This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
Creating these simple quarterback projections (The Zman's) ended up being a little harder than expected, but they're done. They are simple, non-context projections on how a non-rookie quarterback is expected to perform. While other factors will contribute to their production, these projections provide a great baseline for a quarterback's ability.
For the projections, I wanted to create a projection system similar to Marcels in which Tom Tango created for baseball players.
As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."
I went with the same approach with just a tad more detail in the weights and regression. The basic procedure was to take a three-year weighted sample, regress the data as needed and then add an aging factor. I did not project playing time in which I'll examine in a future article.
Overall, the final formulas came out as expected, heavy regressed. This aspect is always the hardest for owners to digest. With just 16 regular-season games, a big game or two can really boost a player's value and they will, on average, see their production drop the next season after a breakout season. Finally, for these projections, I used data from 1990 to 2016 from ArmChair Analysis.
Additionally, I found a few attributes which had no year-to-year correlation, like fumbles. For these stats, I just used the 2016 league average value. For all the regressions amounts, I regressed to just the 2016 values. I may change this value to
For the projections, I wanted to create a projection system similar to Marcels in which Tom Tango created for baseball players.
As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."
I went with the same approach with just a tad more detail in the weights and regression. The basic procedure was to take a three-year weighted sample, regress the data as needed and then add an aging factor. I did not project playing time in which I'll examine in a future article.
Overall, the final formulas came out as expected, heavy regressed. This aspect is always the hardest for owners to digest. With just 16 regular-season games, a big game or two can really boost a player's value and they will, on average, see their production drop the next season after a breakout season. Finally, for these projections, I used data from 1990 to 2016 from ArmChair Analysis.
Additionally, I found a few attributes which had no year-to-year correlation, like fumbles. For these stats, I just used the 2016 league average value. For all the regressions amounts, I regressed to just the 2016 values. I may change this value to some yearly weighted average at future date.
Besides the regression amounts, I see my projections getting tweaked in other ways. I will like to see if the projections change by using the most recent seasons. Also, how do the quarterbacks expected supporting cast affect the projection?
Here is a quick walk through of the quarterback stats I projected:
• Completion percentage: Three-year weighted average with the last season being weighted heavily. One of the least regressed values.
• Yards per completion: One-year weighted average with lots of regression.
• Touchdowns per completion: Three-year weighted average with last season getting half the weight. Lots and lots of regression. I expect these stats to get the most ire.
• Interceptions per pass attempt: Three-year evenly weighted average and with lots of regression.
• Fumbles per pass attempt: League average used. Quarterbacks average two fumbles lost per team, so impossible to project with such a small sample.
• Rushing attempt per pass attempt: Standard three-year weighted average with the least regression of any stat. I'm not sure I like using a ratio (attempt/attempt) but I am going to use it for now.
• Rushing yards per rush attempt: Three-year evenly weighted average with some regression.
• Touchdowns per rush attempt: League average used. There was no year-to-year correlation with so few rushing touchdowns.
And now for the projections most people jumped ahead to. If anyone threw a single pass last season, they are included in the list for reference. No rookies are included and I will look at all rookie projections at a later date.
