This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
SONY OPEN IN HAWAII
Purse: $7.9M
Winner's Share: $1.422M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Course: Waialae Country Club
Yardage: 7,044
Par: 70
2022 champion: Hideki Matsuyama
Tournament Preview
If you were wondering what the field in a regular PGA Tour event would like in this new era of elevated events, the answer is: pretty darn good -- with an asterisk.
Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, defending champion Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson and Adam Scott highlight the first full field of 2023. Spieth, Horschel and Scott finished in the top 20 in the 2022 Player Impact Program. In return for the millions of dollars those 20 players received for being social media darlings, they are required to play in all the designated top events during 2023, plus three others of their choosing. Spieth, Horschel and Scott have thus ticked off one of their three.
Now for the asterisk part. A number of factors make the Sony Open one of the more attractive non-elevated events:
- It's the first opportunity for most of the golfers to play in 2023 after roughly two months off, so they want to get going.
- It's in Hawaii, which is not a bad place to be in winter.
- It's the second leg of the Hawaii Swing, making it convenient for 19 of the 39 guys who played in last week's lid-lifting Tournament of Champions to island-hop from Maui to Honolulu, greatly enhancing the strength of the 144-man field.
Of course, not every tournament has so much to offer, and that likely will be illustrated in full force at next week's American Express tournament in La Quinta.
But that's not the Sony's problem. Seven of the top-25 in the world and 13 of the top-50 are hand. Others of note include 2022 runner-up Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Corey Conners, Tom Hoge, Si Woo Kim, Keith Mitchell, Maverick McNealy and Tyler Montgomery. There are some intriguing sponsor invites, including No. 68-ranked Kazuki Higa, the 2022 leading money winner on the Japan Tour who also recently received a special invite to the Masters; No. 116 Yuto Katsuragawa, who tied for 53rd at the ZOZO in the fall and earlier made the cut at the Open Championship; and two amateurs, Kohei Okada of Japan and Blaze Akana, a sophomore at the University of Hawaii. (We said they were intriguing, we didn't say to bet them.)
Now let's take a brief look at the history of this tournament, because it is a modern golf marvel. For nearly six decades now, since the PGA Tour first arrived in Honolulu back in 1965, they have played the Sony at the same course every single year. Thus we have the fourth-longest association between tournament and course on the PGA Tour, behind only Augusta National, Pebble Beach and Colonial. That tells you all you need to know about famed Waialae Country Club, the Seth Raynor design that opened all the way back in 1927.
It always brings a fitting close to the two-week Hawaiian Swing. But Waialae and Kapalua, home to last week's TOC, are connected by more than just geography. Ever since the TOC relocated to Hawaii, 17 of the 24 Sony winners played Kapalua the week before, including nine of the past 11. That speaks to the advantage the TOC qualifiers have by getting a jump-start on tournament golf after the long holiday break. Of course, it also speaks to mostly better golfers being in the TOC. As mentioned, 19 of the 39 who played Kapalua last week are in the Waialae field.
It's also worth noting that 15 of the past 17 Sony champions had played Waialae multiple times before winning. It's a track where shot-makers thrive, and course knowledge certainly helps in that regard. Matt Kuchar, who won in 2019 and is in this year's field, has called Waialae "tricky." Drivers are often left in the bag, the better to negotiate short holes and many dog legs, and to keep the ball in the difficult-to-hit fairways. Last year, only three of the top-15 Sony finishers ranked in the top-10 in driving distance. Five of the par-4s are under 425 yards, including the 423-yard second, which is one of five holes on the course with water in play and traditionally the hardest hole on the track. The Bermudagrass greens are on the large side (averaging 7,100 square feet) and run about 11-12 on the Stimpmeter.
Most years, this tournament is a big-time birdie-fest. It's a short, par-70 track with only two par-5s, and you better score there if you want to contend. They are two of the easiest holes of the entire golf year. One of them, the ninth, is a mere 506 yards. The other is the closing 551-yard 18th.
Last year, Matsuyama and Henley tied at 23-under before Matsuyama won on the first playoff hole. Remember, that's 23-under on a par-70. Matsuyama birdied seven of the eight total par-5s, while Henley bettered that with two birdies and three eagles. Two years ago, Kevin Na won at 21-under. Justin Thomas holds the tournament record, finishing at 27-under in 2017, when he set the course record of 59 on Thursday.
