This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
When estimating the opportunities, I found three measurable options:
1. Using the Vegas gambling lines on total points scored and team spread.
2. Last season's pass attempts per game.
3. This season's pass attempts per game.
Besides the individual measures, I figured some combination of values would work best as the season progress. With it being the season's first week, in-season data can't be used so I will ignore it. Next week, I will compare my results to the standard RotoWire projections and then add the in-season data to Week 2's projections.
Also, I have no method to create a projection for Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. I will just have to ignore him for now.
To start with, I looked at the how the total points and spread help to estimate the number of pass attempts. The first part of the theory is simple, the more the points a team is projected to score, the more pass attempts and touchdowns for the team. Also, if the point spread is close in these high-scoring games, teams will keep passing to win. If a team is heavily favored, it is more likely to run the ball more to run out the clock.
When estimating the opportunities, I found three measurable options:
1. Using the Vegas gambling lines on total points scored and team spread.
2. Last season's pass attempts per game.
3. This season's pass attempts per game.
Besides the individual measures, I figured some combination of values would work best as the season progress. With it being the season's first week, in-season data can't be used so I will ignore it. Next week, I will compare my results to the standard RotoWire projections and then add the in-season data to Week 2's projections.
Also, I have no method to create a projection for Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. I will just have to ignore him for now.
To start with, I looked at the how the total points and spread help to estimate the number of pass attempts. The first part of the theory is simple, the more the points a team is projected to score, the more pass attempts and touchdowns for the team. Also, if the point spread is close in these high-scoring games, teams will keep passing to win. If a team is heavily favored, it is more likely to run the ball more to run out the clock. The ideas panned out but will have a heavy amount of regression.
Using all the Vegas lines going back to 2000, the projected number of plays per game ranged from 45 (2000-2001 Browns show up quite a bit) to 68 (2000-2001 Rams). But most of the estimates hover around 55. The number of pass attempts per game range from 48 to 61 percent.
So, using just the Vegas lines, the projected number of pass attempts is 27 to 39 per game with the average number about 35. For the first week, Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota have the highest projected pass attempts at 37.4 because it's supposed to be the highest scoring game at 52.5 total points and over/under line at even. Tyrod Taylor takes the bottom spot, with the Jets and Bills predicted to score only 42 points and the Bills expected to win by six.
Using my previously created rate projections, here are the quarterbacks ranked using this standard scoring system:
• Passing Yard: 0.04
• Passing TD: 4
• Turnover: -2
• Rushing Yards: 0.1
• Rushing TD: 6
| PLAYER | ATT | COMP | COMP% | PASS YDS | TD | INT | RUSHES | RUSH YDS | RUSH TD | FUM | TOTAL PTS |
| Aaron Rodgers | 26.5 | 36.3 | 72.9 | 269.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 19.7 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 19.6 |
| Russell Wilson | 23.5 | 35.9 | 65.5 | 278.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 31.3 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 21.1 |
| Drew Brees | 22.3 | 35.2 | 63.3 | 270.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 16.6 |
| Cam Newton | 26.3 | 35.8 | 73.3 | 257.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 30.8 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 19.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | 25.0 | 35.7 | 70.0 | 286.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 17.7 |
| Tom Brady | 28.5 | 35.9 | 79.5 | 274.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 17.3 |
| Matt Ryan | 28.3 | 36.1 | 78.2 | 306.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 7.4 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 19.2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 24.0 | 33.7 | 71.1 | 246.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 6.6 | 35.0 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 19.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 26.0 | 36.3 | 71.7 | 272.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 9.9 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 17.7 |
| Joe Flacco | 22.3 | 34.8 | 64.0 | 244.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 15.2 |
| Andy Dalton | 21.3 | 34.6 | 61.4 | 264.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 11.2 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 17.4 |
| Blake Bortles | 18.8 | 33.2 | 56.4 | 222.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 18.8 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 15.4 |
| Alex Smith | 21.5 | 34.7 | 61.9 | 258.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 19.2 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 18.2 |
| Carson Palmer | 23.5 | 35.9 | 65.5 | 259.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 15.8 |
| Sam Bradford | 25.8 | 35.7 | 72.1 | 264.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 16.8 |
| Derek Carr | 26.3 | 37.4 | 70.2 | 267.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 17.3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28.5 | 34.8 | 81.8 | 269.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 16.4 |
| Philip Rivers | 20.3 | 34.0 | 59.5 | 262.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 15.8 |
| Carson Wentz | 22.5 | 35.3 | 63.7 | 240.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 15.6 |
| Eli Manning | 22.3 | 35.2 | 63.3 | 250.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 15.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 22.8 | 35.4 | 64.2 | 250.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 11.9 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 16.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 26.3 | 37.4 | 70.2 | 277.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 23.5 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 19.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 28.3 | 36.1 | 78.2 | 276.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 17.2 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 19.0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 23.8 | 34.6 | 68.6 | 248.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 15.6 |
