This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 56 takes place Saturday at the Apex Center, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the key fights and offer his DFS picks, including a heavyweight main event.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov (34-10-0) v. Jair Rozenstruik (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Volkov ($8,600), Rozenstruik ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Volkov (-150), Rozenstruik (+130)
Odds to Finish: -150
Volkov is one of the best heavyweights in the world today and has been for quite some time, but he's been barely treading water for the better part of the past four-plus years, and this feels like a fight he has to have if he wishes to remain on the fringes of title contention. Volkov has lost two of his last three fights. He dropped a unanimous decision to Cyril Gane in June 2021, rebounded to take a unanimous decision from Marcin Tybura four months later and was then submitted by Tom Aspinall in under four minutes just a few months ago.
Rozenstruik finds himself in a similar situation, having alternated losses and wins in his past five fights dating back to May 2020. The one thing Jair has going for him is that those three defeats came against Gane, Curtis Blaydes and current UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou -- arguably the three best fighters in the division today.
Volkov has underrated secondary skills, but he is primarily a one-dimensional kickboxer. He's massive for the division at 6-foot-7 and excels at putting distance between himself and his opponent on the feet. He enters with a five-inch edge in height and a two-inch edge in reach, and I expect he will be able to do whatever he wants on the feet as long as he is able to avoid the power strikes of Rozenstruik.
It comes as no surprise that Jair has struggled, as the competition has gone up against has improved. He's extremely tough, but Rozenstruik is simply entering the Octagon in hopes of knocking his opposition out with power shots. He displays little head movement, zero footwork and has no ground game to speak of. There's enough here to get past fringe-roster fighters, but that's about where it ends.
This seems like an excellent matchup for Volkov from a stylistic standpoint. Not only is he the bigger man, but he will have an overwhelming technical edge on the feet and should also have considerably better cardio. Rozenstruik hasn't landed a takedown in his UFC career, so Volkov won't have to worry about that.
Everything seems about right here, with a long-shot bet on Jair being nothing more than hoping he lands a big power shot and scores a knockout. I think Volkov lands plenty of volume and wins a comfortable decision.
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Volkov
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Dan Ige (15-5-0) v. Movsar Evloev (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Ige ($6,800), Evloev ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Ige (+290), Evloev (-380)
Odds to Finish: +225
Ige made a name for himself beating up on lesser competition (plus an aging Edson Barboza), but he has really struggled of late, posting a 1-3 mark in his past four fights. He had won six straight prior to that, although a couple of those fights, including the Barboza win, came via split decision. Ige is tough as nails and has fast hands. He's a volume-over-power guy on the feet, and is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. His secondary offensive skills are better than he gets credit for, but Ige needs to land consistent strikes in order to win.
The surging Evloev has won all five of his UFC bouts, all via decision. He was originally scheduled to face fellow young stud Ilia Topuria this past January before he was forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID test. The only knock on Movsar to this point is that he has been unable to stop his competition. Unlike Ige, everything Evloev does revolves around his elite wrestling game. He's averaging exactly four takedowns per 15 minutes and has scored no fewer than two takedowns in each of his five bouts with the company. Evolov possesses the upper-body strength to keep his opponent pinned to the mat if he is able to get them there, and that's why we're seeing him rack up a bunch of lopsided decisions.
Ige is going to have to do everything in his power to remain upright here. He's primarily a boxer to begin with, but he better be careful about tossing lazy kicks out there, because Evloev will catch them and plant him on the mat in an instant.
I'm not completely surprised that the DK salaries and Vegas odds are as lopsided as they are considering you have two fighters trending in completely opposite directions.
That said, although I don't think he wins, Ige could very easily prove to be a value play. He's proven time and time again that he can take a beating and he should have a puncher's chance of pulling the upset if he is able to stuff Evloev's takedown attempts. Of course, Evloev is so good that it's just as likely he puts his head down, pushes forward and controls Ige in the grappling game for 15 minutes en route to an easy decision. The fact this fight is scheduled for three rounds almost certainly favors Movsar.
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Evloev
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig (14-9-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-7-0)
DK Salaries: Herrig ($8,300), Kowalkiewicz ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Herrig (-120), Kowalkiewicz (+100)
Odds to Finish: +200
This will be a rematch of an April 2018 fight which Kowalkiewicz won via split decision. These two women have combined to drop eight bouts in a row, and it's a near certainty the loser will be sent packing.
To give you an idea of how poorly it has gone for Karolina of late, that victory over Herrig was her last win. She's lost five fights in a row since (one submission, one knockout, three unanimous decisions) and hasn't been particularly competitive in any of them. Kowalkiewicz's biggest issue is that she is a stand-up fight with little power. She lacks secondary offensive skills and gets hit far too much on the feet. Karolina absorbs an astronomical 5.56 significant strikes per minute, and a fighter simply cannot win consistently when their defense is lacking to that degree.
