NHL Game 1 Best Bets: Expert Picks & Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Analysis

Written by

Daniel Dobish

Updated on May 5, 2025 11:12AM EST

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The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs begins Monday at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, as the defending champion Florida Panthers meet the Atlantic Division champ Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 1 of their best-of-seven series. We'll focus not only on the line and total, but we'll also make some prop picks. Let's get started.

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Expert NHL Betting Tips for Stanley Cup Playoffs

For the latest NHL Odds, including NHL Futures and NHL player props, visit RotoWire's NHL Betting page. For up-to-date NHL player news and NHL Injury Report info, head to RotoWire's NHL Lineups page. You can find more picks at Bookies.com/picks. Here are our NHL Best Bets today, featuring expert NHL picks for an action-packed slate of games.

Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Game 1 Preview

Whew. We are still catching our breath from Sunday's wild Game 7 between the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets. Maple Leafs fans were likely feeling a little deja vu with that finish, as the Blues frittered away a two-goal lead in a Game 7 with less than two minutes left, eventually losing in double-overtime to the Winnipeg Jets. We had Blues ML and Under 5.5 goals, and honestly, we're not that mad. It was an epic game with amazing hockey.

As far as Leafs Nation is concerned, it is likely glad it is finally somebody else getting "meme'd on" this morning with Crying Jordan, the golf bag Stanley Cup presentation, etc. You know you've seen them. And, if you're a Toronto fan, you cannot stand those.

Heading into Game 1, we have an interesting matchup between Atlantic Division rivals. The Panthers, of course, won Lord Stanley's chalice last season, holding off the Edmonton Oilers in seven games in the Final. It is on a familiar path, as last season, they topped the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games in the first round. This season, they topped the Lightning in five games. However, Florida now travels to meet Toronto, and the Maple Leafs have a home-ice advantage. Last season, the Boston Bruins were the second-round foe, so things look a little different for the Cats.

Florida will see a familiar face in the net, too, as Anthony Stolarz, the backup to Sergei Bobrovsky in Sunrise last season, is the top tendy in T-Dot. Stolarz went 21-8-3 with a 2.14 GAA and .926 SV% with four shutouts in the regular season, and he is 4-2-0 with a 2.21 GAA and .901 SV% in these playoffs, his first wins as a starter in the postseason.

On the other side is, of course, Sergei Bobrovsky. He led the Cats to their first-ever Stanley Cup, and he followed that up by going 33-19-2 with a 2.44 GAA and .906 SV% with five shutouts in the regular season. He was 4-1-0 with a 2.21 GAA and .901 SV% in the first round, including a 19-save shutout in Game 2 at Tampa Bay.

The Panthers piled up plenty of offense against the Lightning, with Sam Reinhart leading the team with six points, including a pair of goals and two power-play assists. The team welcomed back crap-starter and irritant Matthew Tkachuk after a 25-game absence to close the regular season, and he stepped up with three goals and five points, including two power-play goals and four points on the man advantage. Brad Marchand chipped in with four helpers, too, while Sam Bennett also lit the lamp three times. Nate Schmidt had a surprising three goals in Round 1, too.

For the Leafs, William Nylander was on fire in Round 1, posting a team-best nine points against the Sens, including three goals, which also tied for the team lead. John Tavares and Matthew Knies each lit the lamp three times, too.

The "Core Four", usually a target of derision by opposing fans, did a good job in the opening round, just the second series win since 2004 for Toronto. Mitch Marner had a team-best seven helpers, including five on the power play, while averaging a 22:17 of total ice time (TOI), second only to Jake McCabe (22:30), a rearguard. Auston Matthews, a.k.a. The Big Cactus, delivered with two goals and seven points, while Johnny T had three goals and five points.

Toronto's Matthews did a good job at the faceoff dot, too, winning 59.7% (69-of-116) on his 176 total shifts. Florida's Barkov won 59.3% (51-of-86) inside the faceoff circle, and that will be a matchup within the matchup to pay close attention to, especially in the O-Zone.

These teams met in the 2023 postseason, with Florida winning in five games. The final four games of that series were decided by a single goal, including two games going to overtime. That was a goaltender combination of Joseph Woll, the current backup, and Ilya Samsonov, now in Vegas. Will Stolarz and his knowledge of the shooters help the Leafs to a better result this time around?

The money is still on Bobrovsky, who can single-handedly make a difference in this series. Toronto won the division, but it went 1-3-0 in four regular-season matchups, including 1-1 at home. Back the Panthers to seize Game 1 and take home-ice advantage away from the Maple Leafs.

And, in the series opener, we'll go for the Over, especially at just 5.5 total goals.

Top NHL Player Props and Odds for Game 1

Looking at the props, we'll definitely dabble in the Anytime Goal Scorer market for Game 1.

For Florida, Carter Verhaeghe had just an empty-net goal in Game 4, giving him two total points in the first four playoff games. But he had a power-play goal in Game 5 and appears to be heating up for the Cats. For the chance to nearly triple up, he is a good bet as an AGS.

Looking at Toronto, Nylander is playing with extreme confidence right now, and his quickness will be key. You can still get him at a price where you more than double your initial wager, and that's a better return than his teammate, Matthews.

And, for the Leafs, the 22-year-old Arizonan Knies had two or more shots on goal (SOG) in four of the first six playoff games, including each of the past three. He is a good bet to get to at least two SOG in Game 1 vs. FLA.