| PLAYER | AGE | COMP% | YARDS/COMP | TD/COMP | INT/PA | FUM/PA | RA/PA | RY/RA | TD/RA |
| A.Dalton | 30 | 65.8% | 11.6 | 0.071 | 0.019 | 0 | 10.8% | 3 | 0.043 |
| A.Luck | 28 | 63.4% | 11.9 | 0.077 | 0.022 | 0 | 10.7% | 4.8 | 0.043 |
| A.Rodgers | 34 | 65.4% | 11.3 | 0.079 | 0.015 | 0 | 10.0% | 5.4 | 0.043 |
| A.Smith | 33 | 66.6% | 11.2 | 0.070 | 0.016 | 0 | 12.0% | 4.6 | 0.043 |
| B.Bortles | 25 | 60.1% | 11.1 | 0.072 | 0.024 | 0 | 9.5% | 6 | 0.043 |
| B.Gabbert | 28 | 62.7% | 11.5 | 0.073 | 0.021 | 0 | 12.6% | 4.6 | 0.043 |
| B.Hoyer | 32 | 63.5% | 11.5 | 0.072 | 0.019 | 0 | 5.9% | 2.2 | 0.043 |
| B.Hundley | 24 | 61.8% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.022 | 0 | 8.7% | 3.7 | 0.043 |
| B.Osweiler | 27 | 61.6% | 10.9 | 0.071 | 0.021 | 0 | 8.1% | 3.3 | 0.043 |
| B.Petty | 26 | 61.9% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.022 | 0 | 7.1% | 3.8 | 0.043 |
| B.Roethlisberger | 35 | 66.1% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.022 | 0 | 5.1% | 1.8 | 0.043 |
| C.Cook | 24 | 60.7% | 11.6 | 0.074 | 0.023 | 0 | 7.0% | 3.8 | 0.043 |
| C.Daniel | 31 | 64.6% | 11.8 | 0.074 | 0.019 | 0 | 9.0% | 3.2 | 0.043 |
| C.Henne | 32 | 64.0% | 11.8 | 0.074 | 0.019 | 0 | 7.9% | 3.9 | 0.043 |
| C.Jones | 25 | 63.1% | 11.8 | 0.074 | 0.021 | 0 | 8.0% | 3.6 | 0.043 |
| C.Kaepernick | 30 | 62.3% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.017 | 0 | 16.7% | 5.8 | 0.043 |
| C.Keenum | 29 | 63.2% | 11.5 | 0.071 | 0.020 | 0 | 8.1% | 2.7 | 0.043 |
| C.Kessler | 24 | 63.8% | 11.5 | 0.073 | 0.020 | 0 | 7.4% | 3.1 | 0.043 |
| C.Newton | 28 | 59.0% | 12.2 | 0.075 | 0.021 | 0 | 19.5% | 4.4 | 0.043 |
| C.Palmer | 38 | 62.4% | 11.6 | 0.074 | 0.022 | 0 | 4.8% | 2.4 | 0.043 |
| C.Wentz | 25 | 62.9% | 10.8 | 0.070 | 0.021 | 0 | 8.1% | 3.3 | 0.043 |
| C.Whitehurst | 35 | 62.7% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.020 | 0 | 8.5% | 3.7 | 0.043 |
| D.Anderson | 34 | 65.2% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.021 | 0 | 9.0% | 2.7 | 0.043 |
| D.Brees | 38 | 68.1% | 11.3 | 0.074 | 0.023 | 0 | 4.8% | 1.8 | 0.043 |
| D.Carr | 26 | 63.0% | 11.4 | 0.074 | 0.018 | 0 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.043 |
| D.Fales | 27 | 63.7% | 11.8 | 0.074 | 0.020 | 0 | 8.1% | 3.7 | 0.043 |
| D.Prescott | 24 | 65.5% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.018 | 0 | 10.8% | 4.4 | 0.043 |
| D.Stanton | 33 | 60.6% | 11.7 | 0.073 | 0.021 | 0 | 10.1% | 2 | 0.043 |
| E.Manning | 36 | 63.8% | 11.2 | 0.074 | 0.022 | 0 | 4.3% | 2.2 | 0.043 |
| E.Manuel | 27 | 62.3% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.020 | 0 | 11.2% | 3.5 | 0.043 |
| G.Smith | 27 | 63.2% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.022 | 0 | 10.5% | 4.2 | 0.043 |
| J.Brissett | 25 | 63.2% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.020 | 0 | 10.5% | 4.3 | 0.043 |
| J.Cutler | 34 | 64.6% | 12 | 0.073 | 0.023 | 0 | 7.5% | 4.5 | 0.043 |
| J.Flacco | 32 | 65.5% | 10.7 | 0.070 | 0.020 | 0 | 5.3% | 2.3 | 0.043 |
| J.Garoppolo | 26 | 64.3% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.019 | 0 | 10.8% | 2.1 | 0.043 |
| J.Goff | 23 | 59.5% | 11.3 | 0.073 | 0.023 | 0 | 6.9% | 3.3 | 0.043 |
| J.McCown | 38 | 60.6% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.025 | 0 | 7.2% | 4.3 | 0.043 |
| J.Webb | 31 | 64.5% | 11.8 | 0.074 | 0.019 | 0 | 8.2% | 3.6 | 0.043 |
| J.Winston | 23 | 60.3% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.025 | 0 | 9.6% | 3.5 | 0.043 |
| K.Clemens | 34 | 64.2% | 11.8 | 0.074 | 0.020 | 0 | 8.5% | 3.3 | 0.043 |
| K.Cousins | 29 | 67.5% | 11.9 | 0.072 | 0.019 | 0 | 6.1% | 2.7 | 0.043 |
| K.Hogan | 25 | 62.7% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.021 | 0 | 9.3% | 6 | 0.043 |
| L.Jones | 28 | 63.6% | 11.6 | 0.074 | 0.021 | 0 | 8.0% | 2.3 | 0.043 |