It has gone no better for Herrig, who enters have lost three in a row. Her last win -- a split decision over Cortney Casey in December 2017 -- came one bout before she faced Kowalkiewicz the first time around. Felice is a pretty big "name," but outside of a unanimous decision win over Alexa Grasso in February 2017, she has never beaten anyone halfway decent, let alone good.
If this fight mirrors the first bout between the two, Herrig is in trouble. Karolina was the far more effective striker in that bout, landing 50 percent of her significant strikes (126/248) compared to 39 percent (86/216) from Felice. The two women combined to fail on all eight of their takedown attempts.
Herrig is going to have a significant upper-body strength advantage, but I think that's about it. Felice will turn 38 years of age in September, while Karolina will be 37 years old in October. Both women are clearly on the back-nine of their respective careers.
Toss in the fact Herrig has been on the sidelines for nearly two years, and I'll take the minor value Kowalkiewicz provides (albeit with little confidence in a fight which has a vast range of potential outcomes).
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Kowalkiewicz
Women's Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (8-1-0) v. JJ Aldrich (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Blanchfield ($9,600), Aldrich ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Blanchfield (-475), Aldrich (+350)
Odds to Finish: +165
One of the youngest fighters on the UFC roster at age 23, Blanchfield has looking unstoppable in her first two bouts with the company, blowing past Miranda Maverick and Sarah Alpar in a pair of unanimous decision victories. Blanchfield's only professional defeat came via split decision against fellow UFC fighter Tracy Cortez back in early 2019 during their time in Invicta.
Aldrich has quietly won three in a row and four of five dating back to October 2019. All four of those victories have come via decision, as has each of Aldrich's seven victories with the company. There's a high probability Aldrich's inability to stop her competition will come back to haunt her over the long run, but it hasn't yet.
Blanchfield's calling card has been her wrestling. She got Maverick to the mat five times, while connecting on three takedowns against Alpar. She has excellent cardio and her pace alone is going to give her opposition all kinds of trouble regardless of whether the takedowns land or not. Maverick is another fighter who employs the same exact style, and Blanchfield blew her out of the water.
Aldrich has no chance in this fight if she can't remain upright. She's not going to finish Blanchfield on the feet, so it's imperative she keep this fight standing and hope to outpoint her in a striking battle. JJ's 72-percent takedown defense is just fine, but she has found herself on the mat in four of her ten UFC bouts, so she's been far from flawless in that area.
Simply put, Blanchfield looks like one of the best young female prospects in the sport, while Aldrich -- while successful -- has a limited offensive arsenal and no clear path to victory in this fight. I'm not even totally sure she would be able to win a 15-minute kickboxing match from Erin.
Blanchfield's salary is ridiculous, but she could very well pay off. Aldrich has been durable throughout the course of her career, and I could most certainly see a scenario in which Blanchfield picks up a boatload of takedowns and fires off a ton of ground-and-pound, and Aldrich still manages to see the final bell.
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Blanchfield
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Mike Trizano (10-2-0) v. Lucas Almeida (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Trizano ($9,100), Almeida ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Trizano (-225), Almeida (+185)
Odds to Finish: +125
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Trizano
Women's Flyweight
Karine Silva (14-4-0) v. Poliana Botelho (8-4-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($8,200), Botelho ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-120), Botelho (+100)
Odds to Finish: +110
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Botelho
Flyweight
Ode Osbourne (10-4-0, 1NC) v. Zarrukh Adashev (4-3-0)
DK Salaries: Osbourne ($8,900), Adashev ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Osbourne (-180), Adashev (+155)
Odds to Finish: -125
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Osbourne
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (11-3-0) v. Askar Mozharov (21-11-0)
DK Salaries: Menifield ($8,700), Mozharov ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Menifield (-160), Mozharov (+140)
Odds to Finish: -750
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Menifield
Lightweight
Joe Solecki (11-3-0) v. Alex da Silva (21-3-0)
DK Salaries: Solecki ($8,800), Da Silva ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Solecki (-170), Da Silva (+150)
Odds to Finish: -115
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Solecki
Featherweight
Damon Jackson (20-4-1) v. Daniel Argueta (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: TBD
Vegas Odds: Jackson (-400), Argueto (+310)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Jackson
Lightweight
Niklas Stolze (12-5-0) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (8-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Stolze ($7,700), Saint Denis ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Stolze (+135), Saint Denis (-155)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Saint Denis
Bantamweight
Johnny Munoz (11-1-0) v. Tony Gravely (22-7-0)
DK Salaries: Munoz ($7,800), Gravely ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Munoz (+110), Gravely (-130)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Munoz
Flyweight
Jeff Molina (10-2-0) v. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Molina ($9,000), Zhumagulov ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Molina (-180), Zhumagulov (+155)
Odds to Finish: +130
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Molina
Welterweight
Rinat Fakhretdinov (18-1-0) v. Andreas Michailidis (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Fakhretdinov ($9,200), Michailidis ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Fakhretdinov (-280), Michailidis (+225)
UFC VEGAS 56 PICK: Fakhretdinov
