This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 91 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 91 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) v. Alex Perez (24-8-0)
DK Salaries: Nicolau ($8,700), Perez ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Nicolau (-185), Perez (+155)
Nicolau was scheduled to face Manel Kape here, which would have been the third time those two were booked to fight. The latter stepped aside again, this time due to a rib injury, and Perez entered on about a month's notice.
Nicolau's four-fight winning streak was snapped in a knockout loss to Brandon Royval (who just defeated/temporarily retired Brandon Moreno) in his most recent bout last April. Matheus is now 7-2 in nine fights with the UFC over the course of two different stints with the company, and while he may not be a true threat to the top flyweights on the roster, he makes for pretty valuable depth.
Perez settled into "gatekeeper" status long ago. He enters on a three-fight losing streak, although those setbacks came against a current champion is Alexandre Pantoja, a former champion in Deiveson Figueiredo, and a top prospect in Muhammad Mokaev, so the struggles are understandable. That said, you are what your record says you are in this sport, and now 32 years of age, I could see the UFC cutting bait if Alex no-shows this fight.
This is a difficult fight to break down because neither man has one standout skill. They're both competent all-around fighters, but I don't feel all that comfortable backing either man.
I definitely think Nicolau has the edge in terms of pure power, but his volume on the feet is lacking at times. In his three most recent fights which went the distance, he landed 36 significant strikes against David Dvorak, 64 against Tim Elliott, and 55 against Kape. Those are middling numbers for a flyweight division which is about pace and work ethic.
Perez is even less trust worthy because six of his last eight fights have ended in Round 1. I saw that number and had to triple check it because I couldn't believe it. Nicolau isn't on the same level as Pantoja, Figueiredo or Mokaev, but he's a fringe top-five guy at 125 pounds. Perez's best chance of winning here would seem to be outworking Matheus late, but Alex has fought into the second round just once since January 2020, and that was his most recent fight against Mokaev. Are we actually sure he has the gas tank to steal this fight on the scorecards in the championship rounds if it gets there?
The DK salaries and Vegas odds for both men seem about right. Nicolau has looked far better of late and deserves to be the favorite. I don't love either guy at his price tag, especially on a full 13-fight card, but the pick here isn't a difficult one. It's essentially impossible to back Perez against a top-ten opponent, which Nicolau clearly is, until we see some improvement. If he struggles here, he may not get the chance to show it.
THE PICK: Nicolau
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (21-9-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Spann ($8,900), Guskov ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Spann (-200), Guskov (+165)
The record doesn't tell the entire story regarding Spann's UFC run. He's 7-4 in 11 fights for the promotion and that's even with losing his last two. Not bad, right? Well, his best victories are Dominick Reyes, Ion Cutelaba, and Devin Clark. There's a case to be made he deserved a decision over Anthony Smith in his most recent bout last August but it didn't go his way. Essentially, Spann, while better than the lowest-level heavyweights on the roster, has virtually zero long-term upside.
Our exposure to Guskov is exactly two fights and a little over seven minutes. Each of his two UFC bouts resulted in first-round stoppages. He was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir and rebounded to knockout Zac Pauga this past February. This is a very quick turnaround for Guskov, who will be fighting for the second time in less than three months.
This is an interesting fight from a stylistic standpoint. Spann has six knockout wins in his career but his power is nowhere near the level you see from most light heavyweights. He's a much better grappler, with a dozen career wins via submission. Guskov, on the other hand, has insane power and little else. 13 of his 15 career wins have come via knockout. A prolonged slugfest most definitely favors Bogdan.
Arguably Spann's greatest attribute is the fact he's gigantic for 205 pounds. At 6-foot-5, he's two inches taller than Guskov and will enter with a three-inch reach edge. I can't imagine Guskov is used to fighting as the smaller man all that often. He's going to have to figure out a way to get inside against Spann considering virtually all of his offense comes from his hands.
Bogdan gave up one takedown to Oezdemir -- a guy not known as a grappler -- but stuffed both of Pauga's attempts.
This is one of those picks that simply comes down to value. As mentioned earlier, I don't rate Spann all that highly. There's a real chance Guskov is no better, but after just two appearences I'm inclined to get him the benefit of the doubt. Ultimately, I just can't wrap my head around spending upwards of $9K on Spann against most anyone. I'd much rather allocate my funds elsewhere and hope Guskov is able to blast him like he did Pauga.
THE PICK: Guskov
Women's Flyweight
Ariane Lipski (17-8-0) v. Karine Silva (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Lipski ($7,700), Silva ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Lipski (+125), Silva (-150)
Lipski began her UFC run with four losses in her first six fights, but she's really turned it on of late, winning three straight and four of her last five. Her most recent bout was a second-round submission win over Casey O'Neill last December, arguably her most impressive performance to date. Lipski lacks high-end physical skills, but she's a pretty well-rounded competitor and is closing in on 30 professional fights.
