This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Paris DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Paris takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350K UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Renato Moicano (19-5-1) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (13-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Moicano ($7,200), Saint-Denis ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Moicano (+220), Saint-Denis (-270)
A winner in five of his first six UFC bouts, Saint-Denis got a significant step up in competition last time out against Dustin Poirier in March and ended up getting knocked out midway through Round 2 after an excellent opening frame. There have been rumblings BSD was dealing with an illness leading up to the fight and knew full well he wouldn't be able to go very long in a bout which was scheduled for five rounds. As a result, he pushed the pace from the very start and ended up getting finished when his usually-elite gas tank began to fade.
Speaking of deserving a step up in competition, Moicano certainly falls into that category with victories in five of his last six. His most recent fight was a knockout over a very tough customer in Jalin Turner at UFC 300 in April. He rarely gets talked about, but Moicano has been an excellent lightweight for years. His 3-4 record in a seven-fight span from July 2017 to December 2020 seems terrifying on paper, then you look and you see the setbacks came against Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, The Korean Zombie and Rafael Fiziev, and it doesn't look so bad.
Both these men are used to having a significant size advantage over their opposition. That won't be the case for either here. Both check in at 5-foot-11, while BSD will have a very slight one-inch reach edge.
My main knock on Moicano has long been the lack of stopping power in his hands. In fact, that knockout of Turner was the first of his professional career in his 25th pro bout. As impressive as it was, I'm going to side with history here and say that outcome was an aberration as opposed to a sign of things to come. Renato has never looked better, but I don't see him making any significant additions to his game given the fact he turned 35 years of age in May.
Moicano is a sneaky wrestler. He can pick up a well-timed takedown here and there, but it almost always comes against opponents that are pure strikers. In other words, he reacts well to whomever he is facing that particular evening.
I don't see him going that route against Saint-Denis. Benoit is averaging a ridiculous 4.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's incredibly strong and nearly impossible to defend once he wraps his arms around you. Heck, he got Poirier to the mat three times in just over seven minutes.
This fight feels closer than the DK salaries and Vegas odds would lead you to believe, but in the end, I think they got it correct.
I'm willing to give Saint-Denis a pass for the Dustin fight and assume it was the illness which led to his gassing out. We've seen him put forth elite cardio performances in the past, and I have a difficult time believing that part of his game suddenly evaporated. BSD is going to have to be careful regarding leaving a limb exposed because Renato can make you pay in an instant, but I think Saint-Denis is the better all-around fighter. He's also going to have the crowd behind him, which seems like it will make a massive difference given his hard-nose style.
THE PICK: Saint-Denis
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov (14-4-0, 1NC) v. Brendan Allen (24-5-0)
DK Salaries: Imavov ($8,900), Allen ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Imavov (-225), Allen (+185)
The UFC rarely comes to Paris, and it's understandable the company wanted to load up the card a bit, but this is a truly excellent fight. It would have been great to see it scheduled as a five-round main event for one of the Apex Fight Nights.
Imavov lost his second UFC bout to Phil Hawes via majority decision. He's 5-1 (1NC) in seven fights since, with the one setback coming against Sean Strickland at 205 pounds. His last two wins are over Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze. Imavov has some work to do to be considered among the elite at 185 pounds, but he's not far off. A win over Allen would go a long way to sending him climbing up the rankings.
Regular readers of this column will note I've been an Allen fan for quite a while. He's always been underrated, and he's just finally starting to get the recognition he deserves. Allen has won seven in a row, including five of those via submission, specifically via rear-naked choke. That said, his best in that stretch was his most recent over Chris Curtis (getting revenge for an earlier defeat to "The Action Man"), and that came via split decision. In terms of competition level faced, the edge goes to Imavov.
Much like the main event, these are two guys that are used to having the size advantage over their opposition. Neither will have one here. Imavov is 6-foot-3, Allen is 6-foot-2. Both have a 75-inch reach.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about Allen's increasing reliance on his ground game. Submissions are notoriously difficult to predict, especially against better opposition. Allen, while a fine wrestler, isn't an elite takedown specialist. He lands 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes. He did get Curtis -- who has notoriously excellent takedown defense -- to the mat six times, and it ended up winning him the fight. He needs to go a similar route here.
Imavov is a sniper on the feet. He's a far more technical striker than Allen. He's deadly in open space and offers far more variety in terms of his striking attacks. He can even pile up volume when necessary. In other words, all of this is a massive problem for Allen, who tends to be a pure brawler on the feet. He'll eat a strike in order to land two of his own, which is absolutely the wrong strategy against a guy with much more technical stand-up ability.
Maybe Allen can rack up a ton of control time or take advantage of a mistake by Imavov on the mat, but I think he's going to eat too much volume from Imavov on the feet, and that's an issue when the crowd is going to be going nuts every time the other guy lands a strike. I think Imavov takes a decision.
THE PICK: Imavov
Featherweight
William Gomis (13-2-0) v. Joanderson Brito (17-3-1)
DK Salaries: Gomis ($7,000), Brito ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Gomis (+220), Brito (-270)
A native of the French regional scene, Gomis arrived in the UFC about two years ago and has gone 3-0 with the company, taking decisions over Jarno Errens and Francis Marshall, in addition to a knockout over Yanis Ghemmouri in his most recent bout last September. To say Brito will be his stiffest test to date is the understatement of the century.