| Brian Hoyer | 22.3 | 35.2 | 63.3 | 256.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 15.9 |
| Josh McCown | 18.0 | 32.8 | 54.8 | 235.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 14.7 |
| Jay Cutler | 24.8 | 35.8 | 69.2 | 276.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 12.1 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 17.6 |
| Jared Goff | 22.5 | 35.3 | 63.7 | 237.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 8.1 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 14.9 |
| Tom Savage | 23.3 | 33.9 | 68.5 | 250.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 8.3 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 16.2 |
| Scott Tolzien | 25.5 | 35.8 | 71.3 | 268.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 9.2 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 17.4 |
| Mike Glennon | 22.3 | 35.2 | 63.3 | 263.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 10.2 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 17.0 |
That list is a little non-standard, especially with Tom Brady coming in at No. 17. As can be seen, a ton of regression with not much deliberation from the top and bottom quarterbacks. Even with the disjointed ranking, I had one major takeaway — the rushing yards some quarterbacks accumulate can make a significant difference in their value.
Overall, I was a little disappointed with the results. I expected better.
Now it's time to predict using the previous season's pass attempts per game. The concept behind these projections is that while teams can change coaches and players, pass happy quarterbacks stay pass happy.
For this projection, I used the player's previous season pass attempts per game and then regressed the value. Most of the results pass the eye test, especially for the 2016 regulars.
| PLAYER | ATT | COMP | COMP% | PASS YDS | TD | INT | RUSHES | RUSH YDS | RUSH TD | FUM | TOTAL PTS |
| Aaron Rodgers | 37.6 | 24.6 | 65.4 | 278.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 20.3 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 20.3 |
| Russell Wilson | 33.6 | 22.2 | 65.9 | 261.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 29.4 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 19.8 |
| Drew Brees | 40.1 | 27.3 | 68.1 | 308.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 18.9 |
| Cam Newton | 33.8 | 20.0 | 59.0 | 243.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 29.1 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 18.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | 36.8 | 24.9 | 67.5 | 295.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 18.3 |
| Tom Brady | 37.1 | 23.9 | 64.3 | 284.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 17.9 |
| Matt Ryan | 33.3 | 22.7 | 68.3 | 282.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 17.7 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 30.1 | 19.2 | 63.8 | 219.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 31.2 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 17.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 36.1 | 23.7 | 65.8 | 270.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 9.9 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 17.6 |
| Joe Flacco | 40.1 | 26.3 | 65.5 | 281.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 17.5 |
| Andy Dalton | 34.8 | 22.9 | 65.8 | 265.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 11.3 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 17.5 |
| Blake Bortles | 37.9 | 22.8 | 60.1 | 253.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 21.5 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 17.5 |
| Alex Smith | 32.8 | 21.9 | 66.6 | 244.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 18.1 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 17.2 |
| Carson Palmer | 38.4 | 24.0 | 62.4 | 278.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 17.0 |
| Sam Bradford | 36.0 | 24.8 | 69.0 | 266.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 17.0 |
| Derek Carr | 36.4 | 22.9 | 63.0 | 260.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 7.3 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 16.8 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 35.1 | 23.2 | 66.1 | 271.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 16.5 |
| Philip Rivers | 35.5 | 22.7 | 63.9 | 273.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 16.4 |
| Carson Wentz | 36.9 | 23.2 | 62.9 | 252.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 16.4 |
| Eli Manning | 36.8 | 23.5 | 63.8 | 262.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 16.1 |
| Jameis Winston | 35.1 | 21.2 | 60.3 | 248.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 11.8 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 16.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 30.8 | 19.1 | 61.9 | 228.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 19.3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 16.0 |
| Dak Prescott | 30.2 | 19.8 | 65.5 | 231.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 14.4 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 15.9 |
| Trevor Siemian | 34.4 | 21.1 | 61.3 | 247.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 15.5 |
| Brian Hoyer | 33.3 | 21.2 | 63.5 | 243.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 15.0 |
| Josh McCown | 33.1 | 20.1 | 60.6 | 237.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 14.9 |
| Jay Cutler | 28.8 | 18.6 | 64.6 | 222.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 14.2 |
| Jared Goff | 30.2 | 18.0 | 59.5 | 202.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 12.8 |
| Tom Savage | 26.4 | 16.8 | 63.8 | 195.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 12.6 |
| Scott Tolzien | 21.9 | 14.1 | 64.4 | 164.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 10.7 |
| Mike Glennon | 16.1 | 10.3 | 64.2 | 120.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 7.8 |
While some of the top values seemed regressed, the order seems right. Now, there is a huge issue with the bottom four or five guys. The Bears' Mike Glennon threw only 11 passes in two games last season. Even with some heavy regression, he is projected to only throw 16 passes in the first game. This value is way too low and I was forced to use the attempts projected in the Vegas line table.
