The Zozo Championship Preview: Can Thomas Go Back-to-Back?

The PGA Tour heads to Japan this week as the Asian swing continues. As was the case last week, this week's field contains plenty of big names and we should again be treated to some high-level play. Justin Thomas picked up his first win of the new season last week and  is again in the field this week. We also get a look at all four "Skins Game" participants this week, which makes sense since all four were already in Japan. 

The field is loaded, that's the good news. The bad news is there's no course history in play this week. That, coupled with the time of year, makes taking any big names a bit risky this week. But if last week is any indication, there will be some big names in play come Sunday. Yep, it's not exactly optimal.        

This Week: The Zozo Championship – Accordia Narashino Country Club, Chiba, Japan  

Last Year: This is the first year for this event.  

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (7-1)

No surprise that JT is atop the board this week as he won last week as the favorite. The problem of course, is that how often do you see someone go back-to-back on the PGA Tour? Well, since you asked, it happens about once per season, and JT actually pulled off the feat a few years ago. Last week's result shouldn't have any bearing on this week's outcome other than how Thomas is playing, though, and he's playing very well. Prior to Koepka taking over the majors, Thomas was among the candidates to be the next big thing. Now that he's healthy, he has a chance to seriously challenge Koepka this season, and two wins to start the season would send quite the message.

Rory McIlroy (8-1)  

Although he's not Brooks Koepka's rival, he's still pretty damn good, and this not being a major and all, certainly puts him in play this week. We haven't seen McIlroy on the PGA Tour since he won the Tour Championship a couple months back, but I have to assume that he's kept his game sharp. That said, his odds are awfully short this week and with the new course, I'd probably stay away from anyone with single-digit odds who isn't named Thomas.            

Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)

Matsuyama finished T3 last week at Nine Bridges and is playing in front of the home crowd this week, which could give him the boost he needs to get over the hump. Sometimes playing with the hometown pressure can be a bit too much, however. Every year we seem to fall into the trap of picking out a Canadian to win the Canadian Open, but that never seems to work. Different country, different skill levels, I get that, but it's hard to imagine how much pressure Matsuyama feels this week to play well. Maybe it propels him, maybe it sinks him. I think he'll be fine, but I doubt he wins.                    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                       

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

Weekend issues? What weekend issues? Spieth showed signs last week that perhaps the nightmare that was the 2018-19 season is a thing of the past as he played well enough on the weekend to hold onto a spot in the top 10. Notice I didn't say he played well. He played well enough. Big difference there as he actually went 70-71 on the weekend, which wasn't great, but it wasn't the disaster that we witnessed most of last season. The important thing is, he seems to be turning a corner.                

Xander Schauffele (20-1)

This will be Schauffele's first start on the PGA Tour this season, which means there's a bit of an unknown as far as his form, but we do know two things that help his cause this week. First, he's won in the fall before. He won the WGC-HSBC Championship last season. That's actually important because some of the best golfers in the world have never won during the fall portion of the season. Some guys just can't get amped up for this time of the year. Second, he's very adept at playing well at these bigger, non-major events. See his WGC and Tour Championship wins. This event isn't at that level, but it's a pretty big deal in Japan and there's a huge purse.            

Paul Casey (25-1)

This will be Casey's first start on the PGA Tour this season, but that doesn't mean he's been sitting on the sideline for two months. Casey picked up a win on the European Tour last month at the European Open and while it's impossible to know if his form is still strong entering this week, we do know that his confidence should be high. Casey is not one to wilt under the pressure of a strong field and though he's often had trouble sealing the deal on U.S. soil, that has rarely been the case abroad.              

LONGSHOTS

Byeong-Hun An (40-1)  

Entering last week, An looked like a terrible choice at Nine Bridges, but just seven days later, the perception of his game has done a 180. An had missed the cut in his two previous starts on the PGA Tour and his track record during the Asia swing left plenty to be desired, but that all turned around last week when he posted a T6 at Nine Bridges. With some added confidence, perhaps he can parlay last week's strong showing into another top-10 this week.                

Danny Lee (100-1)  

If you've read this article at all the last few years, you know that when Danny Lee gets hot, you best jump on that train because it's not going to last long. Entering last week, there was no indication  Lee was about to post a runner-up at Nine Bridges, but that's exactly what he did. He runs as hot and cold as anyone on the PGA Tour, and if he's still running hot entering this week, then he will have another good showing. Then again, the second he loses it, he's done, there's no recovery mode with Lee.              

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Justin Thomas - Those who failed to jump on JT last week are definitely kicking themselves. While it's always tough to pick someone off a win, JT might be one of a few guys that I would trust in this situation. I'll ask the same question I asked last week concerning JT. Does he have a better chance to win this week or at a specific major next year? The answer is this week because the field is not nearly as strong as it will be for every major next year.                  

Moderately Owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Schauffele is developing a reputation for playing well in big spots and while he played well at the majors last season, I don't think he's quite at the level where you would absolutely save him for a major, like you would for Koepka or even McIlroy. That means, you have the green light on a guy who is quickly becoming one of the more dependable players on the PGA Tour at an event where the winner clears more than $1.7 million.

Lightly Owned Pick: Danny Lee - Lee against a field like this is a big risk, but then again, there's no cut, which means he's getting paid. Actually, it's the perfect spot to use a guy like Lee, who has a lot of upside, but carries a lot of risk. Short field, he's hot, why not? Of course, this pick is for those who want to save their ammunition for the 2020 portion of the season.                          

Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - People have a natural tendency to gravitate toward the best story when making their picks and Matsuyama winning this week is definitely the best story, but I would proceed with caution. The pressure could get to Matsuyama this week, but beyond that, he's such a good pick at the Waste Management Open, that I would hesitate to use him anywhere else.                      

Last Week: Pat Perez - (T31) $55,478; Season - $328,909  

This Week: Danny Lee - That's right, I'm doing it. I mentioned that Lee is perfect for those who want to save their big guns for next season, and I certainly fall into that category. That and I hate chasing, which means that I can't force myself to use JT this week. Lee could end up dead last or he could find himself in the top-5 again this week, but that's the fun and with no cut, there's no risk.

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Justin Thomas ($12,200)/Paul Casey ($10,700)/Danny Lee ($8,400)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: no cut; Streak - 1

This week: no cut