This article is part of our Survivor series.
Week 13 was on point in Survivor world, though the Chiefs needed another miracle and the Buccaneers needed overtime. The only Survivor pick that lost was the Ravens — the least-popular option with 0.1 percent of the vote.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 14.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEELERS | Browns | 25.5% | 270 | 73.0% | 6.89 |
| EAGLES | Panthers | 24.6% | 600 | 85.7% | 3.51 |
| BUCCANEERS | Raiders | 17.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 4.78 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 8.5% | 250 | 71.4% | 2.43 |
| Saints | GIANTS | 6.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.07 |
| VIKINGS | Falcons | 5.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.57 |
| Bengals | COWBOYS | 4.8% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.48 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 2.5% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.88 |
| 49ERS | Bears | 2.2% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.78 |
| Bills | RAMS | 1.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.43 |
| CARDINALS | Seahawks | 0.6% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.26 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 0.3% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.11 |
| LIONS | Packers | 0.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.07 |
Six teams have a bye this week, which means fewer Survivor options. But there are still some good picks, and teams that probably haven't been used as much.
With the Steelers and Eagles grabbing 50 percent of the vote and the Buccaneers taking another 18 percent, there isn't a pot-odds play this week. But site-wide popularity has less relevance now anyway. Your pick should be
Week 13 was on point in Survivor world, though the Chiefs needed another miracle and the Buccaneers needed overtime. The only Survivor pick that lost was the Ravens — the least-popular option with 0.1 percent of the vote.
In my pool, all survived. Of the original 442, five remain.
On to Week 14.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEELERS | Browns | 25.5% | 270 | 73.0% | 6.89 |
| EAGLES | Panthers | 24.6% | 600 | 85.7% | 3.51 |
| BUCCANEERS | Raiders | 17.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 4.78 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 8.5% | 250 | 71.4% | 2.43 |
| Saints | GIANTS | 6.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.07 |
| VIKINGS | Falcons | 5.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.57 |
| Bengals | COWBOYS | 4.8% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.48 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 2.5% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.88 |
| 49ERS | Bears | 2.2% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.78 |
| Bills | RAMS | 1.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.43 |
| CARDINALS | Seahawks | 0.6% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.26 |
| CHIEFS | Chargers | 0.3% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.11 |
| LIONS | Packers | 0.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.07 |
Six teams have a bye this week, which means fewer Survivor options. But there are still some good picks, and teams that probably haven't been used as much.
With the Steelers and Eagles grabbing 50 percent of the vote and the Buccaneers taking another 18 percent, there isn't a pot-odds play this week. But site-wide popularity has less relevance now anyway. Your pick should be weighed against the options still available to your competition — e.g., if the majority still has the Eagles left, go with the Steelers.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles' popularity this week is capped, likely because many Survivors used Philly in Weeks 6 and 9. Otherwise, the Eagles would be the pick of the week against Panthers. Carolina has played much better in the last month, beating the Saints and Giants and losing on last-second field goals to the Chiefs and Buccaneers, the latter in overtime. But playing at Philadelphia is a different level. The Eagles are the best running team in the league while the Panthers have the league's worst run defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' only loss in their last seven games was at the Browns two weeks ago in heavy snow. Time for revenge in this AFC North rivalry. Russell Wilson has the Pittsburgh offense playing at a high level, and the Steelers' defense has a better chance of corralling the Browns offense than Cleveland defense has against Pittsburgh's offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs halted a four-game losing streak with wins against the Giants and Panthers the last two weeks. Lucky for them, they get a third consecutive incompetent team in the Raiders. Las Vegas played Kansas City tough last week but won't have the same familiarity and confidence against Tampa Bay.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins got smacked in cold Green Bay on Thanksgiving, but that was their first clunker since Tua Tagovailoa returned six games ago, and at least they've had extra days to recover. This week's game brings to town the Jets, who did next to nothing on offense last week against the Seahawks. They had one legit drive in the first quarter, which resulted in a TD, and then scored again on a short-field, four-play drive, finishing the opening quarter with 14 points, 110 yards and eight first downs. The next three quarters the offense totaled zero points, 154 yards and nine first downs. Back in warm weather, the Dolphins should outrun a Jets team in disarray.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals' defense was non-existent last week against the Steelers (the pick six should have been PI), but with CeeDee Lamb ailing, the Cowboys don't have the weapons — *any* weapons — with which to exploit it. Even if Lamb is completely healthy, he's averaged about 50 receiving yards per game with Cooper Rush. How can they possibly keep pace with a Bengals offense that has averaged a league-leading 33.3 points per game since Week 9? It's not like the Cowboys have a stout defense.
Minnesota Vikings
This is a bet that the Vikings' defense — first in interceptions (18), fourth in sacks (39) — can frustrate the error-prone Kirk Cousins into mistakes in his return to Minnesota. The Vikings boast the league's top-ranked run defense, and the Falcons aren't necessarily a great running team to begin with, so this is going to be all on Cousins. However, if you think the Cousins revenge factor outweighs the Cousins risk factor, then stay away.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans aren't often a Survivor favorite, but they're a decent option this week at home against a Jaguars team that is missing Trevor Lawrence and has perhaps the worst defense in the league.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
San Francisco 49ers
Perhaps this isn't "notable" enough (only 2.2 percent of Survivors are on the 49ers), but this is a great example of why saving teams is a fool's errand. Early in the season, the 49ers at home against the Bears looked plenty attractive. But after numerous injuries and mediocrity, the 49ers are no longer even close to a sure thing. Meanwhile, the Bears just fired their coach, which sometimes gives teams a bounce, and in any event, Chicago has been better offensively since switching coordinators a while back.
