This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 66 takes place Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Jared Cannonier (15-6-0) v. Sean Strickland (25-4-0)
DK Salaries: Cannonier ($7,700), Strickland ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Cannonnier (-105), Strickland (-115)
Odds to Finish: -105
This fight was scheduled to take place a couple months ago before Strickland suffered a finger infection which cause it to be postponed.
Both of these guys are coming off ugly, lopsided defeats, and neither can afford a second straight loss in a deceptively-stacked middleweight division.
Cannonier finally got his shot at UFC gold against Israel Adesanya at UFC 276 in early-July. It did not go well. As expected, the champion's length and athleticism edge on the feet gave Cannonier all sorts of issues. Now 38 years of age, Jared has wins over decent competition such as Jack Hermansson and Derek Brunson, but he has struggled against the likes of Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. Everything is gravy for Cannonier at this point considering he made his UFC debut in January 2015 as nothing more than roster depth, and that was at heavyweight (!!!).
Strickland had won six straight before a first-round knockout defeat to Alex Pereira in July. Strickland seemed out of sorts from the very start, struggling with Pereira's power. Of course, that loss doesn't seem all that bad right about now.
Something will have to give here. Cannonier tends to be an aggressive fighter that likes to push the pace and remain active. Strickland, on the other hand, prefers to sit back and counter and work behind his jab. I would give Jared the power edge, while Sean should have the edge in terms of technical ability.
We've seen Cannonier fare well in the latter stages of bouts, while Strickland can fight all day. If Jared gets lazy with his entries and Sean is allowed to counter, Cannonier is in trouble. However, we saw Strickland crumble under the pressure of Pereira, so he's far from invincible.
I don't have a particularly strong feel for this fight either way. Ultimately, I would rather bet on the technical skill of Strickland than the power, but I don't feel great about it. Cannonier seems like the better DK play considering he's $800 cheaper. I don't understand that gap at all.
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Strickland
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0) v. Damir Ismagulov (24-1-0)
DK Salaries: Tsarukyan ($8,900), Ismagulov ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Tsarukyan (-190), Ismagulov (+160)
Odds to Finish: +155
This projects to be the best fight on the entire card by a considerable margin. It's one I've been looking forward to for months.
A winner of five of his last six, Tsarukyan is fresh off a unanimous decision setback to Mateusz Gamrot in his first main event appearance in late-June. It was a back-and-forth battle, and Tsarukyan may have very well deserved to have emerge victorious. Still just 26 years of age, Arman is an excellent all-around fighter with high-end upside.
Ismagulov lost his sixth professional fight in September 2015. He hasn't tasted defeat since. He's a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, with all five wins coming via decision. Damir has excellent power, can wrestle if needed and is tremendously durable. He'll will be 32 years of age in early-February, so the UFC should continue to push him in order to see what exactly the company has on its hands here.
Something will have to give in this fight because these are two fighters that typically absorb shockingly little punishment during their respective bouts. Ismagulov eats just 2.56 significant strikes per minute, while Tsarukyan, because of his wrestling and all the time he spends in top position, is all the way down at 1.86 per 60 seconds.
Tsarukyan is the more likely of the two to attempt to get this fight to the mat. He averages 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. It would seem to be an especially wise idea in a bout in which Ismagulov enters with a three-inch edge in height and two-inch edge in reach. It will be easier said than done, however, given Damir's brilliant 90 percent takedown defense.
Ismagulov would be best served to make this an ugly brawl considering he's three inches taller and enters with a two-inch reach edge, but Ismagulov is nearly five years younger and the better athlete. It's easier said than done.
I expect a close, competitive bout in which Tsarukyan emerges victorious.
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Tsarukyan
Featherweight
Alex Caceres (19-13-0, 1NC) v. Julian Erosa (28-10-0)
DK Salaries: Caceres ($7,400), Erosa ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Caceres (+140), Erosa (-165)
Odds to Finish: +125
Few fighters on the UFC roster are as inconsistent as Caceres. We've seen some brilliant performances from him. We've also seen plenty of stinkers. Caceres, now 34 years of age, had a five-fight winning streak snapped in a unanimous decision defeat to Sodiq Yusuff last March. Caceres' main issue has been his inability to threaten his opposition on the feet. He doesn't have a knockout victory in more than five and a half years, and his last one came via doctor's stoppage.
Erosa has been released from the UFC on two separate occasions before working his way back to the company. He's in the midst of his best run to date, winning five of six dating back to June 2020, with three of the five coming via knockout. His opponents in his last two bouts -- Hakeem Dawodu and Steven Peterson -- each missed weight, and Julian still emerged victorious. It's a testament to Erosa's grit and determination, which mirrors the way he fights inside the Octagon. It's a great story that should be talked about more than it has been.
