Bills vs Broncos Predictions & Odds for NFL Playoffs Divisional Round (2026)

The Buffalo Bills take on the Denver Broncos in the first matchup of the 2025-26 NFL Divisional Round. The Broncos enter this one as slim 1.5-point home favorites, meaning sportsbooks view this one as a toss-up. You can bet those odds using a bet365 bonus code. 

Below, the RotoWire staff will give you our expert Bills vs Broncos predictions, including everything you need to know about the spread, over/under, and more. 

Bills vs Broncos Odds: Divisional Round

All odds in the table below are sourced from BetMGM. Use a BetMGM Bonus Code to juice up your bets. Note that odds may have moved after this article was published. 

Bills vs Broncos Prediction

The Bills are 9-1 when James Cook goes for 100-plus rushing yards and 4-4 when he falls under that mark. They would probably be 0-8 in those games had Josh Allen not turned into Superman. Including last week, he averaged a staggering 354.0 total yards per game in those four wins with a whopping 17 touchdowns to two turnovers. 

Buffalo will probably need Allen to toss on his cape once again on Saturday; it's tough to see Cook getting going against Denver. The Broncos were the league's second-best run defense in EPA per play and allowed successful runs at a bottom-eight rate in the regular season.

This Denver defense is arguably his toughest test yet, but I'm not betting against Josh Allen. I'm not convinced Denver is still the juggernaut we saw for most of the year. From their Week 12 bye to the last time we saw their starters (Week 17), Denver's D ranked No. 18 in EPA per play and No. 20 in EPA per dropback. That's a huge decline from their first 11 games, when they ranked No. 4 and No. 3 in those metrics, respectively. 

Injuries had a lot to do with that dip, but if we're nitpicking, Denver's defense does have one notable weakness – they struggle against tight ends. The Broncos allowed the ninth-most yards in the league to the position this year. That's something Buffalo is built to exploit. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are arguably the best healthy pass-catchers on the team right now. 

On the other side of the ball, the way to beat this Bills' defense is generating explosive runs. I don't think Denver can do that. R.J. Harvey had the second-worst explosive run rate among the 49 RBs with 100-plus carries this season. 

It won't be pretty, but Buffalo has just enough matchup advantages to keep this close and let Josh Allen shut the door on the Broncos' season. 

• ⭐️ Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills Win, 24-17

Bills vs Broncos Expert Predictions 

Here's a look at the RotoWire Staff's Bills vs Broncos moneyline predictions: 

• Brandon Justice: Bills
• Tyler Huntington: Bills
• Blake Weishaar: Bills
• Max Staley: Bills

All four RotoWire experts are backing the Bills' moneyline on Sunday. A consensus here is surprising considering this is the smallest spread of the Divisional Round. 

RotoWire Staff Moneyline Prediction Record 

Below, I've detailed the RotoWire staff's moneyline prediction record in the 2025-26 regular season and the NFL Playoffs. 

2025-26 Regular Season: 

• Brandon Justice: 168-104
• Blake Weishaar: 167-105
• Tyler Huntington: 156-116
• Max Staley: 151-121

2025-26 NFL Playoffs: 

• Brandon Justice: 5-1
• Tyler Huntington: 5-1
• Blake Weishaar: 5-1
• Max Staley: 5-1

Where to Bet on NFL Playoffs Odds 

Below, I've listed the major sportsbooks that offer betting markets on this game. I've also included their welcome offers, so you can kickstart your account with some bonus bets.