| M.Barkley | 27 | 62.7% | 11.9 | 0.073 | 0.024 | 0 | 6.9% | 2.8 | 0.043 |
| M.Cassel | 35 | 62.7% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.023 | 0 | 8.2% | 3.6 | 0.043 |
| M.Glennon | 28 | 64.2% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.020 | 0 | 7.2% | 4 | 0.043 |
| M.Mariota | 24 | 61.9% | 12 | 0.075 | 0.021 | 0 | 10.7% | 5.9 | 0.043 |
| M.McGloin | 28 | 64.2% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.020 | 0 | 8.0% | 3.2 | 0.043 |
| M.Moore | 33 | 65.8% | 11.8 | 0.075 | 0.020 | 0 | 7.4% | 2.9 | 0.043 |
| M.Ryan | 32 | 68.3% | 12.4 | 0.075 | 0.018 | 0 | 6.6% | 3.1 | 0.043 |
| M.Sanchez | 31 | 64.6% | 11.7 | 0.073 | 0.023 | 0 | 9.0% | 2.9 | 0.043 |
| M.Schaub | 36 | 63.7% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.024 | 0 | 7.9% | 3.3 | 0.043 |
| M.Stafford | 29 | 65.8% | 11.4 | 0.072 | 0.018 | 0 | 7.4% | 3.7 | 0.043 |
| N.Foles | 28 | 62.4% | 11.7 | 0.072 | 0.021 | 0 | 6.6% | 2.7 | 0.043 |
| P.Lynch | 23 | 61.7% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.022 | 0 | 9.0% | 3.3 | 0.043 |
| P.Rivers | 36 | 63.9% | 12.1 | 0.075 | 0.025 | 0 | 4.6% | 2.7 | 0.043 |
| R.Fitzpatrick | 35 | 61.1% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.025 | 0 | 10.3% | 3.9 | 0.043 |
| R.Griffin | 27 | 63.6% | 11.5 | 0.071 | 0.020 | 0 | 12.7% | 4.8 | 0.043 |
| R.Mallett | 29 | 62.3% | 11.7 | 0.073 | 0.020 | 0 | 6.8% | 2.5 | 0.043 |
| R.Tannehill | 29 | 65.9% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.019 | 0 | 8.2% | 4.5 | 0.043 |
| R.Wilson | 29 | 65.9% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.017 | 0 | 16.7% | 5.2 | 0.043 |
| S.Bradford | 30 | 69.0% | 10.7 | 0.070 | 0.017 | 0 | 5.5% | 2.6 | 0.043 |
| S.Hill | 37 | 62.7% | 11.8 | 0.073 | 0.023 | 0 | 8.1% | 2.4 | 0.043 |
| S.Mannion | 25 | 63.3% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.021 | 0 | 8.0% | 3.6 | 0.043 |
| S.Tolzien | 30 | 64.4% | 11.6 | 0.073 | 0.020 | 0 | 9.3% | 2.8 | 0.043 |
| T.Boykin | 24 | 63.2% | 11.7 | 0.074 | 0.022 | 0 | 9.5% | 2.9 | 0.043 |
| T.Brady | 40 | 64.3% | 11.9 | 0.077 | 0.020 | 0 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.043 |
| T.Romo | 37 | 65.7% | 11.7 | 0.076 | 0.024 | 0 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.043 |
| T.Savage | 27 | 63.8% | 11.6 | 0.072 | 0.019 | 0 | 8.6% | 2.8 | 0.043 |
| T.Siemian | 25 | 61.3% | 11.7 | 0.072 | 0.020 | 0 | 7.2% | 2.7 | 0.043 |
| T.Taylor | 28 | 63.8% | 11.4 | 0.073 | 0.017 | 0 | 19.6% | 5.3 | 0.043 |
To collect the expected stats for a week or season, an owner just needs to get an estimated number of pass attempts. I will go ahead and create some full-season estimates by using the average number of passes thrown per team in 2016 (572) for each of the quarterbacks. Additionally, I will rank them by fantasy value using the following values:
• Passing yard: 0.04 points
• Passing touchdown: 4 points
• Rushing yard: 0.1 points
• Rushing touchdown: 6 points
• Turnover: -2 points
| PLAYER | ATTEMPTS | PASS YDS | PASS TD | INT | FUM | RUSH YDS | RUSH TD | FANTASY POINTS |
| R.Wilson | 571 | 4432 | 27.5 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 499 | 4.1 | 336 |
| T.Taylor | 571 | 4170 | 26.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 592 | 4.8 | 335 |
| C.Kaepernick | 571 | 4129 | 25.9 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 554 | 4.1 | 322 |
| C.Newton | 571 | 4111 | 25.3 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 491 | 4.8 | 313 |
| A.Rodgers | 571 | 4233 | 29.3 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 309 | 2.5 | 308 |
| M.Ryan | 571 | 4840 | 29.1 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 117 | 1.6 | 303 |
| D.Prescott | 571 | 4377 | 27.5 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 272 | 2.7 | 300 |
