NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Preview: Crowning the Champion

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

The finale of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived. After 35 events of spectacular crashes, dominating performances, and surprise comebacks, we have finally reached the championship-crowning moment of the sport. The drama has been building all season long, and even more so the last several weeks of the Chase. For several years NASCAR has crowned its champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but four seasons ago the sanctioning body moved this championship race to Phoenix Raceway. The Phoenix track in Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees. The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. It is truly a unique facility among those on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, and very fitting that it now determines the series champion. 

Since Phoenix Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well. Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix. However, one theme will be quite clear. Four drivers come to the Arizona desert in a dead-heat for the championship. The format of the Chase has narrowed the field to Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and William Byron. It all comes down to one race for all the marbles and all four drivers start even at 5,000 points. The stakes and the pressure have never been higher. If anything, the last two weeks have shown us at Homestead and Martinsville, this has been a wild Chase for the Cup and anything can happen. The racing has been highly competitive and the fall out has made for some wild action on the track.  So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

For the first time since March, we're racing at Phoenix Raceway. It was almost eight months ago that the NASCAR Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert. Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Shriners Children's 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 19 seasons at the Phoenix oval for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the loop stats for the last 38 races at the Phoenix oval.

If anyone hopes to pull a surprise upset in the championship finale, we need to examine each of the four drivers carefully to make that prediction. Two of our four championship contenders are past winners at the desert oval. Joey Logano (2016, 2020, 2022) and William Byron (2023) are past Phoenix winners. However, we can't count out the red-hot Ryan Blaney, coming off his big win at Martinsville this past weekend. He has three victories this season and has won and finished runner-up in the last two races. Despite being winless at Phoenix Raceway, Blaney may have the best odds this weekend of taking the victory and the championship as well. He has finished runner-up three times in recent Phoenix races and has a staggering six-race Phoenix Top-5 streak coming into this weekend. Don't count out Tyler Reddick either. He was a non-factor at Martinsville last Sunday, finishing 34th-place. However, Reddick is a three-time winner this season and he was dramatically improved at Phoenix earlier this season, leading 68 laps and finishing 10th-place. He's probably the lowest odds of the four drivers to win the championship, but Reddick has shown real gut, grit and determination this season to advance into the championship round of the playoffs. 

These drivers will be joined by short track specialists Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott in racing for the checkers this weekend. All four have been eliminated from the Chase, but they are all looking to end the season with a win and the momentum it would carry into the off-season. One thing is for certain, when the green flag drops at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday afternoon the fireworks will fly as these drivers compete for the big stakes at the desert oval. We'll examine those championship contending teams who are racing for all the marbles this weekend at the Phoenix short track and those who could sneak up and surprise the championship contending teams.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – By the strength of a win at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday, Blaney propelled himself into racing for the championship this week at Phoenix. He'll ride that momentum in the Arizona desert to hopefully a second Cup Series title. Blaney has 15-career starts at Phoenix Raceway with 12 Top-10 finishes to his credit. That works out to a strong 71-percent rate and 10.9 average finish for the youngster at the Arizona oval. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has improved tremendously on short tracks during the last three seasons. Blaney rides a six-race Phoenix Top-5 streak into this weekend that includes three runner-up finishes. He will very likely be the man to beat Sunday in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.     

Kyle Larson – Larson won't be racing for the championship this Sunday; however, the veteran driver is a six-time winner this season and always a threat to visit victory lane. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event three years ago for his first Phoenix victory and he cracks the Top 5 at this short track at a very strong 40-percent rate. Short tracks have been among his best ovals this season with three pole positions, one win, two runner-up finishes, seven Top 5's and 918 laps led in 10 events on tracks one-mile in size or less. Momentum may not be on Larson's side this weekend as he is not racing for the championship but let's not forget he just registered a strong third-place finish at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday.  

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has been fair this season on the short tracks and rides a four-race short track Top-10 streak into the final event of the season. Chastain's big boost in fantasy value this weekend lies in his recent success at the Desert Jewel. He's a one-time winner at Phoenix, this event one year ago, and he finished runner-up here in 2022. Chastain has carved out four Top-10 finishes in his last five Phoenix starts and he's led 158 laps during that span. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet was a steady sixth-place earlier this season at the Arizona short track. While Chastain may not be battling for the championship, he's one of a handful of playoff outsiders that could jump up and surprise this weekend.

