This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week's Survivor slate went to form, almost. The Ravens choked against the Browns as the third-most popular team. The Jets (fifth-most popular) lost too, but they were our notable omission, so no one should have picked them.
Otherwise, most Survivor picks won, even if it took the Commanders a Hail Mary.
In my pool, one Survivor was eliminated (on the Ravens). Of the original 442, nine remain.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Broncos | 20.5% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 3.81 |
| EAGLES | Jaguars | 19.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.63 |
| BENGALS | Raiders | 19.0% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.58 |
| VIKINGS | Colts | 10.6% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 3.29 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 10.0% | 305 | 75.3% | 2.47 |
| CHIEFS | Buccaneers | 9.2% | 400 | 80.0% | 1.84 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 5.4% | 250 | 71.4% | 1.54 |
| Commanders | GIANTS | 2.1% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.77 |
| TITANS | Patriots | 1.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.42 |
| Lions | PACKERS | 0.5% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.19 |
| Texans | JETS | 0.5% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.23 |
| FALCONS | Cowboys | 0.3% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.13 |
| Rams | SEAHAWKS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| CARDINALS | Bears | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| Chargers | BROWNS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
With three teams at about 20 percent popularity, there is no pot-odds pick this week. Go with whom you want. We used the
Last week's Survivor slate went to form, almost. The Ravens choked against the Browns as the third-most popular team. The Jets (fifth-most popular) lost too, but they were our notable omission, so no one should have picked them.
Otherwise, most Survivor picks won, even if it took the Commanders a Hail Mary.
In my pool, one Survivor was eliminated (on the Ravens). Of the original 442, nine remain.
(You are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.)
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Broncos | 20.5% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 3.81 |
| EAGLES | Jaguars | 19.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.63 |
| BENGALS | Raiders | 19.0% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.58 |
| VIKINGS | Colts | 10.6% | 222.5 | 69.0% | 3.29 |
| Saints | PANTHERS | 10.0% | 305 | 75.3% | 2.47 |
| CHIEFS | Buccaneers | 9.2% | 400 | 80.0% | 1.84 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 5.4% | 250 | 71.4% | 1.54 |
| Commanders | GIANTS | 2.1% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.77 |
| TITANS | Patriots | 1.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.42 |
| Lions | PACKERS | 0.5% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.19 |
| Texans | JETS | 0.5% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.23 |
| FALCONS | Cowboys | 0.3% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.13 |
| Rams | SEAHAWKS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| CARDINALS | Bears | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| Chargers | BROWNS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
With three teams at about 20 percent popularity, there is no pot-odds pick this week. Go with whom you want. We used the Eagles, the top pick below, in Week 6, so that leave us with the Saints.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Philadelphia Eagles
The Jaguars aren't good to begin with, and now they are severely injured at wide receiver. Christian Kirk is out for the season, Brian Thomas could miss this week's game and Gabe Davis likely will be limited with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are healthier and have won three in a row since their Week 5 bye, averaging 28.3 points per game. Doug Pederson's return to Philadelphia likely won't go well.
New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr is expected to play this week, which is great news for a Saints team that has lost six in a row. Another great thing for the Saints is this week's opponent, the Panthers. Carolina just traded Diontae Johnson, leaving it with basically nothing beyond Chuba Hubbard. The Saints really need a get-right game, and this is it.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have just three wins, which came against teams — Panthers, Giants, Browns — that have a combined five wins. This week's opponent, the Raiders, fits that mold. With a league-high 17 turnovers and just four takeaways, the Raiders are tied (Titans) for the worst turnover differential in the league at -13. That should work for the Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens let down Survivors last week, but they are the Survivor favorite this week against Denver. The Broncos have won five of their last six, but the only decent team they beat in that stretch is the Buccaneers. Otherwise, it's the Jets, Raiders, Saints and Panthers. The Broncos win with defense, but this will be their toughest test yet. Expect the Ravens to rebound at home.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings need to get back on the winning side of things after dropping their last two. At home Sunday night on a long week (after playing last Thursday) against the Colts seems like a good spot. The Colts might get a little shot in the arm with Joe Flacco at quarterback this week, but their defense could get run over by Aaron Jones.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
None. The top-5 teams look like safe picks (as much as that can be said this season). It might be tempting to fade the Chiefs (9.2 percent picked) if the Buccaneers weren't so banged up at wide receiver. The Lions, -185 at the Packers, could be listed here, but less than one percent of Survivors picked them this week, so who cares? The Rams and Cardinals are in a similar boat.
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