This article is part of our The Stats Room series.
These projections have no team context information. They are bare bones for now. They were created in the image of Marcels in which Tom Tango did baseball players.
As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."
I went with the same approach with just a tad more detail in the weights and regression. The basic procedure was to take a three-year weighted sample, regress the data as needed and then add an aging factor. I did not project playing time, which I'll discuss later.
Compared to the quarterbacks (and running backs, which I've started), the wide receiver stats are not regressed as much. There is more distinction between the good and bad wide receivers. Their job is to just to catch the ball and run. They are less reliant on those around them. That said, here are the categories I projected:
Note: I stayed away from lumping tight ends with wide receivers to see if there are any major differences. I will eventually
These projections have no team context information. They are bare bones for now. They were created in the image of Marcels in which Tom Tango did baseball players.
As Tom describes it, "... uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey."
I went with the same approach with just a tad more detail in the weights and regression. The basic procedure was to take a three-year weighted sample, regress the data as needed and then add an aging factor. I did not project playing time, which I'll discuss later.
Compared to the quarterbacks (and running backs, which I've started), the wide receiver stats are not regressed as much. There is more distinction between the good and bad wide receivers. Their job is to just to catch the ball and run. They are less reliant on those around them. That said, here are the categories I projected:
Note: I stayed away from lumping tight ends with wide receivers to see if there are any major differences. I will eventually create tight end projections.
Receptions per Target: A three-year weight average is used with the most recent season getting almost 60 percent of the projection. It was barely regressed and stabilized at 10 targets. Additionally, its aging curve peaks at age 25 and then begins its decline.
Yards per Reception: A three-year weight average is used with the most recent season only getting weighted at ~45 percent. This aging curve is more of a downward plunge with receivers losing about a third of a yard per catch per season. Again, little regression is used with the value stabilizing after just 12 catches.
Touchdowns per Reception: A three-year weight average is used with each of the last three seasons getting even weight. The aging curve is a downward slope from with no upward trend. Also, little regression was added with the stat stabilizing quickly.
I was worried this stat was just a proxy for yards per reception. The more yards a receiver could run, the more touchdowns they got. To see if this was true, I compared the yards per reception to touchdowns per reception and ended up with an r-squared of 0.24. There is some correlation but some guys seem to find the end zone while other can't. At some future date, I do want to compare red-zone production to see if it a repeatable skill.
Fumbles per reception: A three-year weight average is used with the most recent season only getting weighted at more than 60 percent. Also, this value is regressed an insane amount, more than 100 receptions. While I didn't just use the league average, I probably could have.
With the descriptions out of the way, here are the projections. I included any receiver who caught one pass in 2016 in the projections (rookies later).
Note: I used the database designation for positions (e.g. wide receiver, running back, etc). Some players like Ty Montgomery got grouped in here with relievers.
| PLAYER | AGE | CATCH% | Y/REC | TD/REC | FUM/REC |
| A.J. Green | 29 | 65.7 | 14.0 | 8.2 | 0.97 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 24 | 55.4 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.73 |
| Adam Humphries | 24 | 67.6 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 0.84 |
| Adam Thielen | 27 | 73.6 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.23 |
| Albert Wilson | 25 | 61.8 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 0.90 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 29 | 62.5 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 1.07 |
| Alex Erickson | 25 | 68.5 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.15 |
| Allen Hurns | 26 | 55.0 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 1.03 |
| Allen Robinson | 24 | 53.2 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 0.69 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 27 | 58.7 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 0.76 |
| Amari Cooper | 23 | 61.9 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 0.87 |
| Andre Holmes | 29 | 53.4 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 1.02 |
| Andre Johnson | 36 | 48.7 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 1.16 |
| Andre Roberts | 29 | 56.6 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.72 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 31 | 61.1 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.11 |
| Anquan Boldin | 37 | 60.6 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 0.88 |
| Antonio Brown | 29 | 69.9 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 0.89 |
| Arrelious Benn | 29 | 59.2 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 1.15 |
| Bennie Fowler | 26 | 56.6 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.06 |
| Bradley Marquez | 25 | 59.5 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.13 |
| Bralon Addison | 24 | 66.7 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 1.79 |
| Brandin Cooks | 24 | 68.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 0.67 |
| Brandon Coleman | 25 | 66.8 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 0.95 |