William Byron – Despite finishing sixth-place at Martinsville this past weekend, Byron is locked into the championship round and will race for the title on Sunday. Byron has been skilled on the short tracks in 2024. He won earlier in the season at Martinsville Speedway, has led close to 200 laps, has two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes for a respectable 15.8 average finish. Byron's 13 Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway have netted a victory and seven Top-10 finishes (54-percent) so this has been a decent oval for the No. 24 team. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has one Xfinity Series victory at this small oval (2017) so he knows how to navigate the irregular D-shaped track in the desert. Byron should battle for the win Sunday afternoon in the Arizona desert.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star was able to win at Las Vegas a few weeks ago and that propelled him into the Championship 4. That's the good news. The bad news is that short tracks have been a bit of a mixed bag for Logano this season with just four Top 10's (40-percent) and a 17.5 average finish, but he is coming off a solid 10th-place effort at Martinsville Speedway this past weekend. Logano is a three-time winner at Phoenix Raceway (2016, 2020 and 2022) and his 900+ laps led here make him one of the most successful drivers at Phoenix Raceway in recent seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford owns a strong 51-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel, so we should see a gutsy performance from Logano. However, we don't feel he'll be in top contention to win.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star was eliminated from the Championship 4 despite finishing fifth at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday. The points earned were simply not enough to allow advancement in the playoffs. This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering. He has two victories and 22 Top-10 finishes in his Phoenix resume. That works out to a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. With an impressive average finish of 10.8 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough short track. Hamlin's riding a three-race Top-10 streak on short tracks coming into this event. He'll be strong despite not racing for the 2024 crown.    

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster won the spring event at Phoenix Raceway, so he'll be on everyone's radar screens this weekend for the possible season sweep of the desert oval. Bell now has five Top-10 finishes in nine-career starts at the Phoenix track and that works out to a respectable 56-percent rate. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota had a poor outing at Martinsville this past weekend and was eliminated from the Championship 4 after his questionable wall-riding tactic at the end of that race. Still, Bell has been consistent and impressive on the short tracks this season. With seven Top 10's in 10 events on the one-mile and less in size ovals, the 70-percent Top-10 rate is difficult to ignore.       

Chase Briscoe – The Stewart Haas Racing youngster is a non-championship driver that should have some impact this weekend. The driver of the No. 14 Ford has been good on some short tracks this season and Phoenix is one of those facilities. Briscoe's fantasy racing utility will continue to have worth yet again this week. He won at Phoenix Raceway two seasons ago and he sports a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel. This driver and team have been consistent on short tracks in 2024 with a 40-percent Top-10 rate and 14.3 average finish. Briscoe and crew chief, Richard Boswell, likely have some very good notes from their outing in March at Phoenix Raceway (ninth-place) and will exploit them to good effect in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been a top short track performer in 2024 and is coming off runner-up performances at both Bristol and Martinsville during the Chase playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has racked up six Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes on the bullrings this season, and that's tops in the series. Elliott won't be racing for a championship this weekend, but that shouldn't deter him from his current short track momentum. He's a one-time Phoenix winner and has a steady 50-percent Top-10 rate at the Arizona short track. Elliott hasn't had a good Phoenix finish in his last three starts, but he should rebound nicely in Sunday's final race of the season.  

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex looked like he was ready for the season to end after last Sunday's Martinsville race. He had a car fast enough to lead laps and challenge the Top 5 but ran into trouble and finished 24th-place in the Xfinity 500. That's a short track that he used to dominate in recent seasons, but not this year. The schedule holds another short track for him this week, and another where Truex has had recent success. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota won and finished runner-up at this track in 2021 and he rides a two-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. That has lifted his Top-10 rate at Phoenix to a reasonable 43-percent. We expect him to be fast again this weekend, and hopefully with some better luck.      

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been pretty strong on the short tracks in the 2024 campaign. He has earned two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on ovals one-mile in size and less. That works out to a reasonable 40-percent Top-10 rate and steady 13.5 average finish on the bullrings. Phoenix Raceway hasn't held much career-long success for this driver and team, but Buescher's last two trips to the Arizona desert have yielded Top-5 finishes, including a runner-up finish in the spring of this year. Those are hopeful performances and when combined with Buescher's improved racing of late on short tracks, likely a good sign that he's a Top-10 finisher in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race. 