The biggest thing that stands out in this fight is the size of each man. Both are massive featherweights. Caceres stands 5-foot-10, while Erosa is 6-foot-1. Erosa will have an inch edge in reach. Alex isn't used to being the smaller man, and I'm curious how he will go about attempting to attack his larger opponent.
Erosa's issues inside the Octagon are two-fold. First, he's a below-average athlete. He offers little explosiveness, meaning he can't afford to fall behind on the scorecards. Second, he's reckless. In many ways that's to be expected given his toughness and aggressiveness.
I don't understand the DK salaries and Vegas odds for this one at all. Caceres is by no means a contender or anything like that, but I completely fail to see how Erosa is $1,400 better than him. Even if I thought Erosa was the better fighter, which I'm not sure of, I'm much, much more interested in rolling the dice with "Bruce Leeroy" as an underdog considering the potential payoff.
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Caceres
Welterweight
Jake Matthews (18-5-0) v. Matthew Semelsberger (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Matthews ($9,200), Semelsberger ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-250), Semelsberger (+210)
Odds to Finish: +115
Viewed as one of the brightest prospects in the history of the sport early in his career, Matthews is now 28 years of age. He has considerably more ability than his 11-5 career record with the company would lead you to believe. He's also fought primarily overseas, having competed just twice in the United States. Matthews is good, but he's typically always struggled against better competition, and he's most certainly not as far along in his career as I would have thought when he debuted with the UFC in June 2014.
Semelsberger has just a half-dozen UFC bouts under his belt, sporting a 4-2 mark. Semelsberger has fought two halfway decent opponents -- Alex Morono and Khaos Williams -- and he dropped unanimous decisions in both. Semelsberger has a good frame for the division and is deceptively athletic, but he, too, is reckless on the feet, and you simply aren't going to be able to compete against better opposition without a more structured game plan.
Semelsberger is the bigger man, but Matthews laps him in athleticism and all-around ability. Semelsberger does his best work when he can get inside, limit his opponent's space and control the fight from the clinch, but I reckon Jake is too experienced and too talented to play that game.
It's difficult to envision a path to victory for Semelsberger here. He tends to absorb far too much damage on the feet (5.17 significant strikes per minute), so he should, theoretically, be careful about engaging Matthews in a kickboxing match. Of course, Matthews is still going to have a strength advantage and should be able to control this fight on the mat, as well.
This is an easy pick, by far the easiest of the four fights I have written up in detail here.
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Matthews
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Amir Albazi (15-1-0) v. Alessandro Costa (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Albazi ($9,600), Costa ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Albazi (-435), Costa (+360)
Odds to Finish: -200
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Albazi
Lightweight
Drew Dober (25-11-0, 1NC) v. Bobby Green (29-13-1)
DK Salaries: Dober ($8,600), Green ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Dober (-150), Green (+130)
Odds to Finish: +115
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Dober
Middleweight
Cody Brundage (8-2-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (17-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Brundage ($6,800), Oleksiejczuk ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Brundage (+230), Oleksiejczuk (-275)
Odds to Finish: -275
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Oleksiejczuk
Women's Strawweight
Cheyanne Vlismas (7-2-0) v. Cory McKenna (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vlismas ($9,000), McKenna ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Vlismas (-190), McKenna (+160)
Odds to Finish: +200
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Vlismas
Middleweight
Julian Marquez (9-3-0) v. Deron Winn (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Marquez ($8,700), Winn ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Marquez (-170), Winn (+140)
Odds to Finish: -200
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Marquez
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov (16-2-0) v. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($8,200), Kakhramonov ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-110), Kakhramonov (-110)
Odds to Finish: +100
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Kakhramonov
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (14-3-0) v. Hayisaer Maheshate (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($8,400), Maheshate ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (-130), Maheshate (+110)
Odds to Finish: +135
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Maheshate
Welterweight
Bryan Battle (9-1-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (19-1-0)
DK Salaries: Battle ($7,900), Fakhretdinov ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Battle (+115), Fakhretdinov (-135)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Fakhretdinov
Flyweight
David Dvorak (20-4-0) v. Manel Kape (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Dvorak ($7,100), Kape ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Dvorak (+200), Kape (-240)
Odds to Finish: -130
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Kape
Bantamweight
Sergey Morozov (18-5-0) v. Journey Newson (10-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Morozov ($9,300), Newson ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Morozov (-280), Newson (+235)
Odds to Finish: -115
UFC VEGAS 66 PICK: Morozov
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 66 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
