NHL Waiver Wire: Picking the First Round

Now that the fantasy season is in the rearview mirror, many of us are in pools for the best part of the hockey year: the Stanley Cup Playoffs. With the elimination of the Los Angeles Kings, the league will crown a new champion this year. There are a ton of really great first-round matchups, and if you navigate the waters carefully, you can position yourself to do really well in the later rounds. Let's look at each matchup and what could happen.

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers (M1) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (W2)

Both teams had surprising seasons: the Rangers, for unexpected success throughout the year to finish with the President's Trophy, and the Penguins, from whom much was expected but little was delivered. All signs point to this matchup heavily favouring the Rangers. Not only was New York one of the hottest playoff teams entering the postseason at 7-3-0 in its last 10, but it's also had Pittsburgh's number this year, going 3-0-1. With a healthy Henrik Lundqvist, and some highly potent offensive weapons in Rick Nash (third in NHL in goals), Derek Stepan, Martin St. Louis and Keith Yandle, anything short of a deep playoff run will be a huge disappointment. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is playing some of the worst hockey we've seen in the last decade. They Penguins are missing arguably their three best defensemen in Kris Letang, Christian Ehrhoff and Olli Maatta, all on the shelf with injuries, and it sure looks like Evgeni Malkin is playing hurt -- having been a non-factor in most games since the beginning of March. Unfortunately for Penguin fans, this series is going to be a quick one.

New York in five; Rangers make a mockery of what was once a potential dynasty

Montreal Canadiens (A1) vs. Ottawa Senators (W1)

This has all the potential hallmarks of being one of the craziest upsets in the history of the NHL postseason. Montreal has had a fantastic season on the back of Carey Price's MVP-worthy season; in one of the most impressive goalie seasons in history, Price has managed to claim the top spot in goals-against, save percentage, wins and just missed out on securing the "quadruple crown" by coming second in shutouts. It's a pretty easy conclusion to draw that without his stellar play, the Canadiens would be farther down the standings than where they are today. Similarly, Andrew Hammond (aka "The Hamburgler") has carried the Senators from a seemingly lost season into the playoff picture with his incredible 20-1-2 record. Important to note: while the Hamburgler has taken the net, Ottawa has beaten Montreal in both meetings with only two goals allowed in each game. This series will be determined by the more dominant goaltender. If you're entering a big pool, we suggest betting on the Sens; many will be giving wholly unfavourable odds based on the record differences, but this is going seven games, and in the end, will be a close series. Our gut tells us Montreal; our heart says Ottawa.

Montreal in seven; Ottawa shows it was no fluke, but Price closes the door

Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Detroit Red Wings (A3)

We wouldn't suggest betting against Detroit, well, ever, but the deck really is stacked against it in this first-round matchup against a much better team in Tampa Bay. Detroit is a grizzled, old veteran team that has more playoff experience in its first line than the entire Lightning roster has combined. The Red Wings know what it takes to win; the problem is whether they still have it left in them. Their top playoff performers Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Niklas Kronwall and Justin Abdelkader are banged up, and it's uncertain if they'll suit up for the first game. Jimmy Howard has had a mediocre season in net, posting a 2.44 GAA/.910 SV% -- almost identical to the year previous where Detroit exited in the first round to Boston, 4-1. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay looks like a monster; aside from some key injuries on the blueline, which will pose some concerns about a deep run, the offense is healthy and potent. Led by elite sniper Steven Stamkos, the Lightning have two of the best scoring lines in the NHL and depth in their bottom six to contribute where necessary. Tampa Bay won the season series, 3-1-0, but Detroit finished the season strong at 8-2 in its last 10, including a 4-0 drubbing of the Lightning. In the end, we think the youth and vigor of Tampa Bay will overwhelm the Red Wings, and show them their second straight first-round exit.

Tampa Bay in six; Lightning are too fast and healthy for the Wings to handle

Washington Capitals (M2) vs. New York Islanders (M3)

Both teams had banner years, considering the previous season saw both on the outside looking in. This will be the highest scoring series in the first round, and one that will make or break a lot of boxed pools. Both play a run-and-gun offense, and both hold elite snipers and playmakers who will also make this the most fun to watch. Both have identical marks in team points with 101, and their head-to-head records are nearly identical: in their four games, only one was determined in regulation, with both winning two. While the Montreal-Ottawa series is likely to go to seven because of their defense and goaltending, we're expecting this one to go seven for quite the opposite reason -- take the "over" in each of the games for some relatively easy money. It's even money, in our opinion, as to who will win, but we think that Washington's better record down the stretch (6-3-1 vs. 4-3-3) combined with what we think is better goaltending and a better system, will be the determining factor. We don't suggest investing heavily in either team; no matter who wins, the Rangers will crush either in the next round.

