This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season comes to its conclusion this week at Phoenix Raceway. Ryan Blaney landed his second championship appearance in as many seasons with another clutch victory at Martinsville to advance. He joined Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick as a winner in the final three-race knockout round. Joining them is William Byron who was declared the fourth contender following an anxious wait post-race at Martinsville while NASCAR evaluated Christopher Bell's last-turn pass. Bell was ultimately demoted for the move, handing the championship slot to Byron. With the Martinsville drama and controversy in the rearview mirror, all four contenders need to get down to business at Phoenix quickly. It will be the 57th time the series races at the track and the fifth championship finale. While not required, winning is preferred. Four out of those five championship races held at Phoenix were earned by winning the race. However, Blaney bucked that trend last year to claim the title with a second-place finish behind Ross Chastain. Points are not a concern for the four championship drivers this week. Their focus is just finishing ahead of the other three contenders. The highest-placing driver of those four will raise the most important trophy of the season this Sunday.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of races: 56
- Winners from pole: 7
- Winners from top-5 starters: 22
- Winners from top-10 starters: 32
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Previous 10 Phoenix Winners
2024 spring - Christopher Bell
2023 fall - Ross Chastain
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Chase Briscoe
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Chase Elliott
2020 spring - Joey Logano
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
Phoenix Raceway is an oblong 1.0-mile oval where every turn is different than the prior, placing extra emphasis on mechanical grip. The track is relatively flat and offers many options for drivers to adjust their lines to suit their car. While track position is a critical factor overall, it isn't impossible to win when starting deeper in the field. However, a large majority of winners have come from the top 10 starting positions. Given the emphasis on mechanical grip, fresh tires are an obvious advantage, and drivers that can manage tire wear will also drive to the front. Teams will search for the balance between fresh tires and track position throughout the race's 500 laps, and two-tire stops could be used to gain position, especially late in the race. The ability to make up ground on restarts at this track is enhanced by its lack of an out-of-bounds line, and drivers will take advantage of that, fanning out well below the banking where possible in an effort to make passes. Drivers will seek a car that works well in traffic and gives them the most grip possible to maintain speed through the track's several long corners, giving them chances to make passes and hopefully win the race.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ryan Blaney - $11,200
William Byron - $11,000
Joey Logano - $10,800
Tyler Reddick - $10,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Denny Hamlin - $9,800
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Ross Chastain - $9,300
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Brad Keselowski - $8,600
Chase Briscoe - $8,400
Chris Buescher - $8,200
Kyle Busch - $8,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Bubba Wallace - $7,800
Alex Bowman - $7,700
Austin Dillon - $7,000
Carson Hocevar - $6,700
NASCAR DFS Picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
William Byron - $11,000
Ross Chastain - $9,300
Chase Briscoe - $8,400
Chris Buescher - $8,200
Carson Hocevar - $6,700
Michael McDowell - $6,400
As expected, the championship contenders command premium prices this week at Phoenix. Each of the four contenders has the ultimate incentive to perform well, and it wouldn't be surprising if they finished first through fourth. The goal of fantasy managers is to find the one of the four that presents their roster the best possible value. William Byron (DK $11,000, FD $13,500) may fit that expectation. He doesn't have the current momentum of Blaney, but many trends point his direction. Byron is a former Phoenix winner who also finished sixth or better in the last six races leading up to the championship decider. Consistency is on his side, and being the lone focus in the championship fight for Hendrick Motorsports may give him more support this than he would typically have otherwise. Last year's winner, Ross Chastain (DK $9,300, FD $10,500) was one of the drivers that helped Byron advance last week. While Chastain's team is paying the price for that with fines and suspensions off track, on track, he is not one to pass up at Phoenix. He started mastering the circuit in 2022 and hasn't looked back since, amassing three top-fives and a top-10 in the five most recent races there. Another consistent Phoenix performer is Chase Briscoe (DK $8,400, FD $8,000). The future Joe Gibbs Racing driver won 2022's spring race at this track and tallied three top-10s from the four visits since then.
Chris Buescher (DK $8,200, FD $8,200) has also been proving his abilities at Phoenix. His best finishes there have come with the current generation of car, and his best ever finish at the track was second this spring. Additionally, his average finish from the last five Phoenix races is 10.6 compared with 19.2 from the five prior to that. Considering his recent Phoenix finishes, Buescher should be a lower-risk value option for many rosters this week. The same may be true of Carson Hocevar (DK $6,700, FD $5,800). The Spire Motorsports driver delivered some impressive finishes in the back half of this season including flat ovals like Richmond and Gateway. Fantasy players should expect a top-15 opportunity from him this week. Joining Hocevar at Spire next season is Michael McDowell (DK $6,400, FD $6,800). The current Front Row Motorsports driver's best Phoenix finishes have also come very recently. His finishes of ninth and eighth in the last two track visits suggest is price this week could be undervalued versus his potential.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Ryan Blaney - $11,200
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Brad Keselowski - $8,600
Josh Berry - $7,400
Daniel Suarez - $7,200
Erik Jones - $6,100
While Ryan Blaney (DK $11,200, FD $14,000) may be the favorite this week, he would have to buck a couple of big trends to be successful. First, no driver has won back-to-back races this season. Second, no driver has successfully defended the championship title under the current format. Blaney would be the first to accomplish both of those things if he wins this week at Phoenix. It can surely happen, though. Winning another series championship this week would further cement Blaney as one of the best drivers in the sport. Chase Elliott (DK $9,500, FD $9,500) will be working to ensure that doesn't happen, though. Elliott will be in support of teammate Byron's championship effort, but the best place for Elliott to offer his assistance would be form the front on Sunday. Elliott has been one of the most consistent drivers this season and enters this week's race with three top-fives from the last four races. He won at Phoenix in his championship season, but hasn't finished in the top 10 at the track since the introduction of this current generation of car.
Brad Keselowski (DK $8,600, FD $8,500) has struggled at Phoenix recently, but has found success on similar tracks this season and showed some of that progress with a fourth-place Phoenix finish this past spring. He has never won at the track, but added top-10s at places like Richmond, Gateway, and Martinsville this season. Keselowski may have gotten past his Phoenix slump, which is good reason to consider his selection this week. Josh Berry's (DK $7,400, FD $7,000) best finishes this season are a pair of third-place finishes, one of which was at New Hampshire, which is another flat 1.0-mile oval. Last season, Berry finished 10th at Phoenix while substituting for Chase Elliott. He knows what it takes to be successful at the track and just needs to translate that to his current ride. Daniel Suarez (DK $7,200, FD $6,200) could also take a step forward this week. His teammate has been finding Phoenix success, which gives Suarez a playbook to follow. He has three top-10 finishes at the track and finished 13th or better in three of the last five visits. The final driver to consider at Phoenix should be Erik Jones (DK $6,100, FD $5,000). It hasn't been the smoothest of seasons for the Legacy Motor Club veteran, but there has been several bright spots. One of those was a 13th-place finish at New Hampshire. Logically, Jones has had success at Phoenix, too. His resume has four top-10s from 16 series starts at the track, but hasn't finished in the top 15 there since the race race of 2022.
