2023 Sony Open in Hawaii Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on January 11, 2023

Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Preview

The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii for one more week as it shifts from Maui to O'ahu for the annual Sony Open in Hawaii. Waialae Country Club has been the host venue since 1965 and despite not being an elevated event, still features seven of the top-25 players in the world and is headlined by tournament favorite, Tom Kim (11-1 odds). Last year, Hideki Matsuyama (20-1 odds) defeated Russell Henley with an eagle on the first playoff hole after posting consecutive rounds of 63 on the weekend.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 AM ET Wednesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 70, 7,044 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Sony Open Winners Since 2018

SG: Off-the-Tee: 33.6
SG: Approach: 25.2
SG: Around-the-Green: 30.0
SG: Putting: 6.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 13.6
Driving Distance: 60.2
Driving Accuracy: 51.2

At just over 7,000 yards, Waialae CC is one of the shorter venues on Tour and plays less than the scorecard length would indicate due to the elevation on Maui. Both par-5s are less than 550 yards and should be reachable in two for even the shortest hitters in the field. A couple of things stand out from the winner profiles – most notably that driving play is severely negated and thus, two of the last three champions have led the field in strokes-gained putting. Ultimately, I'll be looking to target strong iron players, especially those that excel from 150-200 yards with many approaches coming in that range. I'll also be looking for birdie makers as scores tend to be low here unless the wind kicks up, which isn't expected to be the case.

Course History

These five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, averaged the most birdies per round at Waialae Country Club over the last five years.

2020 runner-up Steele tops the list and is making his return after withdrawing during the fourth round of the Houston Open in November. The Tour veteran continues to be a solid ball-striker, gaining over a stroke per-round off-the-tee and on approach combined last season. Assuming he's healthy, his 90-1 odds make him an intriguing longshot play. Another player who has shown an affinity for the course is Conners (seventh choice at 22-1 odds), who has made the cut in all four of his appearances including three consecutive top-15 finishes. His recent form has left something to be desired, but historical trends have shown an advantage at the Sony to those that played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This should be a good spot for Conners to round into form.

Current Form

The following players have gained the most strokes on approach per-round over their last 20 rounds:

Tom Hoge: 1.39
Tom Kim: 1.20
Russell Knox: 1.12
Si Woo Kim: 0.84
Corey Conners: 0.78

Since joining the PGA Tour for the 2014-15 season, Hoge has ranked no worse than 65th in strokes-gained approach and has taken it to another level by finishing 11th last season and is first early on in 2022-23. The results have followed as a result, as he qualified for the Tour Championship for the first time and finished T-3 at the Sentry TOC. Hoge has had boom-or-bust results at this event with two top-15s and four missed cuts since 2016. Meanwhile, Si Woo Kim is also in good form with his irons, as he's gained strokes on approach in six straight tournaments. The three-time Tour winner comes in at 45-1 odds this week, and has made the cut in 4-of-5 starts at Waialae with a best finish of fourth in his debut in 2016.

Sony Open in Hawaii Bets: Outright Picks

Jordan Spieth (16-1)

Interestingly, Spieth is deciding to tee it up this week although he's traditionally skipped the event having last played it in 2019. He does have a third-place finish here, and I expect him to be motivated and focused to get into contention over the weekend. Outside of accuracy with driver, he's very good across the board and won't be forced to use the big club too often this week.

Russell Henley (22-1)

It's hard to go wrong with Henley at this event, as the 2013 winner here nearly did it again last year. He's also playing some of the best golf of his career, having won this fall following a season in which he ranked second in strokes-gained approach. No need to overthink this one.

Keith Mitchell (40-1)

This isn't a course that you'd think would be tailored to Mitchell's strengths, but yet he's posted four top-25s in five appearances, including a career-best T7 a year ago. I feel like I'll be taking Mitchell often at these odds in non-elevated events as he's played too well not win at some point this year.

Sony Open in Hawaii Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Gary Woodland (5-1)

Woodland is coming off a top-10 in his last start in which he was fueled by his iron play, and he has two top-10s in his last three trips to Honolulu. He only made 11-of-23 cuts last year despite gaining strokes in every category, so I expect some positive regression with his results this season.

Stephan Jaeger (7-1)

After failing to post a top-10 in his first two seasons on Tour, Jaeger seems to be comfortable on the main stage now and has posted a pair of top-10s in his last 10 starts. His short game is very strong and the course should suit him well.

Ben Griffin (9-1)

After seeing Griffin nearly win in his fifth Tour start this fall, I'm convinced that big things are in store for the 26-year-old rookie. He's shown himself to be a solid iron player early this season, gaining 0.63 strokes per round on approach.

Sony Open in Hawaii Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Maverick McNealy (-110) over Keegan Bradley

I won't make the mistake of overlooking McNealy at a place where we've seen elite putters win, an area that McNealy is one of the best in. Outside of winning the ZOZO this fall, Bradley hasn't done much over the last handful of months, so I'll lean towards the typically more consistent McNealy in the matchup format.

J.T. Poston (-120) over Harris English

I'm still waiting to see something out of English after an injury plagued 2022 saw him record just two top-25s in 16 starts. Meanwhile, Poston elevated his game to another level over the summer and over his last 13 starts has recorded nine top-25s. That's good enough for me to feel comfortable laying the extra juice.

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