This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Dustin Jacoby (16-5-1) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-4-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: We have a clash between knockout artists to start the night. Jacoby will have a slight size advantage and will likely look to work from range with constant pressure and high volume. Oleksiejczuk likes to stay patient, slowly working his way into the pocket and throwing heavy shots to the head and body.
DFS Perspective: Someone is likely going down early in this fight. Both guys throw heavy and are looking to end it early. However, both guys have only been knocked out one time, so a slow decision is possible.
My Pick: Jacoby
Devonte Smith (11-3-0) v. Ludovit Klein (17-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Smith started his UFC sting with two consecutive knockouts but has since been knocked out twice while adding one more knockout win. He is a dangerous striker with excellent movement, forward pressure and heavy hands. Klein has struggled badly in two consecutive fights and now finds himself across from a big striker. However, he is a powerful kickboxer with considerable power in his legs, as well as great takedowns and submissions.
DFS Perspective: Another fight that I believe ends early. Smith should score a knockout if this stays on the feet and avoids Klein's kicks. Klein should look to take this to the ground and force Smith to struggle on the mat.
My Pick: Smith
Tim Elliott (18-12-1) v. Tagir Ulanbekov (14-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Elliott is a UFC vet, and you know exactly what you will get from him every fight. He has decent striking but thrives on the mat, where he will look to chain takedowns and keep control or find a submission. Ulanbekov is still green with only two fights in the UFC but won both by decision. He is a wrestling machine, averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and will look to implement a takedown/control game early and often.
DFS Perspective: I think this fight comes down to cardio, and whoever lasts longer will end up being the winner. I give the cardio edge to Ulanbekov, but when two guys are struggling on the mat, anything can happen.
My Pick: Ulanbekov
Brian Kelleher (24-12-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (13-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Kelleher has impressed in consecutive unanimous decision wins, dominating with takedowns ground control for 15 minutes. He is a strong striker with a massive left and the cardio to chain takedowns, in addition to an elite guillotine. Nurmagomedov last fought just over a year ago, making his debut in highlight fashion with a second-round rear-naked choke. He is a strong striker with fast hands, elite defense and phenomenal takedown and submission game.
DFS Perspective: As impressive as Kelleher has been on the mat lately, I think he is outmatched here. I expect Nurmagomedov to ragdoll Kelleher until he finds an early finish.
My Pick: Nurmagomedov
Maryna Moroz (10-3-0) v. Mariya Agapova (10-2-0)
Fight Analysis: Moroz enters on a two-fight win streak of unanimous decisions, where she dominated on the mat for 15 minutes. She is a decent striker with solid volume, good movement, and is excellent on the mat when she can take control. Agapova made a statement in her last fight, controlling for two rounds before finding a submission to end it less than a minute into the third. She is a high-volume striker with quick hands, solid power and above-average grappling.
DFS Perspective: Moroz has not fought in two years due to various cancellations but had a couple of solid wins before that. I expect her to come out and test the ground game of Agapova, as she likely gets outpointed on the feet. Agapova should dominate the stand-up, but anything on the mat might be more of a toss-up. I expect her to keep it upright and floor Moroz with her power.
My Pick: Agapova
Nicolae Negumereanu (11-1-0) v. Kennedy Znechukwu (9-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Negumereanu struck gold with a 78-second knockout in his last fight. He is a powerful striker with considerable power and constantly prods forward with immense pressure. Nzechukwu had his three-fight win streak snapped with a nasty first-round knockout loss in his most recent contest. He is a patient striker who will sport a 5-inch reach advantage and will likely sit back waiting to counter as his opponent rushes in.
DFS Perspective: This is a tough test for Negumereanu, but if he can crash the pocket and blitz Nzechukwu, he could wind up scoring an early knockout. I expect the opposite, however, with Nzechukwu testing Negumereanu's chin as he pressures forward.
My Pick: Znechukwu
Marina Rodriguez (15-1-2) v. Yan Xiaonan (13-2-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Striker's delight on tap for this top-5 women's fight. Rodriguez rides in on a three-fight win streak after dominating for 25 minutes to earn a unanimous decision last time out. She is an excellent striker with crisp jabs, high-volume and phenomenal footwork. Xiaonan had her UFC unbeaten streak halt at six after suffering a second-round knockout in her previous contest. She is a high-volume, technical striker with great movement and great slip-and-rip ability.