| Brandon LaFell | 31 | 58.6 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 0.81 |
| Brandon Marshall | 33 | 52.7 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 1.08 |
| Brandon Tate | 30 | 63.3 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1.20 |
| Braxton Miller | 25 | 58.9 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 1.09 |
| Brenton Bersin | 27 | 62.9 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.50 |
| Breshad Perriman | 24 | 54.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 0.99 |
| Brian Quick | 28 | 53.8 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 0.91 |
| Brice Butler | 27 | 55.2 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 1.03 |
| Brittan Golden | 29 | 62.0 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 1.71 |
| Bryan Walters | 30 | 68.8 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.44 |
| Bryce Treggs | 23 | 48.8 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.17 |
| Cameron Meredith | 25 | 69.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.68 |
| Cecil Shorts | 30 | 51.7 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 1.27 |
| Charles Johnson | 28 | 58.5 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.01 |
| Charone Peake | 25 | 58.9 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.07 |
| Chester Rogers | 23 | 59.7 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.07 |
| Chris Conley | 25 | 63.9 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.89 |
| Chris Harper | 24 | 62.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.38 |
| Chris Hogan | 29 | 66.4 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 1.35 |
| Chris Moore | 24 | 55.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.14 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 27 | 62.1 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 1.05 |
| Cody Core | 23 | 64.4 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.08 |
| Cody Latimer | 25 | 60.3 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 1.10 |
| Cole Beasley | 28 | 74.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 1.19 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 26 | 70.7 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.17 |
| Corey Brown | 26 | 56.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 0.99 |
| Corey Coleman | 23 | 50.0 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 0.99 |
| Damiere Byrd | 24 | 66.7 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Daniel Braverman | 24 | 58.1 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.19 |
| Danny Amendola | 32 | 71.2 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 1.45 |
| Darren Waller | 25 | 60.4 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 1.12 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 30 | 49.3 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 1.15 |
| Davante Adams | 25 | 61.8 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 1.08 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 24 | 71.4 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.34 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 25 | 56.9 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 0.68 |
| DeAndre Smelter | 26 | 66.7 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Demarcus Ayers | 23 | 61.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 1.13 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 23 | 64.4 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.19 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 30 | 61.8 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 1.53 |
| Deonte Thompson | 28 | 63.2 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 1.58 |
| DeSean Jackson | 31 | 57.6 | 16.7 | 8.6 | 1.00 |
| DeVante Parker | 24 | 63.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 0.82 |
| Devin Funchess | 23 | 47.7 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 1.21 |
| Devin Hester | 35 | 60.1 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.83 |
| Devin Smith | 25 | 49.5 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 1.44 |
| Devin Street | 26 | 52.2 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 1.45 |
| Dez Bryant | 29 | 55.7 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 1.17 |
| Dezmin Lewis | 25 | 61.3 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.19 |
| Donte Moncrief | 24 | 59.9 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 0.84 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 28 | 60.9 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 1.01 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 24 | 52.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 0.90 |
| Doug Baldwin | 29 | 74.5 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 0.64 |
| Dwayne Harris | 30 | 64.1 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 1.77 |
| Eddie Royal | 31 | 72.1 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 0.94 |
| Eli Rogers | 25 | 72.7 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.31 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 30 | 59.7 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 0.99 |
| Eric Decker | 30 | 59.3 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 1.09 |
| Eric Weems | 32 | 66.6 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 1.18 |
| Freddie Martino | 26 | 68.0 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 1.13 |
| Geremy Davis | 25 | 58.9 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 1.18 |
| Geronimo Allison | 23 | 60.4 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 1.08 |
| Golden Tate | 29 | 68.9 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.10 |
| Greg Salas | 29 | 59.7 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 1.14 |
| Griff Whalen | 27 | 66.9 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.76 |