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is likely the longest shot of the championship contending drivers, so we've ranked him in the sleepers list this week. He'll likely turn in the best performance he can and that will make the driver of the No. 45 Toyota good enough for outside fantasy racing consideration. Reddick hasn't been the best on short tracks this season with a 50-percent Top-10 rate and 15.3 average finish. Also, Phoenix Raceway isn't his best short track either (33-percent Top-10 rate, 17.9 average finish). Still, he did lead 68 laps there in the spring of this year and collect a steady 10th-place finish in the Shriners Children's 500. That's likely a good mark to expect for this Sunday afternoon.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver fetched a steady ninth-place finish at Martinsville last week so he's in good position coming to Arizona. Keselowski has been good on the bullrings this season. He has five Top-10 finishes in 10 starts for a good 50-percent rate and steady 15.8 average finish. The veteran driver has never won at the Desert Jewel, but he's finished runner-up there twice over the years and he cracks the Top 10 at the Arizona short track at a respectable 47-percent. Keselowski's 13.6 average finish at Phoenix Raceway reflects the only 2 DNF's he's suffered there in 15 seasons of racing there. So, he's most often running at the end and on the lead lap. He collected an impressive fourth-place in March's Shriners Children's 500.

Ty Gibbs – With an outside pole position and strong third-place finish at Phoenix Raceway in the spring, Gibbs posted his career-best performance at the Arizona short track in just his third-career Cup Series start. The 57 laps led were also eye-catching for the No. 54 Toyota team. That performance erased a couple mediocre efforts at Phoenix Raceway for Gibbs in 2023. The Joe Gibbs Racing prodigy has had a mixed-bag season on the short tracks with just a 30-percent Top-10 rate and pedestrian 16.7 average finish. However, we believe Gibbs could shake that off in Sunday's final race of the season because of his success at this oval earlier in the season. He qualified really well at Martinsville this past weekend, so speed is not an issue.   

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Austin Cindric – Cindric is the head-scratching pick for fantasy racing games this weekend. He's been pretty terrible on short tracks all of this season. At least until last week's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. The Penske Racing youngster qualified mid-pack at 24th on the starting grid. However, Cindric would put on a masterful performance and race his way up to a shocking fourth-place finish last Sunday. That effort totally bucked the trend of his short track outings this season. We're going to bet that performance was an outlier and he's going to revert to more familiar short track form at Phoenix. This will be Cindric's sixth-career Cup Series start at the Phoenix oval, and he has only one Top-15 finish to boast vs. three finishes outside the Top 25. That works out to a 26.2 average finish.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The superspeedway specialist is nearly always a fantasy fade when we visit one of the series' short tracks. Stenhouse has a pair of Top 10's (20-percent) this season on the bullrings but he's failed to get inside the Top 20 in his last three short track starts. The 24.6 average finish across the 2024 season on the small ovals should give us all caution. As for Phoenix Raceway, the veteran driver has 23-career starts in the Arizona desert and only two Top-10 finishes (9-percent) to account for. That works out to a 21.6 average finish which is nearly head on the 21st-place finish he recorded there in March of this season. Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team are not due any fantasy consideration in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.       

Kyle Busch – Perhaps no other "star driver" has struggled more this season than Busch. We don't expect a reversal in the final race of the 2024 campaign. Last week at Martinsville, he struggled to a distant 28th-place finish. That performance was emblematic of the struggles Busch and his team have had on bullrings this season. Busch has just one Top-10 finish in 10 starts this season on short tracks and an uninspiring 22.2 average finish. Even though Busch has outstanding career numbers at Phoenix Raceway (3 wins, 26 Top 10's), we believe his struggles will continue in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.                       

Erik Jones – With just a 25-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix Raceway and 18.5 career average finish at the Desert Jewel, Jones has his issues with this track. He did race to a rare Top-10 finish there in 2019, but that has been the last time Jones visited the Top 10 in Arizona. Jones has had his struggles on short tracks in 2024 with no Top-10 finishes in 10 starts and disappointing 22.2 average finish. This past weekend at Martinsville Speedway was a terrible last look heading into the season finale. Jones struggled to qualify 21st on the grid and struggled to a 19th-place finish in the Xfinity 500 last Sunday. It appears this driver and team are ready for this season to conclude and with all haste.