DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The American Express Cash and GPP Strategy

THE AMERICAN EXPRESS

Purse: $9.2M
Winner's Share: $1.656M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Quinta, Calif.
Courses: Stadium Course at PGA West, plus the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta
Yardage: 7,187 (Stadium)
Par: 72
2025 champion: Sepp Straka

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour season began last week at the Sony Open. But does it truly begin before Scottie Scheffler fires his first shot?

Scheffler will make his 2026 debut this week, looking to continue his reign as most dominant golfer on the planet since the heyday of Tiger Woods a quarter-century ago. The world No. 1 is coming off a six-win season, which actually was a step back from his eight-win burst in 2024. But among those half-dozen wins were two majors, the PGA Championship and Open Championship, and two signature events. He was so far and away the best golfer that even Rory McIlroy winning the Masters, THE PLAYERS and the Pebble Beach signature event couldn't get a sniff of the Player of the Year Award.

Scheffler now has four major titles. He could complete the career grand slam at the U.S. Open this June at Shinnecock Hills on New York's Long Island.

Scheffler heads to the California desert as the overwhelming favorite to win his 24th career tournament even though the resurgent Amex will offer a boffo field. Five of the top-10 players in the world -- Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin and Justin Rose are the others -- and 11 of the top-25 highlight the maxed-out 156-man field. Other bold-faced names include Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa and defending champion Sepp Straka.

One other fun fact about the field: Blades Brown, the 18-year-old phenom, was playing in the Korn Ferry Tour event in the Bahamas from Sunday to Wednesday (he made the cut), then planned to jet to California for the Amex, where he is in on a sponsor invite.

Last year, the Amex originally had Scheffler and world No. 2 Xander Schauffele commit to the tournament. But Scheffler sliced open his hand at Christmas dinner and required surgery, and Schauffele pulled out three days before the first round.

It was the latest 1-2 gut punch for a tournament that had fallen on hard times, a far cry from the glory days of Bob Hope's five-day, 90-hole celebrity-splashed extravaganza that was one of the must-watch tournaments of the entire year.

Hope, one of the biggest stars in Hollywood, pulled in a star-studded lineup of show business types to frolic in the warm California desert in the dead of winter, which in turn brought out the biggest players in golf. Fans back east in the shivering cold ate it up. Eventually, as Hope and the show business types aged, the tournament lost its luster, and that was accelerated when Hope passed away in 2003 at age 100. His name was removed from the title eight years later. People of a certain age still refer to this event as "the Hope."

The tournament drifted from sponsor to sponsor after Hope's passing: Chrysler, Humana, CareerBuilder, Workday and even a few years with no title sponsor. American Express came on board six years ago.

Now, this tournament could find some of that lost luster, beginning this week with Scheffler's debut and a great accompanying field. And down the road, things could get even brighter. With the rumored plan to condense the PGA Tour schedule beginning as soon as next year, the Amex could wind up as the potential season-opening tournament. But that is far from certain.

The two PGA West tracks –- the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course (par-72, 7,147 yards) –- were introduced in 2016 to go along with venerable La Quinta (par-72, 7,060). They are largely pushovers for today's golfers, though the Stadium is surely the toughest. The golfers will rotate on the three courses before a rare 54-hole cut for 65 and ties, and then the 1986 Pete Dye-designed Stadium track will go it solo on Sunday.

We'll focus on the Stadium here, since it will be used for two rounds, though some things apply to all three courses. All are short, so driver isn't always needed. With water on seven Stadium holes and more than 90 bunkers, there is at least some trouble lurking. And the bermudagrass greens are some of the smallest the golfers will see all year, averaging only 5,000 square feet. But they are simple and pretty slow.

This is annually one of the biggest birdie-fests. Last year, Straka won at 25-under and two years ago, Nick Dunlap's 29-under broke Jon Rahm's one-year scoring record of 27-under.

