Wednesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, which has an average Rating of 49.0 per game. This represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it's also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average 31.5 shots on goal. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 57.5 (CAR) to a worst of 44.9 (VAN), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.8 (NSH) to a worst of 56.4 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.

I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Wednesday, November 19, 2018

The Main Slate on Wednesday has 14 games, so there's a good amount of everything on the slate as only three teams are sitting this one out (CLS, EDM & SJ). The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings.

Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line)

MIN1 vs. OTT: Eric Staal-1 ($7,100 FD, $6,300 DK), Mikael Granlund-1 ($7,000 FD, $6,600 DK), Jason Zucker-1 ($5,100 FD, $6,400 DK) - I think we've figured out by now that Ottawa is usually involved in high-scoring affairs, they give up the most goals in the league (4.19 per game) and their games average over a goal more per game (7.76) than the next highest team (Pittsburgh 6.74), it's no surprise they are dead last in my DR (57.6); I will continue to target their opponents, especially when Ottawa is on the road. That brings us to the Wild, who have a strong top-six set of forwards, and they continue to pair them in both even strength and power-play situations, so you can get correlated exposure from either group.

DAL1 at PIT: Jamie Benn-1 ($7,700 FD, $6,600 DK), Tyler Seguin-1 ($7,700 FD, $7,800 DK), Alexander Radulov-1 ($6,200 FD, $7,400 DK) - Dallas really laid an egg on Monday losing 2-1 to the defensively challenged Rangers, but that makes them a great bounce-back, low ownership candidate Wednesday night at Pittsburgh who has now lost nine out of 10, allowing 40 goals over that stretch.

TB1 vs. FLA: Nikita Kucherov-1 ($8,200 FD, $7,600 DK), Steven Stamkos-1 ($7,900 FD, $6,600 DK), J.T. Miller-1 ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK)
TB2 vs. FLA: Brayden Point-1 ($7,000 FD, $7,000 DK), Yanni Gourde-2 ($6,000 FD, $5,900 DK), Tyler Johnson-2 ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK) - For the first month of the season, Roberto Luongo looked like a Vezina Trophy candidate, but two bad starts in a row have brought him back down to earth and it isn't surprising when looking at Florida's defensive rating (51.4), the regression has hit hard over the past three games, during which Florida has allowed 17 goals. Tampa Bay is among the league leaders in offensive rating (51.2) so even with some pricey pieces on the Lightning's top two lines, this is a great game to target some of Tampa Bay's offense.

BUF1 vs. PHI: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,500 FD, $7,400 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($6,800 FD, $6,500 DK), Jason Pominville-2 ($4,700 FD, $5,600 DK) - This was my "Line of the Night" on Monday and even though they scored a goal and had four assists (counting Rasmus Ristolainen) it felt like a slight disappointment as Skinner only had just one assist and Pominville missed the scoresheet as Buffalo won 5-4 in overtime against Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is a better defensive team than Pittsburgh, but it appears as if the Flyers will be going with Alex Lyon in goal Wednesday, so I like Buffalo's situation at home.
Also in play: NSH1 vs STL, CGY1 vs WPG, WAS1 vs CHI, PIT1/2 vs DAL

VALUE LINE STACKS

MIN2 vs. OTT: Zach Parise-2 ($6,400 FD, $6,300 DK), Mikko Koivu-2 ($5,900 FD, $6,400 DK), Nino Niederreiter-2 ($4,600 FD, $4,200 DK) - See MIN1 write-up above.

VGK2 at ARI: Max Pacioretty-1 ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK), Alex Tuch-1 ($5,100 FD, $6,100 DK), Cody Eakin-2 ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK) - One of my main strategies is targeting second lines on the road and top lines at home, the reason being is that the home team gets the last chance to matchup on stoppages; so when VGK1 hits the ice, Arizona can use their better defensive units to slow down Jonathan Marchessault and crew, leaving VGK2 to get the lesser defensive units in the majority of their matchups. VGK2 has produced seven goals over the past five games and Arizona is a poor defensive team to begin with (49.9), so this matchup puts a hot line in a great spot Wednesday.

ANH1 vs. VAN: Rickard Rakell-1 ($7,200 FD, $5,900 DK), Ryan Getzlaf-1 ($6,900 FD, $6,000 DK), Ondrej Kase-2 ($3,000 FD, $5,100 DK) - This is a smash spot for ANH1, Getzlaf has been solid (five goals, nine assists in 16 games) and Kase offers a great value option on FanDuel (5.25 shots per game with a goal in four games this year), however Rakell needs to get rolling and this looks like a spot he should do it. Rakell is a career 12.8% shooter and has only scored three goals on 66 shots (4.5%) this year; 10 assists in 22 games has kept him at least serviceable in fantasy, but the goals need to start coming. This is a weird salary situation, if you want to cut a spot here I would go with Getzlaf/Kase on FanDuel and Getzlaf/Rakell on DraftKings.

Also in play: ARI1/2 vs VGK, TOR2 at CAR

Solo Forward Options

Nathan MacKinnon-1 COL1 at LA ($8,600 FD, $8,100 DK) - MacKinnon may be the best player in hockey, with 13 goals, 16 assists and 87 shots in 20 games he matches or exceeds Connor McDavid in all three categories.

Taylor Hall-1 NJ1 vs. MON ($7,800 FD, $7,500 DK) - Montreal has not played all that well defensively of late (30 goals allowed in last seven games) so NJ1 might be a nice contrarian stack for the night, but Hall can be played by himself almost any night for a nice filler piece with other options.