| Harry Douglas | 33 | 58.7 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.20 |
| Isaac Fruechte | 26 | 61.3 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.19 |
| Isaiah Burse | 26 | 52.3 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.28 |
| J.D. McKissic | 24 | 66.9 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 1.17 |
| J.J. Nelson | 25 | 50.3 | 15.1 | 10.4 | 1.68 |
| Jaelen Strong | 23 | 61.1 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 1.05 |
| Jakeem Grant | 25 | 61.3 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.80 |
| Jalin Marshall | 22 | 64.5 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 2.22 |
| James Wright | 26 | 64.4 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.10 |
| Jamison Crowder | 24 | 70.8 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 1.32 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 27 | 56.5 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.13 |
| Jarius Wright | 28 | 69.4 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 1.23 |
| Jaron Brown | 27 | 54.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 1.05 |
| Jarvis Landry | 25 | 71.5 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.40 |
| Je'Ron Hamm | 25 | 62.3 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.18 |
| Jeff Janis | 26 | 57.3 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 1.09 |
| Jeremy Butler | 26 | 70.5 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 1.08 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 29 | 57.4 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.22 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 29 | 63.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 0.92 |
| Jeremy Ross | 29 | 69.5 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.12 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 27 | 56.3 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 0.83 |
| John Brown | 27 | 58.8 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 1.00 |
| Johnny Holton | 26 | 59.5 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 1.78 |
| Jordan Matthews | 25 | 65.9 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 0.85 |
| Jordan Norwood | 31 | 61.3 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 2.51 |
| Jordan Payton | 24 | 60.2 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Jordan Taylor | 25 | 65.3 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 1.64 |
| Jordy Nelson | 32 | 63.2 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 1.07 |
| Josh Bellamy | 28 | 55.7 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 1.01 |
| Josh Doctson | 25 | 57.1 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 1.18 |
| Josh Huff | 26 | 67.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 1.08 |
| Julian Edelman | 31 | 63.4 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.40 |
| Julio Jones | 28 | 67.1 | 14.5 | 6.3 | 0.75 |
| Justin Hardy | 26 | 65.7 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 1.00 |
| Justin Hunter | 26 | 55.6 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 1.03 |
| Kalif Raymond | 23 | 57.9 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.80 |
| Kamar Aiken | 28 | 61.4 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 1.05 |
| Kasen Williams | 25 | 62.4 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.19 |
| Keenan Allen | 25 | 72.3 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.28 |
| Keith Mumphery | 25 | 60.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.07 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 26 | 55.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 1.30 |
| Kendall Wright | 28 | 64.9 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 0.96 |
| Kenny Britt | 29 | 59.8 | 14.5 | 6.6 | 1.15 |
| Kenny Stills | 25 | 56.0 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 0.85 |
| Keshawn Martin | 27 | 63.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 1.94 |
| Kevin White | 25 | 57.8 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.07 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 22 | 59.7 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 34 | 68.2 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 1.22 |
| Leonte Carroo | 23 | 61.1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 1.17 |
| Logan Paulsen | 30 | 54.9 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 1.24 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 25 | 71.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.03 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 25 | 67.1 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 0.96 |
| Marc Mariani | 30 | 65.3 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 1.40 |
| Mario Alford | 25 | 65.8 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 1.19 |
| Markus Wheaton | 26 | 59.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 0.99 |
| Marqise Lee | 26 | 60.1 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.23 |
| Marquess Wilson | 25 | 58.9 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.03 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 27 | 48.1 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 1.01 |
| Marvin Jones | 27 | 58.8 | 13.8 | 6.0 | 0.77 |
| Matthew Slater | 32 | 57.2 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.80 |
| Maurice Harris | 25 | 66.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.13 |
| Michael Campanaro | 26 | 67.2 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.16 |
| Michael Crabtree | 30 | 61.3 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 0.64 |
| Michael Floyd | 28 | 53.6 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 0.89 |
| Michael Thomas | 24 | 76.0 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 1.54 |
| Michael Thomas | 24 | 54.5 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 1.77 |
| Mike Evans | 24 | 56.5 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 0.64 |