| A.Smith | 571 | 4245 | 26.5 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 315 | 3.0 | 299 |
| A.Luck | 571 | 4318 | 27.9 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 293 | 2.6 | 297 |
| M.Mariota | 571 | 4233 | 26.7 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 358 | 2.6 | 296 |
| R.Griffin | 571 | 4165 | 25.8 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 347 | 3.1 | 293 |
| B.Gabbert | 571 | 4098 | 26.0 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 327 | 3.1 | 288 |
| R.Tannehill | 571 | 4362 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 209 | 2.0 | 288 |
| A.Dalton | 571 | 4360 | 26.8 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 185 | 2.7 | 287 |
| J.Brissett | 571 | 4241 | 26.3 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 256 | 2.6 | 286 |
| K.Hogan | 571 | 4161 | 26.3 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 321 | 2.3 | 286 |
| G.Smith | 571 | 4270 | 26.4 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 251 | 2.6 | 285 |
| K.Cousins | 571 | 4576 | 27.9 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 94 | 1.5 | 284 |
| C.Daniel | 571 | 4343 | 27.2 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 164 | 2.2 | 283 |
| J.Webb | 571 | 4335 | 27.2 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 170 | 2.0 | 282 |
| M.Moore | 571 | 4427 | 28.0 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 123 | 1.8 | 282 |
| J.Cutler | 571 | 4412 | 26.8 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 193 | 1.8 | 281 |
| J.Garoppolo | 571 | 4311 | 27.1 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 129 | 2.7 | 281 |
| D.Anderson | 571 | 4399 | 27.3 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 136 | 2.2 | 281 |
| E.Manuel | 571 | 4188 | 26.0 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 221 | 2.8 | 280 |
| C.Henne | 571 | 4299 | 26.9 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 174 | 2.0 | 280 |
| K.Clemens | 571 | 4315 | 27.1 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 161 | 2.1 | 279 |
| M.Stafford | 571 | 4283 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 156 | 1.8 | 279 |
| S.Tolzien | 571 | 4281 | 27.0 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 147 | 2.3 | 278 |
| D.Fales | 571 | 4275 | 26.8 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 170 | 2.0 | 278 |
| T.Romo (retired) | 571 | 4410 | 28.4 | 13.5 | 3.6 | 113 | 1.6 | 277 |
| M.Glennon | 571 | 4273 | 27.1 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 166 | 1.8 | 277 |
| M.Sanchez | 571 | 4318 | 27.0 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 148 | 2.2 | 276 |
| T.Brady | 571 | 4376 | 28.1 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 78 | 1.6 | 275 |
| M.McGloin | 571 | 4271 | 26.9 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 144 | 2.0 | 275 |
| C.Whitehurst | 571 | 4228 | 26.3 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 178 | 2.1 | 274 |
| C.Jones | 571 | 4260 | 26.5 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 166 | 2.0 | 274 |
| T.Boykin | 571 | 4233 | 26.6 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 155 | 2.3 | 273 |
| S.Mannion | 571 | 4239 | 26.6 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 166 | 2.0 | 273 |
| T.Savage | 571 | 4220 | 26.4 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 139 | 2.1 | 272 |
| M.Schaub | 571 | 4286 | 26.7 | 13.5 | 3.6 | 148 | 1.9 | 271 |
| D.Brees | 571 | 4400 | 28.7 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 50 | 1.2 | 270 |
| R.Fitzpatrick | 571 | 4095 | 25.7 | 14.0 | 3.6 | 229 | 2.5 | 269 |
| B.Roethlisberger | 571 | 4416 | 27.9 | 12.4 | 3.6 | 52 | 1.3 | 269 |
| B.Hundley | 571 | 4145 | 26.0 | 12.4 | 3.6 | 183 | 2.1 | 269 |
