a big, emotional win Monday at the division-rival Eagles. Might it face a letdown this week? Probably not. The Texans have played nine games but still have allowed more rushing yards than any team. Washington ran for 152 yards last week against the Eagles. The game is in Houston, but it's not like the Texans, winless at home, have any advantage there. Washington has won four of its last five, the only loss coming against the Vikings after leading by 10 in the fourth quarter.
New Orleans Saints
Matthew Stafford, as of Wednesday morning, is still in the concussion protocol and Cooper Kupp is on IR with an ankle injury. The Rams' offense was abysmal with those two guys. Even if Stafford returns, how does this offense function without its only playmaker?
Kansas City Chiefs
Division games on the road have been known to go goofy. But if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out again, how do the Chargers keep up with the Chiefs? Both are expected to practice this week, but it's uncertain if they will play. If they're out, the Chiefs are a solid pick. However, it's unlikely the Chiefs are still available, which explains how only 1.4 percent of entrants at Officefootballpools.com picked them this week.
Notable Omission:
San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals haven't been good this season, and last week's win came against a John Wolford-led Rams. But I just don't trust 5-5 San Francisco enough to use in Survivor against a division rival in a foreign country. Who have the 49ers beaten this year? Their best win is ... the Seahawks in Week 2? Other than that, it's a sweep of the terrible Rams, a home win against the Chargers and a win at Carolina. The only above-average team they've faced is the Chiefs, and they got throttled. The game seems a lot closer than the eight-point spread, especially if Kyler Murray returns from a hamstring injury. But even if not, Colt McCoy wasn't bad last week in place of Murray, and, if memory serves, Mexico City should provide a decidedly pro-Cardinals crowd.
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