Washington in seven. Islanders and Caps trade punches, but only one remains standing

Western Conference

Anaheim Ducks (P1) vs. Winnipeg Jets (W2)

This should be a fun series to watch if you're generally a hockey fan but, spoiler alert, it's not going to end well for Winnipeg. While the playoff drought in Manitoba is finally over, the Jets drew the short straw, and have to play a big, fast, skilled and experienced team in Anaheim. The Ducks are a multi-tooled monstrosity with depth at every position. Top-liners Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are at the peak of their careers and know what it takes to win the Cup. Under them are a plethora of big power forwards such as Ryan Kesler, Matt Beleskey, Kyle Palmieri and newcomer Jiri Sekac. Their defensive corps are young, but gifted; veteran Francois Beauchemin has more games played than Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen combined. Winnipeg likely will be overwhelmed in short order, and the statistics back us up on this: Anaheim won all three meetings this year. The bright side for Winnipeg: Anaheim has a completely anemic power play. If the Jets can play a punishing style, which they certainly should, Anaheim may have problems executing its game.

Anaheim in five; Ducks prove too much for Jets and cause mass disappointment in Manitoba

St. Louis Blues (C1) vs. Minnesota Wild (W1)

We're going to call this one straight up, because we find the story compelling: the Wild will pull off the upset. We don't actually think it's going to be all that close. Since adding Devan Dubnyk, the Wild are 28-9-2, second only to the Senators in that span. The Wild are incredibly stingy with their goals-against, and always have been; the start of the year was an aberration caused by erratic goaltending. While they split the head-to-head series, one of the Blues' wins was the last game of the season (otherwise known as the battle for who could care less). The last real game they played against one another was on March 21 in St. Louis, a 6-3 win for the Wild; prior, a 3-1 win for the Wild on March 14 in Minnesota. All signs point to the Wild having the upper hand. Due to the fact that the Blues have a superior record and more visibility, we think a lot of people will take them in big pools; there's definitely money to be made investing heavily in the underdog Wild, and we think it could bode well. The only problem will be watching this series is going to be really boring unless you live in either city and have something invested.

Minnesota in six; the superior Wild defense stifles the Blues in a boring but impressive upset

Nashville Predators (C2) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (C3)

This could be the best series in the West, though we'd be foolish to bet heavily on a winner. Unlike the other heavyweights in the league, who managed to get seemingly easier prey for the first round, the bloated Central Division will lay claim to one first-round exit that should not be. Nashville bounced back from a disappointing year last season to have one of the best turnarounds in recent memory. Filled with a number of good stories -- Filip Forsberg's ascension as an elite rookie, Pekka Rinne's Vezina-nominated performance, and the success of new coach Peter Laviolette -- the Predators hope to get out of the first round. Normally, we would think that a matchup against the Blackhawks would be a death sentence to any of the other teams in the league, but with a key injury to Patrick Kane, and a number of bumps and bruises on the rest of the lineup, it will be interesting to see what happens. Chicago holds the season series 3-1, but all four games were played with Kane in the lineup. We think this will go down the line; coin toss as to who wins the seventh game.

Chicago in seven; a hard back-and-forth battle between two heavyweights in the Central

Vancouver Canucks (P2) vs. Calgary Flames (P3)

As many Canadians have discovered, with four of the five Canadian teams playing each other, two are guaranteed to progress to the second round. Unfortunately, the consequence is that at least two also will be eliminated. Following the Ottawa/Montreal games, this will be the series we'll watch; there's a storied history of rivalry between the Canucks and the Flames to determine Western Canadian supremacy. We think it's going to be an interesting matchup. The Canucks have a number of veterans who have gone deep in the playoffs, and know how to find that next gear for the post-season; much of Calgary are young, fast, and skilled, and looking to set the pace early on. We think the battle lines will be drawn early. Vancouver will have to contain the speed of the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan; Calgary will have to combat the skill of the Sedins and Radim Vrbata without their best defenseman and leader Mark Giordano. If the Flames had their captain, we think this series would be a saw-off; because that's not the case, we think the Canucks hand the Flames a first-round exit after a well-contested series.

Vancouver in six; Calgary minus Giordano just isn't enough to stop the Cancuks