Harrison Smith

The specter of decline will hover over any player who turns 31, and Smith is no exception, but his quality of play remained quite high in 2019. He was an uncommonly athletic safety when he entered the league out of Notre Dame, so there's a good chance he'll continue to age gracefully as long as he avoids injury. Unfortunately for his IDP purposes specifically, Smith's tackle rate isn't quite as high as it was in his first three seasons, resting lately in the 80-90 tackle range rather than the 90-100 tackle pace of his earlier years. If that continues, then it will generally be difficult for Smith to provide DB1 returns unless he has higher-range outcomes with blitz and coverage production. As much as Smith has three-sack, five-interception upside in any given season, sacks and turnovers are volatile stat categories, and not much is guaranteed there. Still, it would be disappointing if Smith didn't register in the top-20 among defensive back IDPs in 2020.

It's reasonable to rank Smith a bit lower if tackles are your only priority, as he has only 162 in his last 1,997 snaps, but he has shown 90-plus tackle upside multiple times. Where he stands out either way is with playmaking stats, because Smith is a very good real-life safety who makes game-changing plays as a blitzer (six sacks the last three years) and in coverage (eight interceptions the last two years). He also might be due for a touchdown after scoring four in his first three years but none in his last three.

Smith would be ranked in the top five if a 16-game season could be assured, so move him up in your rankings if per-game projections matter more to you than aggregate projections. Smith is an elite safety by real football standards, but injuries tend to follow him. He played through an ankle issue last year, and in the five prior seasons he played 16 games only twice. Unlike some other boom-or-bust guys on this list, Smith is too much of a name brand to come at a discount in most leagues. Still, skills like this can pay off even if you can't get him for cheap.

Whereas the previously listed players have both high ceilings and floors, Smith's entry marks the part of the list where the floors get lower. Smith is an excellent player who provides upside in all relevant IDP categories, but his injury history is a bit concerning. He played 16 games only twice in five years, missing a total of 13 games over the other three seasons. If he plays his third 16-game season this year, though, the sky would be the limit. His career production rates project to 97 tackles, two sacks, three interceptions and one touchdown per 16 games.

Smith has become one of the top safeties in the league and would be among the top few IDP selections except for occasional durability troubles. Smith has 314 tackles and 12 interceptions (as well as four touchdowns) in 53 career contests, which projects to about 95 tackles and four picks per 16-game stretch. The catch is that he's played 16 games only twice in his four seasons, missing eight outings in 2013 and three more in 2015. He's worth the risk, though. His talent can't be doubted, and the Minnesota defense is on the way up. There will be playmaking opportunities.

Smith is arguably the league's top playmaker at safety, with triple-digit tackle potential as well as the potential to rank among the league's interception leaders. Prorated over 16 games, Smith's three-year per-game production equals about 100 tackles, four interceptions and 1.5 sacks. Smith also has three career touchdowns. Playing in a Mike Zimmer defense that should apply heavy pressure this season, Smith will once again be in position to ball hawk. His only concern is durability. He had a nagging ankle injury last year and needed two finger surgeries this offseason in addition to a turf toe injury that cost him eight games two years ago.

Smith has been one of the league's top defensive back IDPs since the Vikings selected him 129th overall in the 2012 draft, carrying over the triple-digit tackle potential he showed at Notre Dame into the NFL by posting 156 tackles (117 solo) in 24 games, which projects to roughly 104 tackles (78 solo) per 16-game season. With good speed, excellent quickness and a big wingspan for a safety, Smith can cover ground better than most players at his position, and he should receive more playmaking opportunities now that Minnesota's defense will be run by coach Mike Zimmer, who generated a lot of pressure in Cincinnati. Considering Smith has five interceptions and two touchdowns in his first 24 games, any increase in turnover production would be icing on the cake. He has one of the highest ceilings among the top tier of IDP defensive backs. The only slight concern with Smith is his health, after he suffered a turf toe injury in 2013, but the fact that he returned from the injury in Week 15 would seem to imply that it's a thing of the past.

The first-round pick out of Notre Dame had an enormous IDP season as a rookie last year, just missing the triple-digit tackle mark with 98 stops. Smith also made an impact as a playmaker, posting one sack and intercepting three passes, two of which he took back for touchdowns. There's little reason to think Smith won't keep making plays in 2013 because Minnesota figures to have a powerful pass rush with Jared Allen, Everson Griffen, Kevin Williams, Sharrif Floyd and Brian Robison chasing quarterbacks.

Smith is a lock to start from Week 1 after the Vikings traded up to select him near the end of the first round of the 2012 draft, and his college production gives reason to expect good IDP numbers right away. He posted 181 tackles (109 solo) and seven interceptions in his final 26 college games, which projects to roughly 111 tackles (67 solo) and four interceptions in a 16-game season. Considering he'll be chasing a lot of bombs thrown by Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford – and a struggling Vikings offense should leave the Minnesota defense on the field for a high snap count – Smith should get more than his fair share of chances to make tackles in the secondary. Like Mark Barron in Tampa Bay, Smith is an elite target in dynasty leagues.