As for the weather, more perfection in Hawaii: Highs around 80 all four days, almost no chance of rain and very little wind -- which could mean we're in for some real low scores.
Key Stats to Winning at Waialae
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Birdie Average
Past Champions
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama
2021 - Kevin Na
2020 - Cameron Smith
2019 - Matt Kuchar
2018 - Patton Kizzire
2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Fabian Gomez
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Russell Henley
Champion's Profile
We noted above that 17 of the past 24 winners had played the TOC the week before – including nine of the past 11 – and 15 of the past 17 Sony Open champions had played Waialae multiple times before winning. Three years ago, Smith was the first winner since the wraparound era began in 2013 to have not played in the previous week's TOC. But he was coming off the Presidents Cup in December, so he at least got in some recent competitive rounds. Matsuyama ranked outside the top-20 in driving distance last year, and he wasn't all that great on approach either, ranking T36 in greens in regulation. But in a total surprise, he led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. Playoff loser Russell Henley ranked seventh in driving distance, second in SG: Approach and third in Putting, stats normally good enough to win. Three of the top four finishers last year ranked in the top-5 in SG: Putting. The greens are flat without much going on, so even golfers who tend to struggle with their putter can have a good week, as Matsuyama illustrated. But most years, first and foremost the key is getting on the green in regulation. The GIR numbers have historically been very high on this short track, and golfers better be around the 75-percent mark to be in the mix. Henley hit more than 80 percent, but that was good enough to rank only T8 in the field. Lucas Glover led the way at a whopping 87.5 percent, hitting 63 of 72 greens in regulation. The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 258.5, which is 21.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1800)
Matsuyama withdrew four times in 2022 relating to his season-long neck issues, including in his final start of the year at Houston. He returned last week at Kapalua with a mediocre T21, but at least he got in all four rounds. We like him over top-priced Tom Kim, who has never played Waialae before, and No. 2-priced Sungjae Im, who has never played very well there before. Matsuyama is an interesting example of the learning curve required to succeed at Waialae. He missed the cut his first four visits and now has made five straight, with two top-20s preceding his victory there last year.
Tom Hoge - $9,900 (+2500)
We were on board Hoge last week at $6,500. Unfortunately, his price has gone way up, but we can't say it's not warranted. The key to Waialae is success from the fairway, and Hoge is ranked fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach after ranking 11th last season. He's coming off a tie for third at last week's Tournament of Champions. Hopefully that justifies this pick, because Hoge's track record at the Sony has been largely terrible. He's missed five of seven cuts, though the other two years resulted in a third-place finish in 2018 and a T12 in 2020.
Russell Henley - $9,800 (+2200)
We turn from Hoge, a TCU alum, to Henley, a former Georgia Bulldog. ... All the bad memories of blowing a back-nine lead last year may have come flooding back to Henley on the plane ride over. What had to make it painful is that this course suits Henley perfectly. He won here long ago in 2013 (in his first Sony). He had three additional top-20s through the years before last year's playoff loss to Matsuyama. Henley is ranked first in driving accuracy this season and 24th in greens in regulation, which actually is low for him. Henley won at another shot-makers course, Mayakoba, late in 2022 to punch his ticket to last week's TOC.
Corey Conners - $9,600 (+2500)
Conners has had great results at Waialae his last three visits. He was 11th last year and 12th and third before that. That's only natural for such a great ball striker, one who ranked 20th in driving accuracy last season and second in greens in regulation. The quality Sony results indicate that Conners has become accustomed to the greens, which is not something he can say about most courses. It's unlikely he can putt well enough to win, but a top-10 is within range. Conners completes our Tier 1 in which all four guys played Kapalua last week. He tied for 18th.
Tier 2 Values
Keegan Bradley - $9,300 (+3500)
Continuing with our theme of great ball strikers, Bradley should know this track inside-out as he's played Waialae more than 10 times. He tied for 12th there two of the past three years and now finds himself putting far better than in years past. He is ranked 70th in Strokes Gained: Putting to go along with 17th in greens in regulation. Bradley did not have a good week at Kapalua, finishing 34th of 39 entrants, but we're more focused on him already getting tournament reps after the winter break, unlike much of this week's field.