| Mike Wallace | 31 | 59.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 0.79 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 28 | 70.1 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 1.17 |
| Nelson Agholor | 24 | 55.5 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.85 |
| Nick Williams | 27 | 67.9 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 1.10 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 25 | 63.0 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 0.95 |
| Paul McRoberts | 25 | 66.8 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Paul Richardson | 25 | 63.6 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.01 |
| Paul Turner | 24 | 65.2 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.13 |
| Percy Harvin | 29 | 63.9 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.15 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 22 | 67.9 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.10 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 24 | 56.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.19 |
| Pierre Garcon | 31 | 67.0 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 0.68 |
| Quan Bray | 24 | 66.9 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 1.17 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 25 | 56.7 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 0.84 |
| Quinton Patton | 27 | 59.1 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 0.97 |
| Randall Cobb | 27 | 69.8 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 0.76 |
| Rashad Greene | 25 | 61.1 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 1.66 |
| Rashad Ross | 27 | 66.4 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 1.15 |
| Rashard Higgins | 23 | 59.1 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.15 |
| Ricardo Louis | 23 | 55.6 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.07 |
| Rishard Matthews | 28 | 63.6 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 1.17 |
| Robby Anderson | 24 | 57.1 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.43 |
| Robert Woods | 25 | 65.6 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.05 |
| Rod Streater | 29 | 66.8 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 1.06 |
| Roger Lewis | 24 | 50.9 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 1.14 |
| Russell Shepard | 27 | 58.6 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 1.03 |
| Ryan Grant | 27 | 55.0 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 1.05 |
| Sammie Coates | 24 | 49.6 | 15.2 | 6.6 | 1.04 |
| Sammy Watkins | 24 | 58.8 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 0.91 |
| Seth DeValve | 24 | 70.6 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 1.12 |
| Seth Roberts | 26 | 55.0 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 0.90 |
| Shane Wynn | 25 | 60.3 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Stefon Diggs | 24 | 72.1 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 0.71 |
| Sterling Shepard | 23 | 63.5 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 0.85 |
| Steve Smith | 38 | 58.2 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 0.78 |
| TJ Jones | 25 | 52.3 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 1.40 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 23 | 53.2 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 0.95 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 24 | 67.3 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 1.13 |
| Tavarres King | 27 | 60.0 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 1.15 |
| Tavon Austin | 26 | 59.4 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 1.56 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 26 | 65.4 | 13.6 | 6.0 | 1.07 |
| Ted Ginn | 32 | 53.1 | 13.6 | 10.4 | 1.64 |
| Terrance Williams | 28 | 65.2 | 14.1 | 10.6 | 1.23 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 28 | 55.8 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 0.81 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 25 | 65.0 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.14 |
| Tony Lippett | 25 | 64.7 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.19 |
| Tony Washington | 27 | 66.6 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.18 |
| Torrey Smith | 28 | 50.7 | 14.5 | 14.4 | 0.94 |
| Travis Benjamin | 28 | 59.4 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 2.40 |
| Trevor Davis | 24 | 58.8 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 1.77 |
| Trey Burton | 26 | 64.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 0.96 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 28 | 58.8 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 0.70 |
| Ty Montgomery | 24 | 77.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.32 |
| Tyler Boyd | 23 | 67.4 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 1.35 |
| Tyler Lockett | 25 | 67.4 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 1.06 |
| Tyreek Hill | 23 | 73.1 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 1.31 |
| Tyrell Williams | 25 | 59.8 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 0.83 |
| Victor Cruz | 31 | 56.6 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.41 |
| Vince Mayle | 26 | 62.9 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 1.19 |
| Vincent Jackson | 34 | 49.3 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 1.02 |
| Walter Powell | 26 | 60.6 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.18 |
| Wendall Williams | 27 | 62.9 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.16 |
| Will Fuller | 23 | 55.4 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 0.90 |
| Willie Snead | 25 | 70.2 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.09 |
The key to the preceding table is matching up the talented wideouts with potential targets.
Here the receivers ranked as if they each were to get 150 targets this season. I used the following non-PPR scoring to rank them.