| S.Bradford | 571 | 4231 | 27.5 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 81 | 1.4 | 269 |
| C.Kessler | 571 | 4192 | 26.4 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 132 | 1.8 | 268 |
| L.Jones | 571 | 4215 | 26.8 | 12.2 | 3.6 | 107 | 2.0 | 267 |
| M.Cassel | 571 | 4154 | 26.1 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 172 | 2.0 | 266 |
| P.Lynch | 571 | 4080 | 25.8 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 168 | 2.2 | 265 |
| P.Rivers | 571 | 4407 | 27.4 | 14.0 | 3.6 | 70 | 1.1 | 265 |
| D.Carr | 571 | 4087 | 26.6 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 115 | 1.6 | 264 |
| C.Keenum | 571 | 4166 | 25.8 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 123 | 2.0 | 264 |
| B.Bortles | 571 | 3825 | 24.7 | 13.7 | 3.6 | 324 | 2.3 | 264 |
| S.Hill | 571 | 4228 | 26.1 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 112 | 2.0 | 263 |
| M.Barkley | 571 | 4265 | 26.2 | 14.0 | 3.6 | 109 | 1.7 | 261 |
| J.Winston | 571 | 4040 | 25.5 | 14.2 | 3.6 | 192 | 2.4 | 261 |
| B.Petty | 571 | 4092 | 25.8 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 156 | 1.8 | 260 |
| R.Mallett | 571 | 4174 | 25.8 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 98 | 1.7 | 260 |
| N.Foles | 571 | 4180 | 25.8 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 102 | 1.6 | 260 |
| D.Stanton | 571 | 4045 | 25.4 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 117 | 2.5 | 258 |
| B.Hoyer | 571 | 4168 | 26.0 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 74 | 1.4 | 257 |
| T.Siemian | 571 | 4100 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 112 | 1.8 | 257 |
| J.McCown | 571 | 4094 | 25.2 | 14.6 | 3.6 | 177 | 1.8 | 257 |
| C.Cook | 571 | 4024 | 25.5 | 13.0 | 3.6 | 153 | 1.7 | 255 |
| C.Wentz | 571 | 3895 | 25.1 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 155 | 2.0 | 253 |
| C.Palmer | 571 | 4137 | 26.4 | 12.8 | 3.6 | 66 | 1.2 | 252 |
| J.Flacco | 571 | 4013 | 26.0 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 71 | 1.3 | 249 |
| E.Manning | 571 | 4067 | 26.9 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 54 | 1.0 | 249 |
| B.Osweiler | 571 | 3833 | 25.0 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 152 | 2.0 | 249 |
| J.Goff | 571 | 3836 | 24.6 | 13.3 | 3.6 | 131 | 1.7 | 241 |
The rushing yards really push up the top four, but none will see the 571 attempts, especially Kaepernick. The name that really sticks out is Rodgers coming in at No. 5. The industry has him as a nearly unanimous pick as the top quarterback. Here's where the consensus and my projections disagree.
Rodgers' 2015 60.7 percent completion rate has my projected rate lower than might be expected. Only 571 pass attempts are assumed after throwing 610 last season. If he hits 610 again, his touchdowns increase by a couple.
Touchdown pass regression is pretty strong. From my data set, nine quarterbacks threw 38 to 42 touchdown passes in a season. The next season they averaged 22.6 touchdowns (22 median) with an average drop of 16.6 (median 20). While some quarterbacks got hurt leading to the drop, none improved and the smallest drop was Tom Brady in 2011 to 2012 going from 39 to 35. A 35 touchdown total is probably a little ambitious. In one magazine, I saw his total at 41. No sane person can predict a jump.
Finally, I went ahead and ran projections for previous seasons so people can compare the projections.
That's it for now. For my next article, I will either run wide receiver projections or try to come up with a projected pass attempt number (which will adjust once the season starts). For now, look at the data and let me know where my calculations seem off. It will be interesting to see how they hold up compared to other projections this season.
