THURSDAY NIGHT
Miami (+12) at Buffalo, o/u 49.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Dolphins didn't look quite as ramshackle last week as they did in their opener, but then again, they allowed the Patriots to score more than 30 points for the first time since Week 6 of the 2022 season, so I wouldn't go so far as to say the Fish are out of the woods, so to speak. The offense at least perked up, with De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill both topping 100 scrimmage yards while Jaylen Waddle contributed a 5-68-1 line, but Miami is still one Tua Tagovailoa concussion away from potential disaster on that side of the ball. (Although now that I think about it, if you need to gamble on a QB to become surprisingly useful out of nowhere long after everyone has given up on them, grabbing an ex-New York signal-caller seems to be the way to go. I'm not saying Zach Wilson will be the next Sam Darnold, or Daniel Jones, or Geno Smith, but I'm not not saying it either.) The defense, meanwhile, let Drake Maye produce nearly as many TDs as incompletions and turnovers combined, one week after Jones lit it up too. Through two games Miami has a 126.1 QB rating against, which doesn't even include the three rushing TDs it's given up to the position. To put that in perspective, the record for the lowest QB rating against in history over a full season belongs
THURSDAY NIGHT
Miami (+12) at Buffalo, o/u 49.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Dolphins didn't look quite as ramshackle last week as they did in their opener, but then again, they allowed the Patriots to score more than 30 points for the first time since Week 6 of the 2022 season, so I wouldn't go so far as to say the Fish are out of the woods, so to speak. The offense at least perked up, with De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill both topping 100 scrimmage yards while Jaylen Waddle contributed a 5-68-1 line, but Miami is still one Tua Tagovailoa concussion away from potential disaster on that side of the ball. (Although now that I think about it, if you need to gamble on a QB to become surprisingly useful out of nowhere long after everyone has given up on them, grabbing an ex-New York signal-caller seems to be the way to go. I'm not saying Zach Wilson will be the next Sam Darnold, or Daniel Jones, or Geno Smith, but I'm not not saying it either.) The defense, meanwhile, let Drake Maye produce nearly as many TDs as incompletions and turnovers combined, one week after Jones lit it up too. Through two games Miami has a 126.1 QB rating against, which doesn't even include the three rushing TDs it's given up to the position. To put that in perspective, the record for the lowest QB rating against in history over a full season belongs to the 2015 Saints at 116.2. To get there, they had to allow a 68.4 percent completion rate (league average that year was 63.0 percent), more than 4,500 passing yards in 16 games and a 45:9 TD:INT. It's only two games, sure, but the Dolphins are on track to be significantly worse than that, and they have none of the usual excuses: a really tough early schedule, adjusting to a new defensive coordinator and scheme, or lots of key injuries.
Josh Allen's probably looking at those rushing TD numbers and wondering if he can match or beat them in one night. The Bills are already threatening to pull away in the AFC East — that New England win over Miami last week is the only game another team in the division has won so far — and after that stunning comeback win against the Ravens in their opener, they successfully avoided a letdown against the Jets in Week 2. Allen took a back seat to James Cook last week, but Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both showed early flashes of taking a leap forward in 2025, and this team had already finished in the top six in PPG in five consecutive ears. The last thing Allen needs is more weapons. The Buffalo defense throttled Justin Fields last week before finally knocking him out of the game in the fourth quarter, and while the unit will come into this one a bit shorthanded, it still boasts what looks like a strong secondary, and Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa coming off the edge. That's probably more than enough against a patchwork Dolphins offensive line.
Key Info
MIA injury report: WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, shoulder), TE Darren Waller (out, hip), LG Liam Eichenburg (PUP, undisclosed), RG James Daniels (IR, pectoral), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), EDGE Chop Robinson (questionable, knee), CB Storm Duck (out, ankle), CB Kaden Kohou (IR, knee), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (out, calf)
BUF injury report: K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DT Ed Oliver (out, ankle), DT Larry Ogunjobi (out, suspension), LB Matt Milano (out, pectoral), CB Taron Johnson (questionable, quadriceps), CB Maxwell Hairston (IR, knee)
Slight lean: WR Jaylen Waddle (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
Strong lean: QB Josh Allen (MIA 30th in passing DVOA in 2025, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2025)
Strong lean: TE Dalton Kincaid (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. TE, 25th in receptions allowed to TEs in 2024, 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2025)
Slight fade: WR Tyreek Hill (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2025)
Slight fade: RB James Cook (MIA t-seventh in rushing TDs allowed, seventh in passing DVOA allowed to RBs in 2024)
NFL weather report: 5-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 10-1 BUF, average score 33-20 BUF, average margin of victory 14 points. BUF has won nine straight meetings at Highmark Stadium by an average score of 36-22, although three of the last four victories have been by only a field goal
The Scoop: Achane pieces together 60 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 230 yards and a second TD to Waddle. Cook collects 80 yards but watches Allen scoop up two rushing scores in the red zone. Allen also throws for 290 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Coleman and Kincaid. Bills 34-17
Last week's record: 13-3, 11-5 ATS, 5-11 o/u
2025 record: 24-8 (.750), 21-10-1 ATS (.677), 11-21 o/u (.344)