• Passing yard: 0.04 points
• Passing touchdown: 4 points
• Rushing yard: 0.1 points
• Rushing touchdown: 6 points
• Turnover: -2 points
| PLAYER | TARGETS | REC | YARDS | TD | FUM | PTS (NON-PPR) |
| Terrance Williams | 150 | 97.8 | 1375 | 10.4 | 1.2 | 198 |
| Doug Baldwin | 150 | 111.8 | 1344 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 194 |
| Jordy Nelson | 150 | 94.8 | 1234 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 190 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 150 | 94.4 | 1269 | 10.4 | 0.9 | 187 |
| DeSean Jackson | 150 | 86.4 | 1438 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 186 |
| Michael Thomas | 150 | 114.1 | 1326 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 186 |
| Rishard Matthews | 150 | 95.4 | 1281 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 186 |
| Antonio Brown | 150 | 104.9 | 1310 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 186 |
| Dez Bryant | 150 | 83.6 | 1160 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 184 |
| A.J. Green | 150 | 98.5 | 1374 | 8.1 | 1.0 | 184 |
| Julio Jones | 150 | 100.7 | 1462 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 183 |
| Brandin Cooks | 150 | 102.4 | 1324 | 8.6 | 0.7 | 183 |
| Sammy Watkins | 150 | 88.2 | 1294 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 179 |
| Chris Hogan | 150 | 99.6 | 1343 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 176 |
| Adam Thielen | 150 | 110.4 | 1414 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 175 |
| Torrey Smith | 150 | 76.0 | 1104 | 11.0 | 0.7 | 175 |
| Tyrell Williams | 150 | 89.7 | 1269 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 174 |
| Randall Cobb | 150 | 104.6 | 1179 | 9.5 | 0.8 | 173 |
| Kenny Stills | 150 | 84.0 | 1228 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 170 |
| Mike Evans | 150 | 84.8 | 1184 | 8.6 | 0.5 | 169 |
| Seth DeValve | 150 | 105.9 | 1153 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 169 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 150 | 101.0 | 1167 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 169 |
| Tyler Lockett | 150 | 101.1 | 1281 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 168 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 150 | 88.2 | 1333 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 167 |
| Michael Floyd | 150 | 80.3 | 1128 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 167 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 150 | 98.1 | 1333 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 167 |
| Cole Beasley | 150 | 111.7 | 1184 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 166 |
| DeVante Parker | 150 | 94.8 | 1261 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 165 |
| Eric Decker | 150 | 89.0 | 1129 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 165 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 150 | 95.3 | 1196 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 165 |
| Kendall Wright | 150 | 97.4 | 1162 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 164 |
| Kenny Britt | 150 | 89.7 | 1303 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 164 |
| Freddie Martino | 150 | 102.0 | 1218 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 164 |
| Allen Hurns | 150 | 82.5 | 1111 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 163 |
| Justin Hunter | 150 | 83.4 | 1120 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 161 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 150 | 83.7 | 1118 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 160 |
| Brandon Coleman | 150 | 100.1 | 1169 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 160 |
| Rashad Ross | 150 | 99.6 | 1210 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 160 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 150 | 88.0 | 1206 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 159 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 150 | 100.7 | 1131 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 159 |
| John Brown | 150 | 88.2 | 1186 | 7.0 | 0.9 | 159 |
| J.J. Nelson | 150 | 75.5 | 1137 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 158 |
| Travis Benjamin | 150 | 89.2 | 1199 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 158 |
| Willie Snead | 150 | 105.2 | 1299 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 158 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 150 | 93.7 | 1187 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 158 |
| Amari Cooper | 150 | 92.8 | 1227 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 158 |
| Donte Moncrief | 150 | 89.9 | 999 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 158 |
| Jamison Crowder | 150 | 106.2 | 1184 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 157 |
| Tyreek Hill | 150 | 109.7 | 1068 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 157 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 150 | 105.1 | 1202 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 156 |
| Ted Ginn | 150 | 79.7 | 1083 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 156 |
| Cameron Meredith | 150 | 103.7 | 1261 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 155 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 150 | 93.1 | 1080 | 8.2 | 1.0 | 155 |
| Mike Wallace | 150 | 89.9 | 1130 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 155 |
| Jordan Matthews | 150 | 98.8 | 1108 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 155 |
| Davante Adams | 150 | 92.6 | 1057 | 8.4 | 1.0 | 154 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 150 | 89.6 | 1180 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 154 |