Silva represents a very stiff test, however. The Brazilian is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC and going back to her victory on Dana White's Contender Series, has racked up four straight submission wins overall. Two of those wins came via guillotine choke, while one was a kneebar and the other a brabo choke. In short, Silva is more than a one-trick pony. She can win a fight in a variety of different ways, and also have nine knockout victories on her resume.
Everything here is nearly identical from a physical standpoint. Lipski is an inch taller and about two months younger. Both women have a 67-inch reach.
The main concern regarding Lipski is a lack of durability. Half of her eight career defeats have come via knockout. Among those who have finished her via strikes during her UFC run include Priscilia Cachoeira, Montana De La Rosa, and Antonina Shevchenko. It's the only knockout of De La Rosa's career, and just one of three in the pro career of Shevchenko. In short, I'm worried about Ariane's ability to stay upright against an opponent in Silva with some legitimate power. The fact Lipski tends to keep her chin high during striking exchanges doesn't help matters, either.
While Lipski is a threat on the mat, Silva looks like the far better wrestler. She's averaging 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and I'm nearly certainly Ariane will be less effective from a submission standpoint if she finds herself fighting off of her back.
With Silva being the better wrestler and Lipski having durability issues, this is an easy pick. It's also worth noting that significant money has come in on Silva throughout the lead up to the fight. She opened as a +110 underdog, and is now a -160 favorite.
THE PICK: Silva
Welterweight
Tim Means (33-15-1, 1NC) v. Uros Medic (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Means ($7,100), Medic ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Means (+250), Medic (-310)
Now 40 years of age, Means snapped a three-fight losing streak and saved his job with a knockout win over Andre Fialho last September. Now, everyone -- literally -- knocks out Fialho, so the victory doesn't mean it ton, but it did ensure Means wasn't handing his walking papers.
Medic has been up and down, going 3-2 with the UFC, with all five fights coming via stoppage. He's proven to be pretty durable for a guy who is primarily a brawler, but I still don't think there's enough here for Medic to improve much past the .500 mark moving forward. He has the look of little more than roster depth.
Means is a difficult guy to prepare for. He's long, lanky and constantly in your face. He's been knocked out just twice in 50 professional fights, so you know he isn't going anywhere. If you plan on finishing him, you're going to have to earn it.
I've been impressed with Medic's activity level, particularly on the feet. I wouldn't call him a gifted striker or anything like that and his power comes and goes at times, but he tries to stay busy and make life miserable for his opposition. He's much like Means in that way, just with nearly 40 fewer pro fights under his belt.
I'm curious to see if Means tries to wrestle. He only averages 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, but one well-timed shot could very easy steal a round, and if nothing else, would serve to halt Medic's momentum on the feet, which is really the only way he's shown he can win a fight.
Medic is just an inch shorter than Means, although he's giving up four inches in reach. He's also nearly a decade younger. I have on interest in paying up his salary, but given where both men are at in their respective careers, Medic deserves to be favored and the pick.
THE PICK: Medic
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Austen Lane (12-4-0, 1NC) v. Jhonata Diniz (6-0-0)
DK Salaries: Lane ($7,200), Diniz ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Lane (+200), Diniz (-245)
THE PICK: Diniz
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce (14-5-0) v. David Onama (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pearce ($8,600), Onama ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Pearce (-175), Onama (+145)
THE PICK: Pearce
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya (28-11-1, 1NC) v. Victor Henry (23-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Yahya ($6,700), Henry ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (+360), Henry (-470)
THE PICK: Henry
Lightweight
Austin Hubbard (16-7-0) v. Michal Figlak (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hubbard ($7,800), Figlak ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Hubbard (+140), Figlak (-165)
THE PICK: Hubbard
Heavyweight
Don'Tale Mayes (10-6-0, 1NC) v. Caio Machado (8-2-1)
DK Salaries: Mayes ($7,900), Machado ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Mayes (-105), Machado (-115)
THE PICK: Mayes
Women's Strawweight
Marnic Mann (6-2-0) v. Ketlen Souza (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Mann ($7,000), Souza ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Mann (+260), Souza (-325)
THE PICK: Souza
Lightweight
Chris Padilla (13-6-0) v. James Llontop (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Padilla ($6,900), Llontop ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Padilla (+265), Llontop (-345)
THE PICK: Llontop
Women's Flyweight
Ivana Petrovic (6-1-0) v. Na Liang (19-7-0)
DK Salaries: Petrovic ($9,400), Na ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Petrovic (-560), Na (+380)
THE PICK: Petrovic
Lightweight
Gabriel Benitez (23-12-0) v. Hayisaer Maheshate (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Benitez ($7,400), Maheshate ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Benitez (+165), Maheshate (-200)
THE PICK: Maheshate
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 91 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