Finally, I wrapped up by combining the values from the Vegas line and previous season average attempts. And I got hogwash. Simply, the Vegas line adds zero value at this level.
One issue on why the Vegas line may be better over a full season compared to the first week is that the odds makers in Vegas are trying to get a read on the teams also. They're less sure on how the dynamics of each game will work out.
I would gladly go with the previous season pass attempt projections except where it is clearly off. In those instances, I will use the Vegas line.
And to see how my projections hold up, I will compare them to the weekly projections created here at RotoWire. Here are the final point totals for comparison.
| PLAYER | VEGAS LINE | PREVIOUS PASS ATT | FINAL PROJECTION | ROTOWIRE PROJECTION | DIFF |
| Aaron Rodgers | 19.6 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 25.8 | -5.5 |
| Alex Smith | 18.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 14.4 | 2.8 |
| Andy Dalton | 17.4 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | -2.0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 21.8 | -5.2 |
| Blake Bortles | 15.4 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.4 | 1.1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 15.9 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 1.8 |
| Cam Newton | 19.6 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 22.8 | -4.3 |
| Carson Palmer | 15.8 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.5 | -0.5 |
| Carson Wentz | 15.6 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 17.3 | -0.9 |
| Dak Prescott | 19.0 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 20.0 | -4.2 |
| Derek Carr | 17.3 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 21.5 | -4.7 |
| Drew Brees | 16.6 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 24.1 | -5.2 |
| Eli Manning | 15.4 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 17.9 | -1.8 |
| Jameis Winston | 16.2 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 20.2 | -4.2 |
| Jared Goff | 14.9 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 14.1 | -1.3 |
| Jay Cutler | 17.6 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 17.3 | -3.1 |
| Joe Flacco | 15.2 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.6 | 0.9 |
| Josh McCown | 14.7 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 5.8 | 9.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 17.7 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 22.4 | -4.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 19.4 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 21.2 | -5.3 |
| Matt Ryan | 19.2 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 22.9 | -5.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 17.7 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 20.3 | -2.7 |
| Mike Glennon | 17.0 | 7.8 | 17.0 | 14.7 | 2.4 |
| Philip Rivers | 15.8 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 18.4 | -1.9 |
| Russell Wilson | 21.1 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 20.1 | -0.3 |
| Sam Bradford | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 16.5 | 0.5 |
| Scott Tolzien | 17.4 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 1.8 |
| Tom Brady | 17.3 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 26.2 | -8.3 |
| Tom Savage | 16.2 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 3.6 |
| Trevor Siemian | 15.6 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 5.2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 19.8 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 19.3 | -1.6 |
| Total | 531.8 | 503.7 | 513.0 | 556.4 | |
| Average | 17.2 | 16.2 | 16.5 | 17.9 |
Overall, my values are lower than our standard projections, but the values are a little on the high side consider recent average Week 1 quarterback production:
2012: 12.9
2013: 16.2
2014: 14.3
2015: 13.1
2016: 15.1
Now, the actual values may be a bit lower than the expected values if a quarterback or two got injured and did finish the game. Our standard projections have the weekly quarterback point total at 17.9 with my combo one at 16.5.
Now to determine which system is best, I am going to sum the squares of the expected minus the actual values after removing any quarterback who got injured or didn't play. Whichever system has the lowest total value will be the Week 1 winner.
Comparing the lists, many values are close but we disagree on several players. I have Josh McCown generating nine more points (14.9 vs. 5.8) and the standard RotoWire projections have Tom Brady (17.9 vs. 26.2) with eight more.
I'm done with quarterbacks for this week. Next week, I will add Week 1 pass attempts into the equations. Also, I wanted to start working on wide receiver targets, rookie projections and finally get to the pesky tight ends. Truthfully, I am ready for the season to begin to watch some real games instead of the practice games played this past month.