| Jordan Taylor | 150 | 98.0 | 1100 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 153 |
| Marvin Jones | 150 | 88.3 | 1223 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 153 |
| Markus Wheaton | 150 | 88.6 | 1164 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 152 |
| Eric Weems | 150 | 99.9 | 1026 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 152 |
| Eddie Royal | 150 | 108.2 | 1087 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 151 |
| Dwayne Harris | 150 | 96.2 | 1049 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 151 |
| Geronimo Allison | 150 | 90.6 | 1112 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 151 |
| Sterling Shepard | 150 | 95.2 | 973 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 151 |
| Eli Rogers | 150 | 109.1 | 1195 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 151 |
| Allen Robinson | 150 | 79.8 | 1050 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 150 |
| Stefon Diggs | 150 | 108.2 | 1199 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 150 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 150 | 91.3 | 1168 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 149 |
| Tavarres King | 150 | 90.0 | 1107 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 148 |
| Arrelious Benn | 150 | 88.8 | 1091 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 148 |
| Andre Holmes | 150 | 80.1 | 950 | 9.1 | 0.8 | 148 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 150 | 92.7 | 1136 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 148 |
| Greg Salas | 150 | 89.6 | 1158 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 147 |
| Rod Streater | 150 | 100.2 | 1017 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 147 |
| Brice Butler | 150 | 82.8 | 1081 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 147 |
| Brandon Tate | 150 | 95.0 | 1117 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 147 |
| Seth Roberts | 150 | 82.5 | 938 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 147 |
| Russell Shepard | 150 | 88.0 | 1076 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 146 |
| Jalin Marshall | 150 | 96.7 | 1029 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 146 |
| Danny Amendola | 150 | 106.8 | 1024 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 146 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 150 | 85.3 | 1094 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 145 |
| Devin Funchess | 150 | 71.5 | 964 | 8.5 | 0.9 | 145 |
| Pierre Garcon | 150 | 100.6 | 1151 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 145 |
| Deonte Thompson | 150 | 94.8 | 1088 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 145 |
| Brandon Marshall | 150 | 79.0 | 984 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 145 |
| Brandon LaFell | 150 | 87.9 | 1091 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 145 |
| Jeff Janis | 150 | 86.0 | 1012 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 144 |
| Nick Williams | 150 | 101.8 | 1028 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 144 |
| Jeremy Ross | 150 | 104.3 | 1119 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 143 |
| DeAndre Smelter | 150 | 100.1 | 1080 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 142 |
| Keenan Allen | 150 | 108.4 | 1107 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 141 |
| Kamar Aiken | 150 | 92.0 | 1046 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 141 |
| Sammie Coates | 150 | 74.4 | 1127 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 141 |
| Marquess Wilson | 150 | 88.3 | 1129 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 141 |
| Paul Richardson | 150 | 95.4 | 1105 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 140 |
| Golden Tate | 150 | 103.3 | 1131 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 140 |
| Jarius Wright | 150 | 104.1 | 1175 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 140 |
| Damiere Byrd | 150 | 100.0 | 1054 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 140 |
| Alex Erickson | 150 | 102.8 | 1085 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 140 |
| Michael Crabtree | 150 | 91.9 | 970 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 139 |
| Corey Brown | 150 | 84.6 | 1017 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 139 |
| Michael Campanaro | 150 | 100.9 | 1042 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 139 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 150 | 85.3 | 1113 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 139 |
| Josh Huff | 150 | 100.9 | 993 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 139 |
| Steve Smith | 150 | 87.3 | 1054 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 139 |
| Justin Hardy | 150 | 98.5 | 951 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 138 |
| Breshad Perriman | 150 | 81.5 | 1041 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 138 |
| Quan Bray | 150 | 100.3 | 1051 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 138 |
| Robert Woods | 150 | 98.3 | 1085 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 138 |
| Wendall Williams | 150 | 94.3 | 1073 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 137 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 150 | 85.1 | 1128 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 137 |
| Tony Washington | 150 | 99.9 | 1028 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 137 |
| Mario Alford | 150 | 98.7 | 1032 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 137 |
| Jarvis Landry | 150 | 107.2 | 1125 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 137 |
| Paul Turner | 150 | 97.8 | 1092 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 137 |