Interestingly, Bermuda is the grass of choice on both PGA West courses, but poa is on La Quinta. That can't be easy for the golfers to switch mid-tournament. La Quinta's greens are even smaller than the Stadium track's, averaging about 4,800 square feet. Nicklaus' greens are the biggest at an average of 7,000 square feet.

As for the weather, pristine conditions await the golfers. High temperatures should be around 70 all four days with almost chance of rain and light winds.

Lineup construction: The Amex comes with a 54-hole cut after three days of pro-am play, so this might be a good week to consider a little added risk. If you don't get 6-for-6, you'd lose only 18 holes, and that might not kill your lineup in cash games. The top 65 players and ties will play on Sunday at the Stadium track. ... DraftKings is offering some one-day games, Tiers and Single Stat -- Birdie or Better. If you play those, a good strategy is to go only with golfers playing La Quinta or the Nicklaus course, if possible, and avoid the tougher Stadium course altogether.

Key Stats to Winning at the Stadium Course

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Par-5 Scoring
• Par-5 Efficiency, 550-600 yards 

Past Champions

2025 - Sepp Straka
2024 - Nick Dunlap
2023 - Jon Rahm
2022 - Hudson Swafford
2021 - Si Woo Kim
2020 - Andrew Landry
2019 - Adam Long
2018 - Jon Rahm
2017 - Hudson Swafford
2016 - Jason Dufner

Champion's Profile

There's little mystery this week. Getting on the green in short order will provide plenty of birdie of opportunities on some of the smallest and easiest greens the golfers will see all year.

Last year, Straka led the field in greens in regulation at 83 percent (60 of 72). He also ranked eighth in SG: Putting, which makes it easy to see how he got to 25-under and defeated Justin Thomas by two strokes. Straka ranked only 46th in driving distance, but he tied for ninth in accuracy, which added up to second in SG: Off-the-Tee. Thomas was wildly inaccurate off the tee, ranking 58th in the field, a problem that plagued him all season. He ranked 15th in both GIR and Putting -- good but not nearly enough to match Straka.

Two years ago, Dunlap was long and inaccurate off the tee but that mattered little. He ranked fourth in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in SG: Putting. Three years ago, Rahm somehow got it to 27-under with a terrible putting week -- he ranked 61st in the field. It was not a year for putters. But the past two years reinforced that putting is a good path to success here.

The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 261.5, which is a big number -- 26.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $14,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +275)
Scheffler is nearly $4,000 more than the No. 2 guy on the board, Patrick Cantlay. (For those of you scoring at home, that's like half of a $7,600 Wyndham Clark.) Scheffler has played the Amex five times. He has only one top-10, a third-place finish in his debut back in 2020. While Scheffler obviously is capable of winning any time he tees it up, he's most susceptible in birdie-fests on easy tracks. His biggest advantage shows up on hard courses. All that said, are you picking against him this week?

Ben Griffin - $10,200 (+2000)
Any thought that Griffin might play less now that he's married might be misguided. He made 30 starts last year, a huge number for a top-10 player, and is 2 for 2 on the young 2026 season (though it appears he'll take next week off at the Farmers). Griffin made a decent start last week, tying for 19th at the Sony. He has shined at the Amex, tying for seventh last year and ninth the year before. The field is far tougher this time around, but Griffin is also a far better golfer now. He checks in at No. 2 in our model, behind you-know-who.

$9,000-$9,900

Sam Burns - $9,800 (+2500)
Birdie-fests and elite putters are made for each other. Burns led the Tour in SG: Putting last season. He's had a pair of sixth-place finishes at the Amex, most recently two years ago. He tied for 29th in 2025. Despite some accuracy issues from the fairway last season, Burns still ranked 19th on Tour in birdie average -- the mark of a great putter.

Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,500 (+4000)
Once ranked sixth in the world, Fitzpatrick plummeted to outside the top-80 early in 2025. But beginning with the Masters, he has not missed a worldwide cut in 19 starts, with nine top-10s, and has now climbed back to No. 22 OWGR. Fitzpatrick won his last start at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship and notched top-10s in two majors last year at the PGA Championship and Open Championship.