DFS Perspective: This should be a Fight of the Night contender when all is said and done. Both ladies love to throw and do so with a lot of volume. I do not put one in front of the other and expect this to be tightly contested for 15 minutes.
My Pick: Xiaonan
Jalin Turner (11-5-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (14-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Turner has won three in a row, all by finish, with the most recent a first-round submission after four minutes. He is a well-rounded fighter with high-volume striking and power, as well as excellent takedowns and submissions. Mullarkey enters on a two-fight win streak, having finished both, with the most recent a knockout nearly three minutes into the second round. He is a decent striker with considerable power, great takedowns and powerful ground-and-pound.
DFS Perspective: Both guys could find a finish here. I think Turner has the better defense and will dictate where this fight goes and the pace at which it moves.
My Pick: Turner
Serghei Spivac (13-3-0) v. Greg Hardy (7-4-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Spivac had his three-fight winning streak end after a vicious knockout in the first round of his most recent fight. However, he is a well-rounded heavyweight with decent volume and power, great takedowns and deadly ground-and-pound. Hardy continued his lackluster performances, losing a second consecutive fight by knockout in July. He is a technical striker with significant power, moderate volume and strong takedown defense.
DFS Perspective: Hardy has not given me any reason to think he can win against decent competition. Spivac has shown he can take the fight anywhere and do well, so I will lean with him to win.
My Pick: Spivac
Kevin Holland (21-7-0, 1NC) v. Alex Oliveira (22-11-1, 2NC)
Fight Analysis: Holland is cutting to 170 after dropping two decisions and fighting to a no-contest in his last three bouts at 185. He is a rangy striker with decent volume, good footwork and an improved ground game. Oliveira is fighting with his back against the wall, having lost six of the last eight fights and three in a row. He is a low-volume striker with great takedowns and submissions.
DFS Perspective: Oliveira can succeed if he gets this fight to the mat and threatens a submission. Holland will look to keep this on the feet and should be able to do so while striking at range. I expect Holland to come out fast and get himself back in the win column.
My Pick: Holland
Edson Barboza (22-10-0) v. Bryce Mitchell (14-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Barboza enters the night having lost his most recent bout by knockout early in the third round. However, he is a solid fighter with clean technical striking, excellent defense and deadly kicks. Mitchell is riding a four-fight UFC win streak, winning the most recent by unanimous decision after dominating with takedowns and control time through 15 minutes. He is a tough all-around fighter with quick hands, exceptional takedowns and excellent submissions.
DFS Perspective: Barboza wins if this fight stays on the feet. Mitchell wins if he can get takedowns. Barboza has struggled with grapplers before, so I will lean with Mitchell to take this one.
My Pick: Mitchell
Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) v. Renato Moicano (16-4-1)
Fight Analysis: RDA is back in the cage after just over a year, having won his most recent fight by a five-round split decision. He is a well-rounded fighter with powerful striking, excellent movement and solid defense. Moicano is a short-notice replacement and fought last just three weeks ago, winning by second-round submission. He is a high-volume striker with excellent takedowns, elite defense and a penchant for finishing fights early.
DFS Perspective: This will be a tough fight for both guys. RDA has shown struggles with good grapplers, and he pulls another one with Moicano. However, if he can avoid the mat and keep the fight upright, I expect him to win relatively easily. Moicano is no slouch with striking but should get outpointed by RDA here. His path to victory is by racking up takedowns and control time or hunting for a submission.
My Pick: RDA
Colby Covington (16-3-0) v. Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0)
Fight Analysis: The fight of the night!! Masvidal is riding a two-fight losing streak, both against the current champ, with the most recent being a knockout early in the second round. However, he is a well-rounded fighter with powerful hands, great footwork,and solid defense. Covington is also coming in on a loss from the current champ, losing a unanimous decision after five close rounds. However, he is a solid all-around fighter with high-volume striking, excellent takedowns and elite cardio.
DFS Perspective: This should be a hell of a fight that finally brings the feud to an end. Masvidal has serious power and will have five rounds to land a knockout. If he is unable to, he likely loses. Convington will be pushing a serious pace and should dominate volume, as well as mixing in takedowns and control time to tip rounds in his favor.
My Pick: Covington
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