| Keshawn Martin | 150 | 94.7 | 1062 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 137 |
| Bralon Addison | 150 | 100.0 | 1036 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 137 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 150 | 102.4 | 1046 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 137 |
| Paul McRoberts | 150 | 100.1 | 1020 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 137 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 150 | 84.4 | 1083 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 136 |
| Leonte Carroo | 150 | 91.6 | 939 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 136 |
| Tony Lippett | 150 | 97.1 | 1005 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 135 |
| Jaelen Strong | 150 | 91.6 | 938 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 134 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 150 | 96.6 | 1000 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 134 |
| Bryan Walters | 150 | 103.2 | 1054 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 134 |
| Griff Whalen | 150 | 100.4 | 1045 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 134 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 150 | 106.9 | 1048 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 133 |
| J.D. McKissic | 150 | 100.3 | 1002 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 133 |
| Marc Mariani | 150 | 98.0 | 1120 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 133 |
| Brian Quick | 150 | 80.8 | 999 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 132 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 150 | 73.9 | 963 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 132 |
| Darren Waller | 150 | 90.6 | 881 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 132 |
| Josh Bellamy | 150 | 83.5 | 994 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 132 |
| Marqise Lee | 150 | 90.2 | 1092 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 131 |
| Vince Mayle | 150 | 94.4 | 977 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 131 |
| Anquan Boldin | 150 | 90.8 | 940 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 131 |
| Jaron Brown | 150 | 82.0 | 971 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 131 |
| Jeremy Butler | 150 | 105.7 | 1119 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 131 |
| Robby Anderson | 150 | 85.7 | 1057 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 130 |
| Josh Doctson | 150 | 85.6 | 1016 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 130 |
| Brittan Golden | 150 | 93.0 | 942 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 130 |
| Adam Humphries | 150 | 101.4 | 1062 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 130 |
| Devin Hester | 150 | 90.2 | 1033 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 130 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 150 | 97.5 | 1009 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 130 |
| Albert Wilson | 150 | 92.8 | 1003 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 129 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 150 | 78.0 | 949 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 129 |
| Victor Cruz | 150 | 84.9 | 1103 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 128 |
| Trevor Davis | 150 | 88.2 | 889 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 128 |
| Kasen Williams | 150 | 93.5 | 961 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 128 |
| Brenton Bersin | 150 | 94.3 | 1011 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 128 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 150 | 83.7 | 1030 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 128 |
| Dezmin Lewis | 150 | 91.9 | 951 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 128 |
| Isaac Fruechte | 150 | 91.9 | 951 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 128 |
| Demarcus Ayers | 150 | 91.8 | 908 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 128 |
| Shane Wynn | 150 | 90.5 | 963 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 128 |
| Chester Rogers | 150 | 89.5 | 1067 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 127 |
| Cody Core | 150 | 96.6 | 1039 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 127 |
| Jakeem Grant | 150 | 91.9 | 951 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 127 |
| Tyler Boyd | 150 | 101.2 | 1078 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 127 |
| Chris Conley | 150 | 95.8 | 1052 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 126 |
| Charles Johnson | 150 | 87.8 | 1056 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 126 |
| Maurice Harris | 150 | 99.3 | 973 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 126 |
| Je'Ron Hamm | 150 | 93.4 | 940 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 125 |
| Roger Lewis | 150 | 76.4 | 840 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 125 |
| Johnny Holton | 150 | 89.3 | 963 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 125 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 150 | 89.6 | 940 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 125 |
| Julian Edelman | 150 | 95.1 | 1006 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 124 |
| Ty Montgomery | 150 | 116.6 | 1000 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 124 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 150 | 106.1 | 996 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 123 |
| Jordan Payton | 150 | 90.3 | 910 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 122 |
| Andre Roberts | 150 | 84.9 | 987 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 122 |
