2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on February 19, 2025

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Betting Preview

This week the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the fourth installment of the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld - a scenic Greg Norman design that sits along the Sierra Madre mountains in Nuevo Vallarta. Following many notable events on the West Coast Swing, the field takes a bit of a hit with only four top-50 players in the OWGR teeing-it-up, headlined by tournament favorite Akshay Bhatia at 14-1 odds. Last year, rookie Jake Knapp (40-1 odds) claimed his first Tour victory by two strokes over Sami Valimaki.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

Par 71, 7,436 yards

These are the average rankings of the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld champions.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 5.0
SG: Approach: 12.7
SG: Around-the-Green: 25.7
SG: Putting: 14.3
SG: Tee-to-Green: 1.7
Driving Distance: 9.7
Driving Accuracy: 18.0

Vidanta Vallarta was rebranded to VidantaWorld since last year's event and as a resort course has what you'd expect with its easy-to-hit fairways that average over 40 yards wide and large greens. That's where the comparisons end, however, as the length of the course limits this from being a traditional birdie-fest and provides plenty of challenges with four par-4s over 475 yards long. That will require players to pull driver often and the stats above back that up in there being a premium on distance over accuracy. With that said, water comes into play on 12 holes and several tee shots, so wayward drivers will be penalized. I'll also be looking to target players that hit it well from 175-225 yards, with a lot of approach shots coming in that range.

Mexico Mashers

The following players have the lowest scoring average at VidantaWorld (minimum eight rounds).

You won't find a golfer in the field this week that has a more consistent track record here than Rodgers, who has posted a top-10 result in all three of his appearances at the event. The main question will be how he bounces back from last week, where he held the 54-hole lead at Torrey Pines in the quest for his maiden Tour victory but ultimately finished T3. Another player that's shown form here that I have my eye on is Pan (50-1 odds), as he's posted a T29 and then a T3 finish last year at the event. His results were inconsistent last year, but he's started to flip the script on that narrative with three top-25s across his last four starts. While Pan is held back by his lack of distance, he makes up for it in every other aspect.

Best Ball-Strikers

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

With the drop in field strength we have the chance to highlight some other golfers this week, notably Kitayama who leads this list by a lengthy margin. His results this year haven't been anything noteworthy but his tee to green form dating back to the fall stands out. Kitayama finished T2 here in 2022 and is the T3 betting choice at 22-1 odds. A little farther down the odds board we find Yu (35-1), who has started to heat up the last couple weeks with back-to-back top-20s. He ranked seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green at last week's signature event, and he'll be making his debut at VidantaWorld. With his distance and strong long-iron play, he should fit the venue well.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Bets: Outright Picks

Sam Stevens (22-1)

Stevens is trending in the right direction having made all six of his cuts this year and looks close to winning following a runner-up result at the Farmers last month. The third year PGA Tour pro is a strong driver and putter with no glaring weaknesses in his game.

Ben Griffin (30-1)

Griffin missed the cut in his only appearance here in 2022 but that was back when he was on the Korn Ferry Tour. Outside of not being the longest hitter, he does everything else really well and tends to elevate against weaker fields.

Joe Highsmith (75-1)

The 24-year-old is entering his second year on Tour following a strong fall in which he closed with four consecutive top-20s. His ball striking is far too good for these odds and it's really a matter of if the putter heats up. When it does, he's usually in the mix.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Aldrich Potgieter (5-1)

The 20-year-old rookie missed his first two cuts to start the year before coming to life with a top-15 at the Farmers. Potgieter is a bomber that leads the tour in driving distance and should be able to overpower this venue.

Alejandro Tosti (7-1)

Keeping with the theme, Tosti is one of the best drivers on Tour as he was 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee last year and is fifth this year making him a great course fit. He finished tied for 10th in his Mexico Open debut in 2023.

Ben Kohles (9-1)

Kohles is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and combines that with a solid iron game, but he's often held back by his short game. With that said, he's gaining 1.42 strokes with the putter per round over his last two tournaments and around the green play is not a big factor here.

Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Bets: To Miss the Cut

Harry Hall (+240)

None of the matchup bets stand out to me, so I'm going to pivot to a couple of players I'm fading starting with Hall. In general I view Hall as underrated golfer but this course fit isn't very good for him in that he's a poor driver and his strength of around the green play will be marginalized. He's also cooled off with a MC and a T58 (out of 80) the last two tournaments.

Jake Knapp (+200)

Knapp is playing as the defending champion but you have to question the motivation considering this is his sixth week in a row in action. I also don't think he's playing as well as when he won here a year ago, and his sporadic driving could get himself into trouble with all the water that's in play.

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