K.H. Lee - $8,700 (+3500)
Like with Tom Hoge, it's impossible to overlook the good finishes that are starting to pile up for Lee, who is now ranked 36th in the world. He's coming off a T7 last week at Kapalua, which followed a solo third at the CJ Cup, plus a top-five and a top-20 in the playoffs. Lee is ranked 25th in driving accuracy and fourth in greens in regulation. He missed his first two cuts at Waialae and now has made two in a row, with a T19 in 2021.
Cam Davis - $8,500 (+3500)
Regular readers may remember that the big-hitting Davis somehow has lots of good results at shorter tracks. Waialae is no different. The big Aussie missed the cut in his Sony debut four years ago, but since then has gone 9-31-27. Davis did not play last week at the TOC, but he did get in two late-year tournaments in Australia.
Andrew Putnam - $8,000 (+5000)
Putnam has not played since the RSM Classic before Thanksgiving, and we do wonder whether the long layoff will blunt what had been a terrific stretch for him. He has made 12 straight cuts going back to the 3M Open, half of them top-25s and two of them top-5s, including a co-runner-up at the ZOZO. Putnam is an accurate driver and a very good putter. He's made four of his past five Sony cuts with a runner-up back in 2019.
Tier 3 Values
Kurt Kitayama - $7,700 (+5500)
Kitayama debuted at the Sony last year and missed the cut. But that's okay, he knows what he's in for this time around. Besides, he's gotten so much better over the past 12 months. He turned a corner with a runner-up at the Scottish Open, then had another second-place showing at the CJ Cup and now stands at No. 42 in the world. Kitayama isn't the most accurate driver, but the big hitter will ease up on the gas this week. Otherwise, he is ranked 14th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Adam Svensson - $7,500 (+7000)
Svensson looked a bit overmatched alongside the game's greatest players last week, finishing 37th in a field of 39. The short hitter should be much more comfortable this week. In fact, he tied for seventh here last year and this will be his third trip to the Sony. Svensson's accuracy off the tee and approach numbers are middle of the pack, but last year he ranked sixth in the field in both SG: Approach and greens in regulation, and ranked 12th in SG: Putting.
Patton Kizzire - $7,300 (+13000)
Kizzire did not have a good 2022, and he has fallen far outside the top-200 in the world rankings. But he did tie for 10th late last year at Mayakoba, another track favoring more tactical play than flat-out bombing. That dove tails nicely with Kizzire's history at Waialae, where he won in 2018 and has had a top-10 and top-15 since then.
Lucas Glover - $7,000 (+30000)
This price is curiously low for a golfer who during his career has been among the most accurate iron players in the game. As mentioned above, Glover hit 87.5 percent of his greens in regulation last year in tying for fifth. He closed 2022 by making seven straight cuts.
Long-Shot Values
Stewart Cink - $6,900 (+18000)
Cink has made eight straight cuts at the Sony and nine of 10. We're counting on that familiarity, because the 49-year-old has not been playing all that well as he counts down the days till he is Champions Tour-eligible. That will be in late May. Cink hasn't been terrible -- he did make three of five cuts during the fall season.
Kevin Yu - $6,700 (+25000)
Yu is the only Sony newcomer among our picks. He had a good fall, making four of six cuts with two top-25s, including a T3 at Bermuda. Yu is impressively ranked 20th on Tour in greens in regulation and 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Michael Thompson - $6,700 (+30000)
Thompson is disadvantaged by being such a short hitter, something that won't hurt him this week. He's made six of his past seven Sony cuts, highlighted by a tie for fifth last year. We don't expect such a great repeat, but we do figure on Thompson playing all four rounds. He's ranked in the 60s in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation.
Brian Stuard - $6,300 (+30000)
Stuard missed 11 straight cuts last season and you wondered whether he'd ever see a Saturday again. He did, beginning at the Wyndham, and he closed 2022 cashing in four of his final five PGA Tour events. One of them was a tie for 12th at the Fortinet. Stuard missed the Sony cut last year, breaking a string of five straight. He's had four top-10s at Waialae through the years.
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