| Rashard Higgins | 150 | 88.6 | 951 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 122 |
| Bennie Fowler | 150 | 84.9 | 978 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 121 |
| Geremy Davis | 150 | 88.4 | 914 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 121 |
| Daniel Braverman | 150 | 87.1 | 902 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 121 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 150 | 101.8 | 945 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 120 |
| Cody Latimer | 150 | 90.5 | 908 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 120 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 150 | 72.2 | 898 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 120 |
| TJ Jones | 150 | 78.5 | 927 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 120 |
| James Wright | 150 | 96.7 | 972 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 120 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 150 | 91.7 | 984 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 120 |
| Kalif Raymond | 150 | 86.8 | 898 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 120 |
| Devin Street | 150 | 78.3 | 892 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 119 |
| Chris Harper | 150 | 94.4 | 955 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 119 |
| Harry Douglas | 150 | 88.0 | 978 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 118 |
| Matthew Slater | 150 | 85.8 | 888 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 118 |
| Will Fuller | 150 | 83.0 | 967 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 118 |
| Corey Coleman | 150 | 75.0 | 851 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 117 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 150 | 79.7 | 923 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 116 |
| Walter Powell | 150 | 90.8 | 923 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 115 |
| Vincent Jackson | 150 | 74.0 | 970 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 115 |
| Trey Burton | 150 | 96.0 | 917 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 114 |
| Percy Harvin | 150 | 95.8 | 939 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 113 |
| Quinton Patton | 150 | 88.6 | 989 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 113 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 150 | 83.0 | 891 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 113 |
| Michael Thomas | 150 | 81.7 | 859 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 112 |
| Bryce Treggs | 150 | 73.2 | 874 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 111 |
| Nelson Agholor | 150 | 83.3 | 878 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 111 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 150 | 107.1 | 892 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 111 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 150 | 84.8 | 902 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 111 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 150 | 86.1 | 870 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 111 |
| Devin Smith | 150 | 74.3 | 817 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 110 |
| Braxton Miller | 150 | 88.3 | 786 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 110 |
| Ryan Grant | 150 | 82.6 | 843 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 110 |
| Jordan Norwood | 150 | 92.0 | 928 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 110 |
| Rashad Greene | 150 | 91.6 | 746 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 109 |
| Isaiah Burse | 150 | 78.5 | 812 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 109 |
| Charone Peake | 150 | 88.3 | 881 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 108 |
| Ricardo Louis | 150 | 83.4 | 887 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 108 |
| Bradley Marquez | 150 | 89.3 | 851 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 107 |
| Kevin White | 150 | 86.7 | 867 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 107 |
| Tavon Austin | 150 | 89.0 | 781 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 104 |
| Andre Johnson | 150 | 73.0 | 788 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 104 |
| Chris Moore | 150 | 83.0 | 789 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 104 |
| Logan Paulsen | 150 | 82.4 | 742 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 103 |
| Keith Mumphery | 150 | 90.5 | 831 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 102 |
| Cecil Shorts | 150 | 77.6 | 842 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 98 |
With the targets evenly distributed, some of the top producers move off their top spots but should return once targets are correctly distributed. Some names stick out, though, especially Terrance Williams at the top (eight spots ahead of teammate Dez Bryant).
Williams tops the list for the simple reasons: he is projected to catch balls thrown his way (65 percent), get good yardage (14.1 Y/REC) and score a touchdown every 10 times he catches the ball. While Bryant goes deep and scores, he's projected to only catch 56 percent of the passes thrown his way.
Another interesting name is Rishard Matthews at seventh overall. If targeted, he could be a productive receiver, but the Titans added Eric Decker, Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor this offseason. While I haven't projected the rookies yet, Decker ranks as the 29th overall receiver. Figuring out who will get the targets will be key to determining each of their values.
That's it for wide receivers. While it would be easy for me to transition to tight ends, running backs are more important. Those are up next.