Matthew Tkachuk-1 CGY2 vs. WPG ($6,400 FD, $5,400 DK) - Winnipeg has been playing well recently, but most of those games were after getting a full week rest following a pair of games in Finland, they are now entering a gauntlet of tough upcoming games and I think they will show some cracks Wednesday in Calgary where Tkachuk and CGY1 should be solid options that will likely be under owned.

Tanner Pearson-2 PIT2 vs. DAL ($3,800 FD, $4,000 DK) - Cheap exposure to Malkin/Kessel at home, sign me up. With a goal, an assist and four shots Monday against Buffalo, Pittsburgh looks like it made a great trade flipping Carl Hagelin for Pearson, who was languishing on a terrible Kings offense in Los Angeles.

Anthony Cirelli-0 TB3 vs. FLA ($3,500 FD, $3,900 DK) - There are not a lot of great cheap center options, but Cirelli is a guy I've been keeping an eye on in recent games and I think he might be in a good spot Wednesday; with two goals, two assists, 15 shots and seven blocked shots in the last eight games, there's some potential here for a 20-point FanDuel or 5-point DraftKings night, which would be huge for the price.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward)

Mathew Dumba-2 MIN vs. OTT ($5,500 FD, $6,000 DK) - Dumba continues to be one of my favorite options when Minnesota has a good matchup -- home against Ottawa is THE best matchup in the league, so Dumba will be popular on my rosters Wednesday. Eight goals, five assists and over three shots per game are great numbers through 21 games for a defenseman, the only knock on Dumba is that Ryan Suter draws the top line power play duties.

Ryan Suter-1 MIN vs. OTT ($5,400 FD, $5,100 DK) - Suter is in play Wednesday as well and may be a better value on DraftKings. Suter has not had quite the fantasy year that Dumba has (three goals, 12 assists), but he appears to be settling into being more of a passer than a shooter as he is on a near career-high pace in assists and his shots per game average (1.5) is down from his 2.1-per game mark in the three previous seasons.

Rasmus Ristolainen-2 BUF vs. PHI ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK) - On Monday, I said Ristolainen preferred the open game that he was going to get against Pittsburgh and he came through with a pair of assists; Wednesday night against Philadelphia doesn't offer quite the upside potential, but it a good spot again nonetheless, and I will be using him with my Buffalo stacks.

Esa Lindell-1 DAL at PIT ($4,200 FD, $4,400 DK) - Ottawa is the worst defense in hockey, but Pittsburgh is trying to give them a run for their money, allowing 40 goals in their last 10 games. Lindell draws the top power-play spot on the blue line, so if you use DAL1, he is the guy you want to pair with the group.

Colin Miller-1 VGK at ARI ($4,400 FD, $4,300 DK) - Miller and Shea Theodore have both been pretty good recently (six assists combined in last three games), but I will be targeting Miller to pair with Alex Tuch/Max Pacioretty on the top Vegas power-play unit.

Brandon Montour-1 ANH vs. VAN ($4,200 FD, $4,300 DK) - Montour has welcomed the extra minutes and responsibility put upon him following the injury suffered by Cam Fowler; in the past two games Montour is averaging 27 minutes, four-and-a-half shots, four blocks, and has a goal and a pair of assists -- and he did it while being sub-$4,000 on FanDuel.

Also in play: Mark Giordano-1 CGY vs. WPG ($5,800 FD, $6,300 DK), Shea Theodore-2 VGK at ARI ($4,700 FD, $4,700 DK), Jamie Oleksiak-2 PIT vs. DAL ($3,600 FD, $3,400 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Frederik Andersen TOR at CAR ($8,900 FD, $8,200 DK) - Carolina can sneak up and have a good game from time to time but they fire a ton of shots (40.3) and are scoring at a pathetic rate (6.5%), so Andersen is in great position to have a monster game here. I said he had a shot at 40+ in FanDuel on Monday, he just missed that even though he gave up two early goals, I'm doubling down Wednesday and saying he's a lock for 40+ on FanDuel (10+ on DraftKings).

John Gibson ANH vs. VAN ($8,200 FD, $8,400 DK) - This is a great spot for Gibson, as Vancouver is a poor offensive team, but Anaheim is a poor defensive team, so the saves should be there for Gibson, while it's still possible that he'll keep the goals down and be in a great spot for a victory.

Carter Hutton BUF vs. PHI ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK) - Buffalo has won six in a row, with Hutton recording five of those victories, and they have not allowed more than three goals at home in six weeks. The Flyers have a great top line, but their secondary lines are nothing special, if Buffalo focuses on shutting down the Giroux/Couturier line, there is a good score waiting here for Hutton.

Calvin Petersen LA vs. COL ($7,400 FD, $6,800 DK) - I'm still not 100% sure what we have in Petersen, and there's a chance that Peter Budaj starts Wednesday night, but if Petersen is in net this looks like a nice salary saver on both sites. In three starts, Petersen has recorded a pair of wins, a shutout and a .953 SV% -- Colorado does not take a lot of shots (30.1 per game) but they are effective shots (11.5% shooting) so this may be somewhat of a trap play, but at home against a .500 Colorado team is a spot I'll gamble on in a few spots at this price.

Also in play: Pekka Rinne NSH vs. STL ($9,200 FD, $8,500 DK), Jimmy Howard DET vs. BOS ($8,500 FD, $7,400 DK)