Brito has won his last five dating back to April 2022, with each of those victories coming via stoppage. He has three knockouts and two submissions during that stretch and none of the five bouts have seen a final frame. Three of them ended in Round 1. With victories over the likes of Jack Shore, Jonathan Pearce and and Andre Fili, Brito has been handling far better competition than Gomis has seen to date.
The Brazilian is an all-around threat. The power is legitimate, he's skilled on the mat, and he can grapple. Brito is averaging 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing a ridiculous 76 percent of his attempts. The latter number is about as high as you will ever see and indicates Joanderson possesses excellent fight IQ, in addition to obviously being very physically gifted.
Outside of the fact he has a home game here, I'm having trouble finding reasons to be optimistic about Gomis going forward. The subpar competition he has faced to date is a concern. He doesn't get hit much (1.49 significant strikes per minute), but that number seems very deceiving. You usually only see defensive numbers that strong when a guy is an elite wrestler. Gomis doesn't fit into that category. He's landed just three takedowns in his UFC career, and all of them came in his debut against Errens, a one-dimensional boxer with notoriously terrible takedown defense.
His offensive output -- 2.62 significant stirkes landed per minute -- is low. He is four inches taller than Brito and will enter with a one-inch reach edge, but I don't think either of those numbers will help make up for the massive difference in physical ability between these two.
Perhaps having the French crowd behind him will give Gomis an unexpected boost and he will be more competitive than I think, but from where I'm sitting, Brito should probably be favored even more heavily than he is. I like him a ton this week.
THE PICK: Brito
Lightweight
Fares Ziam (15-4-0) v. Matt Frevola (11-4-1)
DK Salaries: Ziam ($8,000), Frevola ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Ziam (-120), Frevola (+100)
Now 34 years of age, Frevola has had a far better UFC run than I ever would have expected. His time with the company appeared to be on life support following back-to-back knockout losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Terrance McKinney back in 2021, but he rebounded with three straight knockout wins of his own, shocking results for a guy that is typically viewed as having limited power. Frevola was predictably quickly finished by Saint-Denis his last time out last November at Madison Square Garden.
Ziam has been better than Frevola of late, going 5-1 in his last six dating back to October 2020. All five wins have come via decision and the defeat was a submission loss at the hands of McKinney. Ziam's most recent victory was a split decision over Claudio Puelles in February. He was lucky to emerge victorious considering he allowed seven takedowns for 7:14 worth of control time in the 15-minute bout.
Like his fellow countryman Gomis, the advanced numbers appear to provide little hope for Ziam moving forward. In seven UFC bouts -- six of which have seen the final bell -- he has never landed more than 60 significant strikes.
The low output is a concern, as are the grappling struggles. Ziam averages just 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he's given up all least three takedowns on three separate occasions with the company. I wouldn't call Frevola an offensive wrestler by any means, but he can sneak a takedown here and there if you aren't paying attention, and that may very well be enough in a fight which essentially projects as close to a pick 'em most everywhere else.
Going against Ziam is scary because you would figure he's going to have an edge on the scorecards if this fight is remotely up in the air, but he simply has too many question marks to back him, even in what on paper looks like a potentially favorable spot.
THE PICK: Frevola
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Kevin Jousset (10-2-0) v. Bryan Battle (11-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jousset ($7.700), Battle ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Jousset (+155), Battle (-185)
THE PICK: Battle
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere (19-10-1) v. Gabriel Miranda (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Charriere ($9,500), Miranda ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Charriere (-600), Miranda (+440)
THE PICK: Charriere
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1, 1NC) v. Ivan Erslan (14-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Cutelaba ($8,300), Esrlan ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Cutelaba (-120), Esrlan (+100)
THE PICK: Esrlan
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy (10-0-0) v. Da Woon Jung (15-5-1)
DK Salaries: Sy ($9,400), Jung ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Sy (-500), Jung (+340)
THE PICK: Sy
Lightweight
L'udovit Klein (22-4-1) v. Roosevelt Roberts (12-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Klein ($9,600), Roberts ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Klein (-800), Roberts (+550)
THE PICK: Klein
Bantamweight
Taylor Lapilus (20-4-0) v. Vince Morales (16-7-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Lapilus (-355), Morales (+280)
THE PICK: Lapilus
Women's Bantamweight
Darya Zheleznyakova (9-1-0) v. Ailin Perez (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Zheleznyakova ($7,100), Perez ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Zheleznyakova (+220), Perez (-270)
THE PICK: Zhelezniakova
Flyweight
Daniel Barez (16-6-0) v. Victor Altamirano (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Barez ($8,400), Altamirano ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Barez (+100), Altamirano (-120)
THE PICK: Barez
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle (8-1-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Cornolle (+160), Cavalcanti (-210)
THE PICK: Cavalcanti
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki (9-1-0) v. Chris Duncan (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Oki ($8,800), Duncan ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Oki (-205), Duncan (+170)
THE PICK: Oki
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Paris with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