Harry Hall - $9,000 (+3500)
Hall picked up right where he left off in 2025, finishing T6 at the Sony Open. When you are ranked top-10 in both SG: Around the Green and Putting, as Hall was last season, it more than makes up for mediocre play off the tee and from the fairway. The Englishman ranked third on Tour in birdie average in 2025.

$8,000-$8,900

Michael Thorbjornsen - $8,600 (+4500)
One of these days, Thorbjornsen will make a few putts. And when he does, watch out. He is an incredible driver, ranking top-10 on Tour last season in distance and top-50 in accuracy. That added up to seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee. He greatly improved his iron play over the course of the season. Thorbjornsen missed the cut in 6 of his first 9 starts, then only one more the rest of the way, finishing with a top-10 at the birdie-laden RSM Classic.

J.T. Poston - $8,000 (+6000)
Poston is one of those short hitters who is so challenged on beastly tracks but can more than hold his own on shorter courses. He finished T12-T11-T6 here the past three years, and also was T7 back in 2019. In 2025, Poston reached the BMW Championship, meaning he'll be in every 2026 signature event. He finished top-90 across the board in all the strokes-gained metrics. That may not sound like much, but it really is, all while averaging only 295 off the tee.

$7,000-$7,900

Pierceson Coody - $7,800 (+7500)
One of the 20 Korn Ferry Tour grads, Coody shined in his debut as a PGA Tour member with a T13 last week at the Sony. That followed a strong fall season in which he made all four of his cuts with two top-25s. Coody finished eighth on the KFT in driving distance last season, second in putting average and seventh in birdie or better.

Akshay Bhatia - $7,800 (+8000)
Maybe more than any other price, this one stood out to us as a big bargain. Bhatia is another short hitter (averaging under 300 off the tee) who can compete far better on shorter tracks. He ranked 14th on Tour in SG: Approach last season and 35th in SG: Putting, a 1-2 punch that will serve him well on any course. Bhatia also ranked 14th in birdie average.

Matt Wallace - $7,300 (+12000)
The range of outcomes for Wallace is big. He was able to get it to 20-under at the 3M Open last season, so we know he can go low. He also missed 11 cuts in 26 starts. He's good with most clubs -- even great with a wedge -- yet not so good with driver. He won't have to use it much this week, so his upside is higher than in many weeks.

$6,000-$6,900

Chris Kirk - $6,900 (+13000)
Kirk missed the cut at the Sony last week, just like he did last year. He followed that up with an opening-round 64 at the Amex en route to a T34 finish. He's made the cut here three years running, with a tie for third in 2023. Kirk ranked 33rd on Tour last season in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green -- excellent numbers -- but was a woeful 153rd in SG: Putting. Yet he was a respectable 75th in birdie average. He lost almost a full stroke to the field on the greens last week.

Tom Hoge - $6,500 (+40000)
Hoge was a top-50 player on Tour last season -- a very good season -- so he will be in every signature event in 2026. Yet he still finds himself deep in the $6,000s. Part of it is, he misses a lot of cuts. But at the Amex, he's made four in a row, including T29 last year, T17 two years ago and runner-up in 2022. Hoge usually has to rely on his iron play (41st in SG: Approach last season), because he's not especially good with either driver or putter in hand.

Kensei Hirata - $6,200 (+100000)
We turned to Hirata last week and he delivered a top-25 at the Sony, just like he did there last year. But those are his only PGA Tour starts the past two years, so we'll learn whether the 25-year-old from Japan can make a dent on the PGA Tour after graduating from the Korn Ferry, or just happens to like Waialae. As we said above, the cut is after 54 holes, so it's an opportunity to take on some added risk.

Think you've got your DraftKings plays picked out for The American Express? See how they look in RotoWire's PGA DFS Lineup Optimizer.