This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
After a one-week break in between races, F1 returns with a trip to Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix. It will be the third race of the season, with things largely playing out as expected to this point with dominant performances by Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing. We shouldn't project that to change, but there are still plenty of other projections to look at on PrizePicks.
NASCAR will also fittingly do its best F1 impression, as they'll head to COTA in Austin, Texas for the Echo Park Automotive 400 – the first road course of the season. A few years ago, there were only a few drivers that specialized in road courses, but we've seen the field make a more concerted effort to improve on that genre of track. That opens up the field a bit for our purposes. The track style also makes things a bit more interesting on PrizePicks, as specialists such as AJ Allmendinger and Shane van Gisbergen have been added to the player pool this weekend.
Let's take a look at some of our favorite projections for this weekend's highest profile races.
Australian Grand Prix
Lando Norris – Starting position more than 5.5
There's a limited amount that the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grand Prix will tell us about Australia and more traditional circuits, but the McLaren hasn't looked to have the one-lap pace for Norris to consistently hit this mark. He qualified sixth in Saudi Arabia, but that was with the benefit of Carlos Sainz Jr. not being in his Ferrari. Both Ferrari and both Red Bulls have the pace to qualify better than Norris consistently, meaning he'll be in a fight with Fernando Alonso, teammate Oscar Piastri, and both Mercedes drivers to get onto the third row of the grid. It's possible he does that, but the odds aren't in his favor.
Lance Stroll – Starting position more than 9.5
The F1 field has been split pretty clearly into the haves and have nots this season, with the one driver stuck in between being Stroll. Given the advantage in pace that Stroll has in the Aston Martin, he should get into Q3 consistently (he's one-for-two this season). Even if he does, however, he'd need to top another driver, which looks less likely Teammate Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes would likely be the most susceptible to Stroll, but the difference in driver quality between that trio is stark.
Lewis Hamilton – Starting position more than 7.5
Hamilton has started both races of the season worse than this projection, but there are more reasons to doubt his potential this weekend. Speaking to the media after the second practice session, Hamilton said it was the least confident that he's felt in the car. It's possible that he and Mercedes make some tweaks to the setup to maximize the performance, but Hamilton has generally looked uncomfortable in this car early in the calendar. There will be one more data point in Q3 to consider as well.
Echo Park Automotive Grand Prix Picks
Shane van Gisbergen – Less than 7.5 starting position; more than 35.5 NASCAR points (top-five finish with no stage wins)
Van Gisbergen dominated the field in his first race in the series in Chicago last season by qualifying third and winning the race. While he didn't have as much success one month later at the Indy Road Course, he has a background in Supercars and the GT Championship, giving him an advantage over the average Cup Series driver at a track like COTA. He's also racing full-time in the Xfinity Series this season for the first time, helping him gain more experience in the NASCAR series. There is some risk involved due to the fact that we're relying on a small sample, but the combination of van Gisbergen's background in racing and new experience stateside should lead to a successful weekend.
Tyler Reddick – Less than 37.5 points (fourth or lower finish with no stage wins)
Reddick was originally regarded as a road-course specialist. While he's emerged as one of the better overall drivers in NASCAR, his success at road courses is undisputed. Specifically, he has the second-highest driver rating (behind Chase Elliott) across the last three years. That's all to say this pick isn't an indictment of Reddick as a driver, but is more a realistic check-in on the projection. Even with his strong history, Reddick has gone over this projection just once in three chances at COTA and just four of 18 races at all road races since 2021.
Ross Chastain - More than 35.5 NASCAR points (top-five finish with no stage wins)
Chastain doesn't have the same reputation on road courses as the first two drivers we've highlighted, but he has had excellent success at COTA. Since 2021, he has the highest driver rating of the entire field and has finished no worse than fourth. He's shown the ability to move through the field in that same span, as he started 20th, 12th, and 16th. That history also tells us that another potential selection would be to take Chastain with a starting position of more than 12.5.
Alex Bowman – More than 31.5 NASCAR points (top-nine finish with no stage wins)
There's a case to be made to take the over on every Hendrick driver's projection, but Bowman has the lowest number to clear. His record at the track also rivals that of teammate Chase Elliott, who has the second-highest projection of the weekend (36.5). This could one of Bowman's better chances for a race win, and he's coming off a solid fifth-place finish at Bristol – potentially giving him a needed confidence boost.
Denny Hamlin – Less than 29.5 NASCAR points (12th or worse with no stage wins)
Hamlin has talked about his desire to improve at street tracks, and he's had moments of success by grabbing the pole in Chicago and finishing second at Watkins Glen in 2023. Overall, his resume remains underwhelming, however, particularly at COTA where he has never finished better than 14th. This is one of the lower numbers we'll see for Hamlin all season, but even so, I'm willing to go under based on his track history.
